doug
Weather Analyst
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I"ve been more bullish than some on 94L all along, but even today it hasn't gotten it quite together..the long Visible loop confirms the LLC remains separated from most of the convection which is now NE of it. I have a feeling the ULL to the NNW of it is causing shear over the LLC. I'm nervous about it though because of its location and if it were to "ramp up" it would pose a threat into the GOM...if it remains weak it will chug merrily into Central America.
Right now this doesn't seem to be any further along than it was two days ago when I last took a long look.
I will reduce my probability to those posted by the host about 40% (down from 50). Has the recon data been posted?
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doug
Edited by doug (Fri Jul 18 2008 07:21 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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see Clark's intensity forecasts at the top...looks like TS strength at max. Too much interaction with land probably to get too intense.
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doug
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Mar32366
Unregistered
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Latest satelite pictures do show thunderstorms building to the ne of 94L and the last 2 frames it looks like they are building to the north as well. It looks like the circulation is pulling them westward towards the center. I still don't see any to the south and west side so it maybe very close to becomming a depression but not quite yet.
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zacros
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The pressures are falling at Station SKMG1 - off the coast of Georgia. Based on the direction of the wind, this station is on the south side of the low. The pressure is around 1012 mb.
Station SKMG1
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weatherguy08
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According to a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement just issued by the , the Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed center in 94L, but looking at the latest visible imagery on the website, a center may be trying to form around 14.5 N, 72.5 W. It also appears that convection is trying to wrap around this center. I don't know if this really is a center or a bubbling of convection giving this illusion, but to me it looks like a center is trying to form. Thoughts?
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CANELURKER
Registered User
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Hi, first time, long time lurker here (Hence the name). BTW, best hurricane site on the web!
Question, 94L (according to latest recon) does not show a closed circulation, is that necessary before it can "Officially" be named a TD? Otherwise the convection is much more persistent today than it ever has been and like the previous reply the latest IR loop (last couple of frames) shows T-storms starting to wrap around an apparent center, I have seem many TDs much less impressive than this but the does not want to go there yet. Also, why is this having such a hard time developing, SST's - Shear are not inhibiting it from what I can see?
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weatherguy08
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If 94L continues how it is now, I would not be the least bit suprised to see the classify it as early as...well...any time now!  This system is looking very healthy. The only thing in its way looks to be an upper-level low over eastern Cuba which could create some wind shear.
Edit:
Buoy 42058 in the eastern Caribbean Sea has been showing a significant pressure drop throughout the day (averaging about -0.01 in/hr during the last nine or so hours), increasing wave heights (over eight feet), a wind gust to 35 knots about six hours ago, and sustained winds of about 25 knots six hours ago.
Buoy 42058: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
Be sure to look at the historical plots.
Edited by weatherguy08 (Fri Jul 18 2008 10:33 PM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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For a tropical storm to be classified, the center of circulation has to be closed. There are tropical waves that can be just as strong as tropical storms but are not classified because they are lacking a center of circulation. If the classified anything that had winds meeting the requirements of classification, we'd have every strong summer storm deemed a "tropical storm."
Its having a hard time developing because it is moving so quickly. When a storm moves quickly (there are rare exceptions) it is very hard for the system to consolidate itself. For example think of boiling water. When the gas is released as the bonds in the water molecules break, the atoms expand and move around very quickly. But as soon as the temperature providing that energy is gone, the atoms slow down and consolidate back into the liquid form of water.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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A few things are becoming clearer to me this evening:
1. There appears to be an upper level low positioned between 94L and 96L. Can anyone confirm this? I'm seeing a spin in over the southern Bahamas, almost exactly between the two tropical systems
2. This ULL (if I'm correct) is pulling 94L poleward, which is causing it to already move more northward than models are projecting, it appears to me.
3. The hurricane hunters are using some advanced technology to retard the circulation of 94L during the recon flights, so that they don't find a closed circulation when one is so apparent before and after the flights. Either that, or 94L is just playing games with us. I tend to favor the advanced technology concept, because it sounds cool 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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cieldumort
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From the 8PM .
This should just about do it.
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
Quote:
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM
THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
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weatherguy08
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In my very humble opinion, I find it interesting that the is classifying 96L. 94L seems to have a more well-defined center (near 14.5, -73.5), better banding and wrapping of convection, and deeper convection than 96L. Perhaps it is due to the proximity to land that the wanted to go ahead and hoist the "red flag".
Take a look at these two water vapor images and see what I am talking about:
94L: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
96L: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html
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metwannabe
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I tend to agree that it is interesting that is classifying 96L and not 94L yet. But you have to admit there have been numerous times over the last several days that 94L would show good banding, outflow, deep convection and most everyone thought, ok this it, it finally is getting classified, but held off on doing so. Then shortly after, it became very disorganized and no longer had that "look". Not saying I think that will happen this time, but I guess it does not have the "urgency" that 96L has.
One more note, last sat images shows some deep convection blowing up directly over what is probably the center of 96L. It has potential, Carolina's need to monitor it.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
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SFWMD has labeled 96L as Storm 03. This would probably indicate an upgrade to a TD at the 11 PM advisory.
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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I'm thinking has jumped this one. is still showing 96L. Radar does show some decent circulation though, so it might be upgraded at 11pm.
Radar link: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Speaking of ... the hotlink the forum creates for is now bad too.
Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Jul 19 2008 03:43 AM)
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DMFischer
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I was watching the water vapor for 94L and I kept thinking I was seeing the formation of an eye under the convection that was blowing up. You guys have taught me a lot over the years. Does anyone else see what I am seeing? and the outflow is not good, right?
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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T-Numbers for "TD Three" are presently 1.5/1.5 (per SSD). They were 2.5/2.5 for 94L a couple of days ago. Granted, they've dropped back to 1.0/1.0 for 94L now... but if the upgrades the system off the Carolina coastline to a TD with those T-Numbers, they're setting a curious precident. 94L has been threatening the S. American coastline, and is now threatening Cuba, so a threat to land excuse doesn't fly, in my opinion.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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cieldumort
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T numbers, unfortunately, do not serve as clear-cut a dividing line as we humans would like them to. And, they are not always close to accurate. Just because a given system is estimated to be a certain T number that is typically associated with a numbered depression or even a named storm, just does not mean it is so. A case in point could be 94L, where it is possible that while SAB (SSD) assigned it 2.0 to 2.5, it did not in fact have a closed low at the surface (or much of one). Certainly it unraveled on approach to the Antilles.
OTOH, 96L does have a closed surface circulation with deep convection blowing up on top of it that we can be sure of. A case could be made that its winds are a little light compared to your average upgrade to TD, but this doesn't always preclude an upgrade to TD in and of itself.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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T-numbers are not the be-all, end-all here. They are most useful in the deep tropics where the observational network is sparse, at best, and where satellite is the only tool from which a forecaster has to draw. In the case of soon-to-be TD3, we have a relatively dense surface observational network and a few radars to observe the system, and they are telling us that we do indeed have a tropical depression, despite the low t-numbers. Direct observations ALWAYS trump t-numbers; not classifying TD3 due to poor t-number would be like a chaser following a tornado on the ground but the NWS not issuing a warning cause they can't see the circulation on radar.
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Jason Kelley
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Storm Hunter
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well looks like the "tropical characteristics" are being achieved by 96L... banding on the east and south side of the low is looking good.
this is what i found:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032008) 20080719 0000 UTC
Click to see full text
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 30.8N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
They did upgrade at 11pm...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 19 2008 02:57 AM)
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danielw
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I had nearly written off 94L until I took a look at the wv loop. What appeared to be a system suffering from wind shear is actually a system holding it's own and presently consolidating it's convection to two areas.
Larger area is due in part to the mountains and hills on both Cuba and Hispaniola.
Look near the 14 N/ 74 W longitude area and there are presently two convective clusters. WV Loop indicates they are on opposite sides of the Center of Circulation-CoC
TD3 has consolidated nicely... unless you ae in a boat in the NE Quad. It's going to get a bit rough in that area.
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