Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Looking at the new Tracking map, it looks as though they have extended watches/warnings up to Tampa Bay. That'll get peoples attention. It also seems to have Fay just about off of any land masses in Cuba. But...the forecast plot has it going over the middle part of Cuba...so it could be disrupted again.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Colleen A. (Sun Aug 17 2008 03:00 PM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Well it looks as if they have appeared to issue a hurricane watch here in Fort Myers, which simply means to start and get the ball rolling. Yesterday, since we do not have a car, we bought two 24 packs of bottled water, flashlights with batteries and moved anything important away from the window (we do not have insurance, but will be getting some after Fay passes) We do not have a first aid kit, but after the storm passes, I will be going to buy one of those Emergency First Aid Kits for Hurricanes from CVS, FEMA or ARC websites. I got one of those hurricane guides as well as lots of canned and nonperishable foods. Thanks for the advice everyone.
See more information HERE: http://www.winknews.com/news/top/27067969.html
Also, apparently there has been four deaths from FAY. See more here: http://www.winknews.com/news/local/27050684.html
Our local mets here are stressing the fact of preparedness, because we still could see FAY strengthen to a Cat 2, even though it is unlikely she will strengthen.
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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It formed just offshore in the mono passage...the inital position is where the 1st statement is. Such as...Recon found it...then 3hrs later they started issueing advisorys @ 5pm and its position then was on the coast or "inland".
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charlottefl
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Fay's outflow looked kinda hindered there for a while, judging by the Vis sat, seems to be improving. Is that maybe cause of the ULL to it's west retreating? Now that the sun is fully up found the LLC and it's right where the has it listed. If you look on WV imagery, the flow changes soon, wouldn't be suprised to see a NW motion here very shortly.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Fay's outflow looked kinda hindered there for a while, judging by the Vis sat, seems to be improving. Is that maybe cause of the ULL to it's west retreating? Now that the sun is fully up found the LLC and it's right where the has it listed. If you look on WV imagery, the flow changes soon, wouldn't be suprised to see a NW motion here very shortly.
I also see a blowup of convection beginning over the LLC, which could mean slightly improved conditions. If the ULL is retreating, not sure what that will mean in terms of motion.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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charlottefl
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May pull her a hair more west initially but I think that will be a temporary effect if at all. She should begin to feel the weakness in the ridge. Hurricane center discussion talked about 10-15 kts of vertical shear, so that may have been why the outflow looked hampered. It appears to have improved some, need to find a wind shear map.
Edited by charlottefl (Sun Aug 17 2008 03:32 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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but.. if the ULL retreats, wouldn't the ridge build behind it? So that would tend to be a significant impact I'd think.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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SteveABoston
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Loc: Boston MA
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Thank you everyone that responded to my interest in Tamp Bay airport on Monday , following the TPC guidance, I think I will be in and out just in time.....I follow this forum closely duing the tropical season and I think it is a great thing we have here....There are a lot of good comments and links and insight.....
Many years ago I was actively involved in TV and Radio metorology, but took a different career path back in the 80's.....so I do appreciate the value of this site......
Steve A
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Firebug814
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TWC just reported that the recon is heading down right now to check it out. I find it interesting that they have moved the storm more to the east this morning. Is there any particular reason as to why? I am still a little green to indepth hurricane tracking. 
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Intensity discussion from the latest Advisory. Looks like is pulling some hair this morning too.
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 (edited~danielw)
...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. THE SHIPS AND
MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48
HR...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER...FORECASTS
A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL...WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS...OR IF IT TRACKS MORE
TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Hmm 12Z midlevel air data is showing a stronger ridge over the central bahamas. This could result in a more WNW movement with landfall further up the florida coast. Models may adjust some with the 12Zruns coming out now.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Check out the Infrared link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
You can totally see the center is getting cook'n
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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I believe it would be because most of the more reliable models are trending in that direction. Sometimes it doesn't make any sense at all to us none-meteorologists, but in general the has an excellent "track" record with forecasting.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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I noticed that on the visible floater, also. Didn't take too long. Maybe that's why the are (as Daniel so correctly pointed out!) doing some "hair-pulling"!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I noticed that on the visible floater, also. Didn't take too long. Maybe that's why the are (as Daniel so correctly pointed out!) doing some "hair-pulling"!
Both hair pulling and hair splitting (in terms of track, with the models seeming to be in one of two categories this morning - either up the middle of the peninsula, or on trending more toward the central GOM)...
Glad *I* am not a met.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm seeing what appears to be two separate CoCs.
Visible imagery is indicating a LLC/ COC near. under the big thunderstorm blowup at roughly 21N/ 79W.
JSL loop is indicating a center trying to reform off of the SW tip of Cuba. Near 19.9N/ 77.7W
Could be a MLC .
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charlottefl
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If you watch cuban radar, IR, and visible, it appears the loss of convection was due to westerly shear. It appears the shear has relaxed some. Upper level outflow is improving on vis sat, and the radar appearance has improved, along with a burst of cold cloud tops almost right over top of the LLC.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I'm seeing what appears to be two separate CoCs.
Visible imagery is indicating a LLC/ COC near. under the big thunderstorm blowup at roughly 21N/ 79W.
JSL loop is indicating a center trying to reform off of the SW tip of Cuba. Near 19.9N/ 77.7W
Could be a MLC .
I see a hint of that on the AVN loop, Danny. In fact, I notice it more there than on the JSL loop. There's also some nice banding well away from the LLC, near the southern Bahamas. I would not be surprised to see some of the islands get gusty winds even though they have no watches or warnings up anymore.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Just out and about in SE Florida, Wal-Mart was normally busy, just a little more water sales and Publix was normal as well.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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I feel SE florida especially Broward County north shouldn't get much more than rain squalls coming up from the SE. Dade county though might get some tropical storm force winds..mainly south of Miami and over the glades.
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