neospaceblue
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
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So far Dean is the 7th Category 5 since 2003 in the Atlantic and the 30th recorded Category 5 in the Atlantic.
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I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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not very populated in that area.
Weather Conditions at Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCM.html
Weather Conditions at Cozumel Mexico
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html
Weather Conditions at Chichen-Itza
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCT.html
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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I have some questions but they are related to 92l and not Dean right now hope thats ok. Well to me and my eyes 92l looks to be on life support right now so is that normal for a wave/invest to look like that and does it have to adjust to it's environment and get used to feeding off the heat from the water and adjust to building storms and become tropical or does it only apply to the waves that start off over land like on Africa for example then move off into the ATL. Thanks for your help anyone who can answer these for me.
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W.D. Duncan
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txcntrygrl
Registered User
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Loc: south texas
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I am new here and have a question.
I have read numerous posts and they refer to something called ULL. I am not 100% sure what that is and how it can affect Dean's path. Also is there a way to see this ULL on a given map?
ULL is short for "upper level low." It can affect a tropical system's path by changing the winds at upper levels; these winds are, to a large degree, the features that steer tropical systems. You can see these on water vapor satellite imagery, available from the 's satellite page (among other places). --Clark
Edited by Clark (Tue Aug 21 2007 02:53 AM)
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Waves often fluctuate till they get going (if they do). Plus I think the sheer in that area is high right now so any system will have a hard time getting going under those conditions.
Not all the models are picking up on this. I think one (Canadian model) turned this into a Tropical Storm and pushed it through central Florida exiting the west coast. Hard to say when it hasn't blown up that much.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Cancun radar: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
Closest radar in Mexico, and I haven't found any online radar from Belize or Honduras. If anyone knows of one, please post so we can all watch.
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Jorge Nakazawa
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Mexico City, Mexico
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This is the link for the radar stations operated by the Mexican Meteorological Service. Cancun Radar Image . So far all it seems to be detecting is the outer bands of Dean. Given that Dean is expected to make landfall more to the south, it may be that the central structure will pass at the limit or out of the range of the radar.
PS It seems random chaos has posted this one minute before me. 
Edited by Jorge Nakazawa (Tue Aug 21 2007 02:26 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Unfortunately, based on the improving satellite presentation, it appears Dean is going to at least hold its own, or possibly come in as an intensifying cat 5 to the Yucatan. Hopefully everyone in the affected areas have heeded the warnings as much as possible and have gotten out of harm's way. Given the relatively rapid forward motion of the storm, the area affected by the northern eyewall in particular will suffer a very grave blow.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Neither of those radar sites works for me (one gives a page not found, one just does not load).
Looking at the satellite presentation, I must agree with Thunderbird12, this is going to be a major, major disaster, barring an entirely unexpected and extremely unlikely weakening. I still believe that the wind estimates may be a bit low, perhaps, but that Dean will likely intensify at least a little more prior to landfall. I keep thinking back to some of the models that forecasted what is happening, intensity-wise at least - those earlier models forecasted a Cat 5 hurricane in the NW Caribbean - they were off on the eventual location back then, but they were not far off intensity-wise, it appears (some forecasted 190, and it's probably going to be 165-175, which is not that far off).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Pretty poor job of weather forecasting by the government of Belize.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/
"Tuesday: Wind: S-SE 40-50kt in the north, decreasing."
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Jorge Nakazawa
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Mexico City, Mexico
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I agree, in the IR loop the eye seems to become more simetrical and well defined with each image. Also, the latest images from cancun radar is starting to show part of what I believe to be the eyewall.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
(image edited to link due to size. Site appears to be offline/ overloaded. ~danielw)
Hugh, I've posted the link as an image. Hope you can see it.
Jorge G. Nakazawa
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 21 2007 04:02 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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At least they advise small crafts to remain in port.
Seriously, though... I suspect the residents know the weather report without having to rely on that website. If they don't, God help them.
Edit: Yes, I was also able to get a Cancun radar site up, different than the ones posted, which shows that same image I think.
It's significant that the 11pm discussion specifically mentions that they were unable to obtain the data from the aircraft in real time - again. So the 160mph winds at the 11pm advisory are considered a conservative estimate based upon data that was available. In another words - the monster is probably even stronger than reported. Given this, I would not be surprised if winds were upped at 2am, assuming Dean remains offshore at the time (don't know when it's actually going to cross the coast).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Aug 21 2007 03:42 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Dean has MANY similarities to Janet from 1955!
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at195510.asp
interesting read on Hurricane Janet. same part of the world.
http://corozal.com/history/janet/index
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Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I notice Dean is pretty well covered here...so I really don't have much to add outside of the fact that my points of late last night/ very early thismorning did not pan out....To the relief of the US and with great regret to our Mexican neighbors, it's a bad situation abd I wish them well. Otherwise, I learned some tropical weather lessons (Somethe hard way) via Hurricane Dean, but in the end, what make this site great is that we all share ideas and we all DO learn from one another.
Not as much talk about 92L tonight for very obvious reasons. From my end, it is a little tough to forecast anything...including development with out a bit more organization. I give it a 30-40% shot now...which is down from this morning, where I was starting to feel that something might be a bit better organized by now. That said, I am only basing that on the current organization, and the model support, which is basically showing a wave passage over Florida on the and UKMet from this...and the seems to have backed off of this somewhat.
Outside of this, I'll share what I do see.
On the Vapor loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html ), it does look like 92L will remain in a reatively moist environment...As moisture is spreading westward along with 92L, which is north of the ULL. Otherwise, 92Lmay still be too close to the ULL that is over the Puerto Rico...and it may stay too close for too long...Not sure yet.
On the shortwave loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html ) , any circulation at the mid levels and/or possible vorticity at the lower levels may be further to the west than Iinitially thought...I'd pegthat area to be around 25N, 65W.
Only time will tell if this will become Felix as it approaches from the east.
Edited by dem05 (Tue Aug 21 2007 03:42 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Just checking in and I must agree. Dean appears to be intensifying even more.
Classic extreme Hurricane on all of the satellite shots.
This storm even has 'hot towers' of cloud tops higher than the Eye over the Northern Yucatan Peninsula at 0245Z. The green areas are higher than the Eye!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/2007233_0245ft.jpg
Lightning in the western and northern feeder bands. Some of the heaviest lightning I've seen since -2005.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/2007233_0245rgb.jpg
Here's a really good link to local storm reports frfom the Caribbean Area.
http://www.stormcarib.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Will there be another recon into Dean before landfall in the morning? has seemed very reluctant to up the winds on this monster without recon verification, and they're encountered communication problems with the recon flights on top of that (gee, you think flying an airplane into a 160+ mph hurricane is going to cause disruption in communications?)
TWC now indicating winds could be 165, and they're trying to unwind (that's the term they used) the data after the communication problems. Given the conditions... it's hard to comprehend, really, what the area is going to look like on Wednesday.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is inbound at this time.. I'll have to check the reporting time.
Comms so far appear to be normal.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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HDOB messages indicate that they are about half way to the storm, or about 520 miles away from the eye right now.
(I'm just dropping HDOB coords into Google Earth to see where they are)
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Jorge Nakazawa
Registered User
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Loc: Mexico City, Mexico
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According to the 1100 PM discussion at , another recon flight is planned before landfall.
So far, Mexican TV has been showing reports from several cities in the expected lanfall area, mainly showing the preparations at the shelthers and at the emergency services and giving instructions to the people about where to go. I think that we will have to wait until early morning for the TV to show images and info on the effects of Dean in Yucatan.
Jorge G. Nakazawa
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Eye looks perfectly circular and clear on the latest IR and the cloud tops continue to cool. Funktop color scheme now has green showing up in the eyewall.
I think recon will find a strengthened Dean.
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