MikeC
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Update - Thursday- 05/29, 9:45AM
Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 1-E has been named as Tropical Storm Alma.
Update - Thursday- 05/29, 7:45AM
The first Tropical Depression of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has formed, it is forecast to become a tropical storm (Alma) before making landfall in western Nicaragua. Flhurricane is primarily an Atlantic Basin Site, please the National Hurricane Center for more information on Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 1-E.
Update - Friday - 05/23, Noon (EDST)
As the 'official' start of the season approaches, the basin remains on the quiet side. Easterly waves have started their development over tropical Africa and fall apart as they exit into the still cool waters of the eastern tropical Atlantic. The remains at low latitude (about 3N to 5N) and a strong shear zone exists in the central subtropical and tropical northern Atlantic between two upper level ridges.
The model continues to suggest long term development in the far western Caribbean Sea east of Belize and north of Honduras - but nothing really there at the moment. Its just an interesting area at his time of year to keep a casual eye on. See the excellent post below by dem05 for more on this.
ED
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Now that the East Pacific Hurricane Season is underway, we gear up for the Atlantic June 1st. With that the NOAA has released today their 2008 Atlantic Basin tropical climate assessment.
Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season and explanation can be found here.
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May 15th, today, is the first day of the East Pacific Hurricane Season. It predates the Atlantic one by 15 days. The Atlantic Hurricane season will begin on June 1st.
There is nothing worth note in the Eastern Pacific right now, however. This site rarely talks about East Pacfiic systems (or other basins) but instead focuses on the Atlantic systems.
That said it wouldn't be possible to mention Tropical Cyclone Nargis that made landfall in Myanmar on May 4th/5th, a borderline category 3/4 storm when it hit, it killed 10s of thousands, mostly due to lack of warning. (In the local newspaper there there was a minor mention of it two days before, with "50 MPH" winds and a lot of rain as the only thing mentioned) A catastrophic political communications failure greatly contributed to the deaths there.
A discussion on the system can be found here.
Back home, last years retired names round up is: Dean, a Category 5 that made landfall in the Yucatan. Felix, yet another category 5 that made landfall in northern Honduras (First time recorded that two category 5 systems made landfall as category 5's in one year), and Noel, which ran up the east coast and up to Nova Scotia. It made category 1 hurricane strength in the Northwestern Bahamas. It's impact on deaths in Haiti (around 150) and other parts of the Caribbean contributed (Map of Dean, Felix and Noel)
We'll be ready for the coming season with more news updates and commentary as we watch the Atlantic Basin. I expect another somewhat active year.
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dem05
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Greetings Everyone,
As we close in on a brand new Hurricane Season, I wanted to say hello and that I hope everyone enjoys participating in the forum that these moderators have established for us. Hopefully, this will be a season where each of us experience no problems from storms. However, I also hope everyone is prepared just in case.
If you have been bouncing around on many of the weather resources the internet has provided us...you may be noticing some active discussion about the model in the 5+ day timeframe regarding some pre-season tropical development. While it is true that the model consistently wants to pop something up in 5+ days in the SW Caribbean, this mentioned weather may or may not evolve and it's not a bad time to keep some other thoughts in check as the season approcahes. 1.) Models provide guidance. 2.) For established tropical weather, anything within 1-5 days has model guidance error and any guidance beyond 5 days is "crystal ball" meteorology with large element of risk and error. 3.) For un-established tropical weather, and/or "phantom systems" (i.e. systems that have not appeared or show no trigger for appearing), the faith in model development should be very low.
As for right now, the area is relatively favorable as small ridge perks along overhead. Yet nothing is present for development. Mean time, westerlies from the Pacific and Easterlies through the Caribbean could pop something up anywhere along the mean region of convergence with time...it just depends on where that convergence is. Not predictable, so who knows, we may be talking about one of three things. 1.) a potential Pacific system 2.) a possible Carrib system 3.) Niether Pacific nor Caribbean storm, yet tropical flooding rains in Cental America if these conditions persist. Until something does pop up...it's just impossible to know where or if this happens right now.
Good luck this season,
Tom
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scottsvb
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Well said.. I feel alot have been watching the models over the past few days on this, but really dont feel like posting yet cause its more than 4-5days out from becoming anything if anything. We may have a idea by Sunday even though models are hinting at a Tuesday-Weds timeframe (if any). Then if we do its still too far out to know where it will go. We have really 2-3 days before speculating on development for 1.
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allan
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That is a great post.. all in all, all this model stuff is just telling us that Hurricane Season is getting closer, I will watch that area for "possible" development, it's not too much out of the woods. I see a very bad season this year, so everyone should be prepared. Doesn't matter how much storms we get, as Adrian (Hurricane29)says "It only takes ONE to make it a devestating season
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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craigm
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Hello again everyone, Just like to chime in here with some general observations. Pattern has changed noticeably here, as my fellow Florida posters will agree. Heat and humidity are in full swing and after weeks of nothing but trace amounts of rainfall. Instability has returned with some serious afternoon thunderstorms. Could be a sign of our high pressure setting up camp further east for the summer. Analog years indicate dry mays produce more active years.
'Plotting 75 years worth of May rainfall data, Lushine found the probability of a hurricane striking South Florida almost tripled after a very dry May. Conversely, the chances of a hurricane striking South Florida after a wet May were three times less.'
I'm sure this article from 2005 has been linked in the past but it is interesting -
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2005/04/28/54367.htm?print=1
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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typhoon_tip
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As Ed pointed out, there have been some recent grumblings in the , and global numerical forecast models. HPC has picked up on this and felt it warranted a mention in their middle-extended range forecast discussion:
TROPICS
GFS SERIES HAVE BEEN INDICATING WRN CARRIBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
FOR OVER A WEEK AT LONGER RANGES INDICATING INCREASING FAVORABLE
CONDS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST OVERNIGHT RUNS AND TODAYS
12Z RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE LOCATIONAL CLUSTERING CONT THIS TREND. 00Z
ALSO DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA BUT NOT TO THE DEVELOPED
EXTENT OF THE . ALSO LIKES THIS GENERAL REGION BUT PLACES
ITS EMPHASIS ON THE PAC SIDE. AFTN FINAL PROGS WILL DEPICT A
ENS MEAN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST DAYS 5-7
THU-SAT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
I have found that the experimental Roundy cyclone probabilities product found here can be quite useful in determining at least favorable regions for development at extended leads. Currently, the product indicates that unfortunately for Berma, that region of the west and northwest Indian coast is dramatically coming into a favorable regime. The product also indicates that regions of the eastern Pacific are in a burgeoning region of potential development, too. Although this is not extended into the Caribbean, it is however close enough to the region, that combined with these operational global model signals, raises an eyebrow or two - particularly considering that nearing and going into June is also climatologically favored in this area and up throughout the Gulf.
...So, this is something to at least keep an eye on in future model runs.
John
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat May 24 2008 06:47 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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Great post by tom and others above.... taking a look at the globals this morning.... its still holding onto trying to develop something in the western caribbean... this may be the start of a long season.... WE HAVE PLENTY of time to watch.... and see how the long range models work. I see a few models try to take an area from the epac... over central america into the caribbean.... think i see this once or twice before at the start of the seaon... (a couple of years ago?)
GFS 06
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun May 25 2008 03:56 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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Well i've taken a look at the globals tonight... looks like next weekend/into next week... there could be some type of tropical system to talk about... ranging from the western caribbean to the central GOM. From a weak TD to a strong TS.....Upper level patten forecast shows a favorable area from GOM to western carb.... (but this is really to far out to know...) high pressure out in the atlantic could be far enough to the east that with any passing trough over the lower 48, this area could get pulled northward. a few gulf coast WFO's now have a mention of this in there long range for next weekend. I not all that too excitied yet... SST's are not really all that impressive... loop current is just starting to warm.... but its something to monitor and watch, while all focus this week with be on central america/epac/western caribbean area... and see what happens and or forms.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
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I think alot is going to be determined on where exactly the low pressure forms. 100 miles east or west of a model run might make a difference in the longer term. If the system develops alittle more east where the 0z has it.. then it could be a florida or eastern gulf threat. If it hugs close to the Yucitan..it may feel the developing ridge next week over Tx-La and push it westwards. Wayyy to early to tell until we get something to forecast.
Edited by scottsvb (Mon May 26 2008 05:59 AM)
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weatherguy08
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The TPC is mentioning the low pressure system in the offshore water forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea now.
Gulf of Mexico Synopsis: "DISORGANIZED LOW PRES ORGANIZING NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NW FRI AND SAT."
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Storm Hunter
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Well models still show all kind of solutions to what could happen... some stay on the epac side, while a few keep bringing a tropical system into the southern GOM. Personally i'm starting to think its all goin to depend on how far the ridge builds back to the west from off the atlantic side come fri-sun.
**side note... see long range now tries to bring off a low from the cape and move it wnw into the atlantic***
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
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anything that comes off africa this time of year will fizzle out in the 72-75f dg water temps. Its nice to see the waves coming off with weak low pressures though.
In regards with the possible development in the carribean..I dont think we can put any stock yet in anything until a low does form...otherwise the models will jump around.
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C.A.
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Is this area near Jamaica? Or is it further north? Hubby and I are going there on June 14th for 9 days. Not too worried about it yet, just want to get a better idea of where exactly they are looking. Thx!
Colleen
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cchsweatherman
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Just a few minutes ago, the disturbed weather and associated surface low were classified as Invest 90E according to Wunderground.com. Still awaiting the NAVY and confirmation. This could be the beginning of what the models have been predicting for days now.
Edited by danielw (Wed May 28 2008 03:54 AM)
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rmbjoe1954
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Yes- but it is located in the eastern paciifc; early tracking has it veering away from land. And it does look nice on satelllite.
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Tue May 27 2008 08:35 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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Well... like i posted a couple days ago.... i think the tropical wave that was over south american coast line moving west toward panama... its goin to be our little push that the broad area of low pressure in the SW Carb. needs to get going... with upper level winds becoming more favorable... this will giver it a better chance... i do think that the surface ridge will erode some to the NE and give this showers and storms a chance to become a better low... before building back to the west.
Although i do think 90E has a real good chance of becoming a TD in the next 12-24 hrs... movement slow and northerly... this will play a role on our atlantic side showers and storms
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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dem05
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That transitional time of year, which happens every year around the begining of Hurricane Season is definately upon us. Lots of various weather patterns involving the late weather of spring and the early weather of summer are definately ongoing. In sum, that means that the overall weather picture is not very straightforward. I give kudos to the for consistently picking up on the development of a monsoon trough for days now (an area of disturbed weather and lower pressures across the SW Caribbean and Eastern Pacific) . It is not typical to see that long range consistancy, and certainly not typical to see a phantom like weather pattern to evolve on queue in the tropics. This may be a fluke, or the annual adjustments in the are paying off....Time will tell, but it is encourqaging to see that the picked up on the genesis of the monsoon trough (albiet the final outcome of that trough has been all over the map).
Overall, what we do see right now is a monsoon trough across the eastern Pacific and the Southwest Caribbean. With a broad gyre of converging winds surrounding this region. Embedded are no "closed" lows, but several areas of minimum low pressure such as 90E. This trough is not that untypical for this time of year. However, it usually is aligned from east to west from the E. Pac into South America. When this trough is lifted northward into the SW Caribbean, that area is not a bad spot to watch, but it is not a guaranteed area development either. Likewise, until the area becomes more consolidated, development cannot really be predicted with any accuracy in the E. Pac or the Caribb.
However, I like Storm 7's comments on wave activity traversing South America. I can see where he is coming from and he may be on to something here. Likewise, the Pacific activity along the trough seems to be riding in a more of a Northeasterly fashion toward Panama and maybe the SW Caribbean. In conclusion, these types of activity may lead to a "pilling up" of weather, which may lead to a focused area for development along the trough. Mother Nature will say who's boss, but the SW Caribbean probably has a slightly better shot of being an area for consolidation of this Monsoon trough based on the current. However, 100 or 200 miles of error means a big difference (No Development due to Central America or an E. Pac. development). Bottom line, something may still perk in the SW. Caribbean in the coming days, nothing may happen due to land interaction with central america, or at lower odds...something may pop up on the Pacific side. One possibility that I do dismiss under this weather pattern is the possibility of a storm on both sides of Central America. Real estate plus the dynamics should prohibit that.
On the lighter side...I believe most posters here will agree...My only "wishcast" for the summer...Please let it rain in Florida! :-)
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danielw
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Latest Update... 30 minutes ago. It doesn't look good, to me, at this point in time.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7WW HAS BEEN MOVING W AN AN ESTIMATED 12
KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE INTO THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA...THE OVERALL
PATTERN SEEMS TO SUGGEST SLIGHT ORGANIZATION CENTERED ON ROUGHLY
09N89W. THIS IS WHERE OUR MARINE PRODUCTS HAVE SUGGESTED A
SURFACE LOW...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WOULD DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PERHAPS DRIFT
NE LATER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED BUT THEREAFTER SEVERAL CHANGES ARE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
OR CUT OFF FROM AN UPPER TROUGH...AND DRIFT S FRI WHILE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REPLACING THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY DISSECTING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD ALLOW A
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER GULF OF
HONDURAS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE NW
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE
MAY ADD THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO GET ALL OF THIS
SPINNING. NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT S OF THE E PAC LOW PRESSURE IS
ALREADY SUPPORTING A SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT WIND AND SEAS TO ABOUT
11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW
THROUGH 48 HOURS.
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cieldumort
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90E is looking better and better overnight tonight. Continued consolidation of convection is coalescing around a markedly improved coc, which is now clearly located IVO 9N 88W, drifting ever so gently E or ENE the past day or so.
If this feature was not still so wrapped up in the , one might be tempted to say that it would earn TD sometime this morning. Still might. But, I tend to think that it needs to snap free of the parent trof and spin up a little bit more, first, and this may take a good deal longer than another 6-12 hours.
As of this entry (2AM CDT) has yet to hoist a . I usually notice that most invests of this kind are given to 's at least a half a day before they earn the right to be numbered depressions. And this is a fairly strait forward, garden variety monsoon trof to tropical cyclogenesis scenario.
What might be interesting to watch is if 90E develops and washes out over central America before having much of a chance to interfere with the prospects of a sister system attempting to get going over out in the Caribbean or BOC. Certainly a few models have even hinted that 90E devolves once over Central America back into a lower pressure center within the much larger, broad area of low pressure, and then reemerges once in the Caribbean or even southwest BOC to attempt to birth an Atlantic tropical cyclone anew.
The mere prospect of a classic tropical cyclone forming just either side of central America before even the official start to the 08 season strikes me as noteworthy.
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rmbjoe1954
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Nice cyclonic view from the sat thus far- SW carribean looking pretty good for a potential developing system.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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