danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The "78 knots(~ 89.7 mph)" is highly suspect to me. The wind speeds prior to and after that particular reading are more consistant with the rest of the flight leg.
The "985.0 mb(~ 29.09 inHg)" pressure reading looks consistant with the other flight level readings.
A 985mb pressure reading " could, emphasis on could" give a pressure-wind relationship maximum possible wind speed of 90mph. If Dolly were well formed and a lot more efficent in the tropical meterology department.
At this time Dolly is attempting to consolidate again.
For those of you viewing the HDOB messages. AF 308 is preparing to take off from Keesler. They transmitted a test SMFR wind speed of 87 knots. This is a test and not an actual wind speed.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN
MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN
FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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There is no "EYE" in dolly right now....we dont need to over hypecast the nowcasting of this system. Its just a center of circulation and not a "EYE". There was no pressure also of 985mb... latest has it at 999mb or a 50-60mph storm.. Still conditions are perfect for further strengthning tonight into tomorrow. I do feel though even though Dolly will slow some.. she will make landfall earlier than expected tomorrow night as a Cat 1 or maybe weak 2 in extreme NE MX but Brownsville will deal with near hurricane force winds as forecasted by the .
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cieldumort
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Yeah, this 985 can be tossed out. It's sitting in between some other pressure extraps that were in the high 990s. The wind measurement is supposedly a mere 10-second average at flight level, so I'm not sure what to make of that, other than at least it is a little believable.. perhaps they flew through a tight little meso, etc. etc., etc.
I do take some issue with the "NO EYE" meme going around, however. Clearly, there is an attempt to sync up the MLC and LLC, and should/once this complete, based on some of the more recent microwave passes, it shouldn't take long at all for an eyewall to complete forming. You can see for yourself in the Composite, 37V, 85H ranges in particular that thunderstorm banding is tightening up quite well.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
There is no "EYE" in dolly right now....we dont need to over hypecast the nowcasting of this system. Its just a center of circulation and not a "EYE". There was no pressure also of 985mb... latest has it at 999mb or a 50-60mph storm.. Still conditions are perfect for further strengthning tonight into tomorrow. I do feel though even though Dolly will slow some.. she will make landfall earlier than expected tomorrow night as a Cat 1 or maybe weak 2 in extreme NE MX but Brownsville will deal with near hurricane force winds as forecasted by the .
There is no eye just yet. The is finally admitting that east shear has been impacting the system, after stating all day that anticyclonic upper levels covered the entire western Gulf area.
That said, there is an apparent tendency to wrap convection squarely around a central core. The low level center, however, is stated to be south of the mid level vortex. This is consistent with an earlier post I made regarding an apparent tilted system. The is the culprit. Even at this hour, that feature still lingers in the southern BOC. From the Yuk Pen areas and proceeding to the "core" there is still the presence of shear, though it is decreasing.
The most recent frames suggest a somewhat more NW motion with the IR...thus mid-level. It seems more likely to me that rapid intensification is still iffy. The storm is crossing some impressive oceanic thermal content, and a battle between TC thermodynamics and negative mechanics is underway. Tough call. Could have a big deepening system if the shear were to relax entirely, but the existence of shear is off-setting to some degree.
I'm more concerned about a slow down, where by the system develops strongly ...over guidance, within reach of shores. Monitoring of this system from the middle TX Bend down into Mexico, obviously highly warranted.
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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AF Recon is going through Dolly right now...
and i agree with others... that the over SBOC could have caused the disruption to Dolly... which is a good thing... keeping it weaker.. but as other's have noted.. i think the surface and mid level are about to hook up and Dolly is going to make a run at becoming a hurricane in the next 12hrs.. its looking better with time now... and i do think Dolly is starting to slow in forward speed... I REALLY THINK the G-IV data from this afternoon was what finally made /HRD say that the upper levels weren't really perfect... but were close... 
FOR THOSE INTERESTED... here's what i was thinking.. and a good drawing by Dr. Jeff Masters proves it..
Dry air from the Yucatan, thanks to the
Quote:
For those of you viewing the HDOB messages. AF 308 is preparing to take off from Keesler. They transmitted a test SMFR wind speed of 87 knots. This is a test and not an actual wind speed.
I think from what i heard... that when they turn on the SMFRt on in the back... and its not meant to be used over land... its actually getting the airspeed to the aircraft... the waves are hitting land and caculating aircraft speed?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jul 22 2008 06:00 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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wow... seems like Dolly is still trying to get its act together. I think the surface center is to the north of 23.17N
Flight LEVEL center appears to still be off from surface center by just a little bit.
Time:
05:27:30Z
Coordinates:
23.17N 93.27W
Acft. Static Air Press:
843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,485 meters (~ 4,872 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
999.9 mb (~ 29.53 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 91° at 0 knots (From the E at ~ 0.0 mph)
Air Temp:
18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Dew Pt:
14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
2 knots (~ 2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
0 knots (~ 0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jul 22 2008 05:39 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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they dropped in the center.. data just came in...
pressure at 999mb? Did notice its 80.6 degrees at the surface.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dolly (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 06
Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 23.2N 93.3W CENTER?
Location: 324 miles (521 km) to the SE (126°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 152 gpm - 2 gpm (499 geo. feet - 7 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 6 knots (7 mph)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jul 22 2008 05:48 AM)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Middle of the night and it appears that finally the ULL to Dolly's southwest is filling in a little bit more and continuing west at around the same pace or even a touch faster, while Dolly's forward motion is slowing down, and perhaps even starting to trend WNW once again.
This development has greatly lessened the shear and infiltration of dry air within Dolly's southern half. With outflow starting to improve now in this area, along with the increased overall moisture content, convection is currently taking off - and taking off from what looks like right over the LLC - making for an almost regular -type scene.
The most recent vort fix, that was made just about the time conditions started turning more favorable, found:
Estimated Max Surface Winds 48.6KT (55.9mph 90.0km/h) *
Position of the center: 23° 14' N 093° 28' W (23.2°N 93.5°W)
Minimum pressure: 997mb (29.44in)
It appears that Dolly has entered a sweet spot, for now. That SSTs are not as warm ahead becomes almost irrelevant, given the much-improved atmospheric environment. As a deepening cyclone, she may begin to respond to a slight developing weakness in the mid-level high to her north, and complete that trip to the Texas coastline. Otherwise, a continued westerly track will place landfall somewhere between Tampico, Mx and Brownsville, but which would still keep a sizable portion of the RFQ along the south Texas shoreline.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Recon is in the storm again. Several HDOB messages estimate surface pressure down to 990mb. No vortex recon yet, but from winds, looks like they went through the flightlevel center. Not sure they got the surface center, though.
Edit: Dropsonde right next to those HDOB readings got 993 surface pressure with a surface temperature of 79.9F.
Storm structure: We also had a microwave overpass about 4 hours ago that shows fairly strong internal structure, but at that time, still no eye development.
Edit 2: Per vortex recon, Dolly has 993mb pressure and a poorly defined elliptical eye. No temperature gradient across the eyewall (54F at altitude inside and outside). Size is 15nm x 7nm.
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Jul 22 2008 12:22 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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TUTT is still impairing outflow on the storm's south and west side; though the channel on the other side looks remarkably well. Satellite imagery at this time shows a , though small developing; NOAA plane currently in the storm indicates a ragged eye and I agree, once the is out of the way, the stage is set for rapid intensification given SSTs, warm eddy approaching, and upper air all indicate "green" for Dolly to wind up before landfall. As in all intensity forecasting; how much with whatever time it has left over water.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'll be recording a few webcams/radars for Dolly
Let me know if you would like to see something else.
Currently (not all will be "turned on" until later):
Dolly Brownsville Level 3 Radar (Now Active)
Long Range Radar (Now Active)
South Padre Island Surf Cam -- High Res (Not Active Yet)
South Padre Island Bay Cam (Now Active)
I'll be turning these on and off during the day, and leaving them on when Dolly approaches.
The main page article has a list of radars, media, and cams toward the bottom.
And 97L is now being tracked (That wave far off Africa)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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"Hurricane Dolly" looks to be a lock, but several things are arguing against Dolly being able to enter a period of very rapid intensification.. especially as that would pertain to RI to beyond Cat 2.. without a lot of luck.
After the overnight easing from the gnawing jaws of the (ULL) to Dolly's southwest, it appears that some shearing has begun again. This is perhaps the number one reason why Dolly has been unable to establish much of an eye, despite repeated attempts.
Unless the pulls away at a more rapid pace than this, which at this time looks possible, but less and less so, it's going to be all up to the forward speed of Dolly as to whether or not this situation continues to inhibit her development going forward.
Something of a blocking pattern is in place from the east pac running up through old Mexico and onward into Texas, which is in status quo with a mid-upper level trof over west Texas, and a mid-level ridge in the east. Right now, unless some part of this train wreck gives way, Dolly may soon also start taking on more shear from her west. (A little bit of westerly shear has been an on again, off again presence for the last 24 hours or so, but has usually been masked by the outflow wrapping around from there).
SSTs are not going to ramp up in any meaningful way along her expected course. In fact, with Dolly now at about 24N 94W, she'll be traveling over a negative anomaly, or cool eddy. From there, TCHP still does not increase much, at all. While the depth of the 26C water is plenty deep for a passing Cat 3 hurricane traveling fast, Dolly is still expected to slow down, and the upwelling that would likely occur from a slow-moving Cat 1-2 hurricane over 26C water of these depths tends to preclude rapid development much beyond Cat 2 (Not applicable if Dolly does not slow down so much).
Finally, there's simply only so much water left. That coastline is coming up mighty fast, and then it's curtains.
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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There is that fine line between a ULL that shears and one that ventilates, and seeing how some outflow is getting started on the south/southwest side, we might be approaching that line. The ULL seems to still be moving west and with Dolly moving NW as per 11am discussion this might become a help not a hindrance
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Looking at radar out of Brownsville, and it shows the 1st real rain band moving onshore along the upper Mexico coast, and just about to move onshore near Brownsville. While radar shows the eyewall, visible imagery doesnt really show much in the way of an eye just yet. In fact, radar imagery shows the eyewall convection to be not that strong. Dolly has chance to strengthen more, and will no doubt become a hurricane, but given the presentation and the time remaining over water, looks like she isnt gonna get 'that' strong! Also, with the continued northwest motion evident on the radar, she looks likely to make landfall near the TX / MX border, or just to the south.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
Edited by Rich B (Tue Jul 22 2008 05:30 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Webcam recordings (now w/ radar):
South Padre Island (Bay Side)
South Padre Island (Gulf Side)
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The eye is starting to clear on the last frame of visible SAT image. I t jives with the radar fixes
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Is that an eye we are seeing? She looks a bit stronger. Hoping we will get a little rain. We are hoping it won't be too bad for our neighbors
in South Texas.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Center of Circulation....... A "EYE" is a well identified center of circulation on all 3 spectrums... Radar, Visible, and Infrared satellite appearence... Dolly has just radar signature of 1.. the sats show some drier air mixed in but the system but, is getting more and more organized into a Hurricane right now.... A actual eye may form later tonight or tomorrow when the system gets stronger.
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Clark
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No, that's an eye there alright -- recon sure confirms it in their vortex reports and microwave satellite imagery show it developing earlier today as well:
Dolly is moving along a gradient of oceanic heat content right now, avoiding a cool eddy to its south and a warm eddy to its north:
It is along these gradients where storms seem to try to intensify at a fairly rapid clip, likely due to the enhanced flux potential the gradients provide. With waters sufficiently warm to provide ample oceanic heat to the storm, the only thing that should constrain Dolly's intensification should be landfall sometime tomorrow very near Brownsville. I'd place my bets in the high-end category 2 range with a little bit of wiggle room in either direction.
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