Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I remember , I put my shutters up and was ready. Everyone thought I was nuts. When the storm came we weren't the ones hiding in a closet.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I would expect with the new convection (if it persists) there will start to be pressure falls. I'm not, however, seeing a northward component to the center...still moving due west, maybe even a tad south of due west
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Despite what many have said on other boards regarding Fay's appearance she has been improving greatly all afternoon IMHO. Last visible images showed a rejuvenating system that looks to stay south of the Cuban coast for the next 24 hours. This is a bit disturbing, since the pressures have been falling steadily now and AF investigations are showing increased winds at the surface (approximately 57 knots in the SE Quad). Her appearance is great considering where she has been during the past 24 hours (Haiti) and she has a symetrical circulation that gives one the feeling that all she need do is stretch out in the waters south of Cuba and she'll undergoe intensification prior to turning north. Again I believe the maybe a bit conservative with the intensity forecast, but that is reasonable since there is a chance of land interaction. If she crosses central Cuba heading north, the land interaction will be short-lived and may be problematic for us in Florida. here's hoping she stalls over land in Cuba or just gets sheared to death. Cheers!
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Hi,
Looking at the track forecast for Fay I start wondering whether Fay could turn into a -like hurricane. It does not look like Fay could pack the same power in terms of intensity, but could she not end up have a similar type of track and spew as many tornadoes as did?
We live in New Smyrna Beach, but on the mainland and for us 's worst effect were the numerous tornadoes which spawned. In our subdivision many homes ended up loosing their roofs to these tornadoes.
How much of a threat do you think Fay represents to East Central Florida and Volusia county? What is the worst-case we should be ready for?
Thanks,
VS
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Satellite appearances can certainly be deceiving at times. The 57kt surface winds, if that is a legitimate surface wind reading, would seem to indicate rapid intensification, and 65mph intensity in the intermediate advisory... but was it just a short gust? If Fay crosses central (or even - horrors - western Cuba), I would not expect any weakening at all, assuming the storm is headed north at the time. Overall, I too think the intensity forecast is very conservative... but best not to panic Floridians prematurely.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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is it me or does the convection envenlope sem to be expanding north to the mid level low on the eastern tip of cuba now. And the convetion that was south of hati waining looking more ragged?
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc:
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Quote:
Hi,
Looking at the track forecast for Fay I start wondering whether Fay could turn into a -like hurricane. It does not look like Fay could pack the same power in terms of intensity, but could she not end up have a similar type of track and spew as many tornadoes as did?
We live in New Smyrna Beach, but on the mainland and for us 's worst effect were the numerous tornadoes which spawned. In our subdivision many homes ended up loosing their roofs to these tornadoes.
How much of a threat do you think Fay represents to East Central Florida and Volusia county? What is the worst-case we should be ready for?
Thanks,
VS
Anything is possible, including a -like (+/-) scenario
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
[
Anything is possible, including a -like (+/-) scenario
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best
You really think that Fay has the potential of making landfall as a Cat.4?!
From what I read in this forum a strong Cat.1 is the max. that we should be expecting, no?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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I don't say much but I listen to this site a lot. Here are some thoughts I'd like to share:
- Folks on this site are astute sources of insight but they are not God. No one knows exactly what a storm will do.
- The Hurricane center has a lot of smart people working there and they are very rarely wrong. If you listen to what they say in terms of preparedness you won't go wrong.
- Even if we know exactly where the storm will go the exact effects on any given location can vary. Tornadoes get spawned. Microbursts happen. Many folks have said, "prepare for the worst". Just do it.
When a storm happens, my advice to newbies is "shut up and listen". I'll follow my own advice. Thanks for listening.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I didn't mean to get anyone upset, I just am observing what I see, and we have a couple of days to see ultimately where Fay will go. Yes the 57 knot reading could very well have been a squall or t'storm, but she is looking like she is gaining her health. We should get prepared and have plans ready to enact should she head our way Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday night, depending where in the state you are.
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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I'll agree it would be highly unlikely, but this is why you prepare and stay informed.
At this point, this far out, consider any possibility until they narrow down the path and intensity
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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There are some BIG differences between Fay/Charlie...
Fay is a much larger (size not strength).
Charlie crossed Cuba as a cat3 weakened upon crossing then ramped up quickly because it was a very SMALL storm (size again not strength). I doubt Fay will be even a Cat1 crossing Cuba (all depends on time over water and organization). Larger storms take longer to ramp up and to organize. Fays got a long way to go
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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pcbjr
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Been out of the loop for a few hours (work) and have to head back shortly.
Sorry - but can someone give a quick update on track? Skimming quickly I get the impression it may be more west, but in haste may be reading wrong.
Is Tampa still a target (I live 80 miles NE).
Thanks!
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
There are some BIG differences between Fay/Charlie...
Fay is a much larger (size not strength).
Charlie crossed Cuba as a cat3 weakened upon crossing then ramped up quickly because it was a very SMALL storm (size again not strength). I doubt Fay will be even a Cat1 crossing Cuba (all depends on time over water and organization). Larger storms take longer to ramp up and to organize. Fays got a long way to go
True, but then did have a fast forward motion whereas it appears form the track prediction that Fay will be moving forward much more slowly. Could that not give her more time to suck up energy and rotate faster (maybe become more compact, smaller in size?)?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
True, but then did have a fast forward motion whereas it appears form the track prediction that Fay will be moving forward much more slowly. Could that not give her more time to suck up energy and rotate faster (maybe become more compact, smaller in size?)?
A lot depends upon shear at that point. The 5pm discussion indicates that shear may be higher in 72 hours where Fay is forecast to be, which would preclude strengthening.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Elsewhere
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Looks like satellite depicts improving structure. 1005 pressure would indicate at least a slow pressure drop; I will be quite wary should recon come in during the night with 2-4 mb falls, as I would interpret this as a possibility that a "jump" or initiated northward motion might soon ensue thereafter. Would appreciate if those here could contribute any incoming recon data that may be coming in.
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engicedave
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the 8pm intermediate said that motion had slowed, that's typically an indicator of directional change, correct?
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Quote:
I don't say much but I listen to this site a lot. Here are some thoughts I'd like to share:
- Folks on this site are astute sources of insight but they are not God. No one knows exactly what a storm will do.
- The Hurricane center has a lot of smart people working there and they are very rarely wrong. If you listen to what they say in terms of preparedness you won't go wrong.
<snip>
I would be cautious about putting too much faith in the 's prediction and watch the entire cone. I left my boarded up, stocked, prepared home for , and headed inland since I was on that direct hit line and we were ordered to evacuate. We evacuated to Arcadia and ended up enduring at full Cat. 4 strength in an unboarded, unprepared home. We stepped out to a world that cannot be described once that storm was over. It took a week before roads were cleared enough to allow us to return home. In the meantime we were without provisions. We returned home to find not a single palm frond disturbed and life going on as usual.
So, I'm understandably skeptical of the "experts".
If the says it's going to hit Tampa, it might just hit Ft. Myers instead. So wherever you plan to be, make plans early and prepare the location of where you plan to spend your time regardless of the predictions.
There IS a "cone" for a reason...and where you were located was well within that cone of error. The has done a fabulous job in the last few years and you should be grateful that you had somewhere to come home to..instead of complaining about the place you went to that got so hard hit...weather is a science, not an absolute. I surely hope we don't have to have a repeat conversation about Fay..just bear in mind, my friend, that you, as well as I, are well within that "cone".
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
Edited by Colleen A. (Sun Aug 17 2008 05:31 AM)
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
You really think that Fay has the potential of making landfall as a Cat.4?!
From what I read in this forum a strong Cat.1 is the max. that we should be expecting, no?
Potential? Absolutely.
Likely? Not likely.
Is a strong Cat 1 the MAX that we should be expecting? Certainly not. Cat 1 is what is currently forecast. Generally speaking, three days out the forecast can be off +/- two categories or so. In the last few years, we've seen the become much better at track predictions, but intensity predictions are much more difficult.
Fay still could very well fizzle and be little more than a tropical storm as she passes over Florida, or she could possibly strengthen to a fairly strong hurricane. In all likelihood, you will not be affected much by Fay. But as someone who lived at the 2004 storm nexus, I can say that it's much better to be prepared and not get much than to be unprepared and have to deal with the aftermath.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Sitting here under the gun by one global model (Nogaps, that basically brings the storm up my back yard, albiet from the east so on the "cleaner" side) and looking closely at the models and environment, plus the storm itself, here's my take....
We don't know (yet) where this thing is going with any degree of confidence. The guidance envelope on the global models is wide and in fact has gotten wider in the last 24 hours. This indicates that there is an issue with initialization and upper-air environment that has not yet found resolution. As the storm gets more organized this will probably tighten up significantly, and that's good.
The bad news is that a "strafing run" up the west coast of Florida is probably the worst case for a number of people, including especially Tampa, which has a bay that is open to "cramming" of surge from a storm that takes this path. It hasn't happened in a very long time but that doesn't mean it can't.
Best case is that we get a bit more of a poleward movement and Cuba inhibits the storm materially, and it doesn't have enough time to get its act together before impacting land. This makes everyone "happier" in terms of total impact, but it will still ruin some people's days. The worst case is that it skims Cuba and gets plenty of organization before crossing on the western half, where the terrain won't tear it up as much and the time over land will do little as it will be short. That's bad.
I'm not getting alarmed yet but I am getting ready and inventorying what I need in the event it looks to be headed on a -ish path. I think we'll have a much better idea tomorrow afternoon or evening, when there should be more data and a couple more model runs.
I'm also intrigued by the GOES-East WV runs and it confirms, more-or-less, what the sticking points are in the discussion as well as here. The bad news is that I don't see as much movement and "spit out" potential on the low out west, which would tend to auger for a more westward component to the movement. The IR shows that outflow is improving, so the real inhibitor here is land interaction, not environment.
The difficulty here is that small differences in the jet and that low, along with what happens in terms of shear, have a very large impact not only on exactly where the storm comes in but also on how strong it is. There is plenty of oceanic heat content to support a 'Cane, so that's not a factor - its the environment and particularly how much interaction with land (Cuba) we get that will tell the tale on this one.
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