engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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StrmTrckrMiami,
My suggestion is to be calm and get to work now.
Being ahead of the rush is a victory in itself.
Even if it misses you and you have minimal issues, you're prepared for the next one.
Plan as if you're going to be native camping for a few days, because if power goes out, you will be.
As stated, get a hurricane planner and follow the checklist.
But go now, do not wait. Every hour that passes, the more the rush goes and the more likely stores will run out.
I expect the 5pm advisory will be the starting gun
Good luck and remain calm
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well will have good data tonight in the models... HOPEFULLY... G-IV is east of South Florida... flying at 40kft
AF recon from Biloxi is about to the Cayman Islands... and AF Recon from St. Croix, just made another pass through FAY center and pressure down to 1006mb. Seems like i seeing a slight increase too in surface winds data, say around 50mph
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 16 2008 08:18 PM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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In regards to "The wierd weather in Lee County"
My fiancee's dad has lived here for 70 years, (he is 75) and he said that according to what it usually is like, it has been very strange and wierd..just wanted to add that
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Seeing as we've got a few people that have never been in a tropical system I'll offer some advice in the Ask/Tell section:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....;gonew=1#UNREAD
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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FIREREALTY
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Loc: BOCA RATON, FL
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Fla Gov has issued State of Emergency,,3 County EOC's over here will go to partial staffing tomorrow at 5,,full staffing at 7am mon....
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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What does this mean?
(Crap..I may be activated for this storm..Gah I don't want to be out in the middle of it, putting up sand bags)
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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engicedave
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What does this mean?
(Crap..I may be activated for this storm..Gah I don't want to be out in the middle of it, putting up sand bags)
Calm down.
This does not affect you, it has to do with state emergency operations and planning.
You have a good amount of time before any evac will be issued if necessary
Calm down
(unless you mean your unit...but still, calm down)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Do you think they'll issue Evac for a Cat 1?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
What does this mean?
(Crap..I may be activated for this storm..Gah I don't want to be out in the middle of it, putting up sand bags)
I am not sure what this may mean for you in the service, but you can read the entire executive order at this site:
Governor Crist Executive order about TS Fay
It seems to be a bunch of legaliese to me, but you may be able to figure something out from it. Seems he is just releasing various government agencies to do their jobs without delay as the situation dictates......stay calm, but prepare just in case!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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engicedave
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Quote:
Do you think they'll issue Evac for a Cat 1?
Evac zones and route for your area
web.naplesnews.com/static/pdf/npdn/severeweather/HURR-evacuation.pdf
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Quote:
Quote:
What does this mean?
(Crap..I may be activated for this storm..Gah I don't want to be out in the middle of it, putting up sand bags)
I doubt they will evacuate for a Cat 1. What the Christ did allows state, county and local agencies to co-ordinate activities. I've been through a few storms in Florida, its standard procedure.
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jayb
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I'm very new to monitoring hurricanes, but I have been watching this site and others since Kartina. I've noticed the official forecast track for Fay hasn't been following the "average/center" of the models, which would make landfall in the panhandle. Can anyone explain way they are forecasting a more East track with landfall near Ft. Meyers than just looking at the models would indicate?
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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This really belongs over in the Ask/Tell forum... To better understand how they come up with the track, always read the discussion, not just the advisory. They often explain why they are deviating from model consensus. A lot of the time it is just because they know the models flip back and forth, so they apply averaging over time and they know some models do better than others in certain situations, and they compare previous model runs with what the storm actually does. Each model has its own personality. Some are better at some things than others. Many of them are fed (at least partially) from output of other models. The more detailed recon data input into the models, the more accurate they are. Models are also tweaked from time to time (some more often than others) or the data input into them is massaged differently. There are also times when there is something wrong with the data and the models don't get initialized properly, which results in inaccurate results, which in turn might get fed into other models.
Bill
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flanewscameraman
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Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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My best advice would be to not lock in on the model line directly. There is still much uncertainty on the eventual track and intensity of Fay. What I would advise is to get your supplies now. When a watch or warning is issued, Floridians will go crazy, and the gas stations and stores will be a mob scene. The reality with tropical systems is even if your not under the direct landfall location, the weather can get real nasty. I am a news cameraman and was sixty miles inland from Dolly when it came ashore in Texas, and we had sustained winds of at least 40 miles an hour, with gusts way above that amount. To sum it up, dont panic, but prepare. It adds peace of mind to you, and at the end of it, you will use what you buy now anyway
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon just passed through again... and 1005mb was found
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:02:00Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Since a few asked, here's a better description of the cone (thanks to ):
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Angelo, TX
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The state of emergency that was declared in Florida doesn't have anything to do with evacuations. As stated before, it is more about legal stuff. It basically sets up federal emergency assistance and finacial aid in the case that it is needed.
On another note, I was just talking to a few of my coworkers and it is amazing how lax of an attitude people have about these things.
My motto: It's better to be safe than sorry 
Edited by chase 22 (Sat Aug 16 2008 10:32 PM)
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I just saw Max Mayfield on TV out of Miami, he said what the line represents is that there is a 2/3 chance of the storm following that track. He also said pay more attention to the cone. He also said some models are going further west and others are going east.
It's true this probably won't be a big storm for most of us, but we should all be ready.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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watching the sat loops this afternoon... FAY appears to me now getting its convection back over the center. I think... IMHO i think the mid level center got displaced to the south of the low level center.. but convections is coming back strong this evening... Pressure still at 1005mb
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
It's true this probably won't be a big storm for most of us, but we should all be ready.
Small storms are excellent opportunities to get prepared and as a chance to evaluate your various hurricane plans. Get out all your 'gear' and check it over. Throw out flashlights where batteries have leaked, test your generator and chain saw, double check the hardware for putting up wood/shutters. This can be great preparation in case (God forbid) we should have a BIG one before this season is out....
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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