LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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pressure in north miami beach:
29.62 in / 1002.9 hPa (Falling)
am asking mets who understand this better what is going on because it looks better, barometer seems low and banding on radar seems stronger
why has decided now it's weakening
and please answer me ...did the ULL to finally die
because I can't see it on any imagery wv or visible..
i would think if it was gone it would explain the better presentation
???
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has not removed Tampa from the Watches and Warnings. And they probably won't until Fay is north of Tampa.
Aviation forecast for Tampa Airport for tomorrow.
FM0800 05010G20KT P6SM -RA VCTS SCT015CB BKN035 OVC060
"From 4AM EDT wind NE 10kts gust to 20kts. Light rain and Thunderstorms in vicinity"
FM1400 02020G35KT 4SM RA SCT010 BKN025 OVC040 PROB30 1420
VRB30G50KT 1/2SM +RA SQ OVC010CB=
"From 10 AM EDT, wind NNE at 20kts gust to 35kts. Rain"
"From 10AM EDT to 4PM EDT. winds variable at 30kts with gusts to 50kts, 1/2 (0.5) mile visibility in heavy rain and squalls"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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looking at the available data... radar/sat/recon... think the mid level center.. around 11k to -18k feet that i have been watching is about almost over the top of the "surface" center... this could only mean intesification, IF the dry air does not preclude it from happening... but in the last 45mins on Key West Radar... there is a northern "wall" of banding around the coc showing up and getting that wrapping around appearence... right under those tall HOT Towers on IR sats. The next few hrs on radar will be very telling.
The last center fix was:
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 23:36:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°57'N 81°51'W (24.95N 81.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 27 miles (44 km) to the N (351°) from Key West, FL, USA.
and does anyone know why Kermit flew to and landed in New Orleans, LA. Is that the back-up site for KWBC/AOML/HRD operations, since Tampa may have been in the path? plan landed at the International Airport around 21:40:00Z.
Yep...when McDill is in the cone they move flight ops out of Tampa...they can stage a number of places, but NO was the closest location not in the path. JK
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by wxman007 (Tue Aug 19 2008 12:48 AM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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only 4 more hours until Fay is expected to have its first bands appear in Lee County. Mets here are saying that Fay will be directly over us at approx. 8:00am tomorrow. Her Barometric pressure remains the same as it did at 5pm. Fay is about 105 miles away from Naples, Florida now. What are the chances of her Strengthening from a TS to Cat 1? She seems to be deteriorating on Satellite, and the pressure remains the same. Do we still think Fay will even make a Cat 1 hurricane?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
Edited by StrmTrckrMiami (Tue Aug 19 2008 12:21 AM)
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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Post edited to remove misinformation~danielw
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 19 2008 12:34 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Try not to depend on the satellite data entirely. Use the radar data too. This will give a second dimension to the satellite data. The Weather Channel " Local on the 8s" is a good place to get updates every 10 minutes.
Fay has many personalities and is not a typical Tropical Storm.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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I just stepped outside and the wind seems to be picking up significantly. Is wind a significant factor in this storm?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay
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Someone at Wunderground posted yesterday about Kermit and Miss Piggy and said they would both land in New Orleans so it must be their back up plan...
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/captcosmic/show.html
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~jess~
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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There seems to be quite a bit of worry about Fay this evening....let me address a few things...
1) There will not likely be any wholesale changes out of the 11pm package from about the evolution of the future track. They generally don't mess with the late package very much, and will likely just refine their forecast, not make wholesale changes. There is really no reason for them to change very much right now..perhaps a slight shift to the east in the first 12-24 hrs, but the rest of the forecast is fairly sound at this point.
2) We are getting some excellent data right now from the Keys Nexrad, and you are seeing a strengthening TS doing what it does...the morphology of Fay is changing as the storm evolves, which is why you are seeing various motions, jogs, etc. You have to use average motions (ie, over 4-6 hrs) to get a true picture of what Fay is doing...don't worry about a jog to the east or west or whatever unless it lasts over 2-4 hours..then you can start to fret over a directional change.
3) in the same vein...the only reliable sats to use in center tracking are vis's...IR's can fool you, and WV is WORTHLESS (I say this every year...LOL). At this point you should only use radar and recon to determine where the center is.
There is going to be a LOT of study of Fay from a forecast performance standpoint. I am starting to think that the synoptic recon missions actually degraded the model performance, instead of enhancing it.
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Jason Kelley
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it's a dumb name, but it popped into my head the other night when i was looking at those tracks across florida, then bending back to the west. guidance keeps leaning further to the right in the short term so i guess it's time to start contemplating this idea some.... that the storm makes a sort of stretched S-type path and goes over the state, getting off the east coast enough to perhaps reintensify some. it isn't arcing way out into the eastern gulf like i was earlier worried, and now seems to be fighting to not start drifting northeastward... so that it may not even go in above naples. a goodly number of the models are showing slow movement and favorable atmospheric conditions if the system gets over the atlantic... so even though i feel sorta nuts saying this, folks further up the coast, say in the usually-ignored-by-hurricanes cape canaveral to cape romain swath of coastline... keep your peepers on this one. if it's 50-100 off jacksonville on thursday morning and drifting in the sauna out there we may get more of a storm up the coast than the official forecast shows.
in the short term, have noticed that the storm is slowly consolidating, with an oblong and almost dual center spinning around like a peanut on radar. the core convection is trending upward, with the banding features on the eastern side perhaps slowly strengthening. it doesn't make a whole lot of difference whether it strengthens to hurricane force before landfall, because the winds are going to be over the keys, coastal waters, glades.. maybe over okeechobee. most of peninsular florida will get several inches of rain.. maybe a dozen or more in a few places. these slow movers that are elongated like this always do plenty of that. it looks pretty certain what the lower half of florida is in for... at this point the forecast questions are much less certain on the effects further north.. just a rainy depression for ga/sc, or maybe a regenerated system from offshore? i'm dying to know... it's really hard to get any *real* tropical weather in my neck of the woods, because it would have to be a very vigorous gulfside system that moves in to the northeast really fast (think Opal 100 mi east), or one of those rare, mercurial atlantic hurricanes that decided to blast into georgia or lower sc with serious intensity (think hugo 100 miles west). there's a fleeting chance i might get... barely something. that goes in the wow category for this amateur forecaster. you coast dwelling sadists probably think that's pathetic, and coast dwelling hurricane-haters maybe wish they could borrow my odds.
HF 0046z19august
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks Jason.
To correct the above posts on the Tampa Forecast I will post the latest Forecast here.
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...BRANDON...
TAMPA
535 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/ZFPTBW
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 19 2008 12:58 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well just got the some of the 00Z data models... and i have to say... from 3 days on... that cone is going to be wide! Looks like most models take landfall now right near Naples, Fl. No susprise there... and then onto near the cape and or off shore of Jacksonville, Fl.. after that there is again a wide range of solutions... and the blocking pattern is still there, with a possibility of a "westward" track... the goes back in around GA/SC border.. close to the HWRF and then onto the Ohio river Valley... BAMS suite the same as early...
only expect minor changes in the 11pm package... to adjust for landfall location in the morning... and then expect the 3-5day cone to be about the same... as the 5pm
Better 2D look at the 00Z models
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 19 2008 01:08 AM)
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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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Good Evening All.. I am here in Palm Beach County and as of 9:15 it is rainy, but not much wind. I am wondering if we should expect mainly a rain event as Fay passes to our west, or will we be experiencing some wind events also. It has been squally all day here.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon just passed through the center again... around 25.07N 81.85W at 01:10:30Z. looks like pressure may be down some.. 996-997mb? Will see when dropsonde data gets back to the servers in about 10-15 mins. Looks like movement still north, but its hard to tell sense last center fix was about 40 mins ago.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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LDH892
Meteorologist
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Posts: 13
Loc: Carolinas
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Hank makes a great point about not letting your guard down in N. FL and GA. If Fay gets forced far enough east to reemerge over the western Atlantic ocean then we may see some slow re-intensification and thus impacts on regions in coastal northeast FL and coastal GA that have been left alone for quite some time. We saw some pretty drastic shifts in the models today, first starting with the and HWRF going off the deep-end this morning not being able to handle the big ridge building in from the northeast predicted by the and NAM. Radar imagery looks impressive with the single wide convective band trying to wrap around the LLC, it appears that Fay will reach land before this happens however. How about that rain band / feeder band stretching from the storm all the way SE and S to off the N. coast of Cuba? I'm anxious to see what thinks about the track variations with this next set of model runs (00Z). Will Fay make it to the western Atlantic? Will she stay inland and get pushed back towards the W.? The drought here in the western Carolinas could really use 4-5 inches of rain from her.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hope this helps....if you go to the main page, you can find the local Hurricane statements for your area. These will most likely be the best source for what to expect weatherwise.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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I just lowered the pool, getting ready for a wet noisy, wet night. The upside of this mess is Lake O's water level should get back close to normal and the everglades will get replenished.
They say we got over 2" of rain already.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 94
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Just as a reference point for everyone, 81.9 W is approx due south of Fort Myers, FL, a hair slightly to the West of Naples, not trying to split hairs, just giving a reference point. Looks like partial landfall in Naples, the COC does not appear it will come fully onshore until about Ft. Myers, on a current due N track.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well recon center fix has:
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 1:10:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°03'N 81°52'W (25.05N 81.87W)
B. Center Fix Location: 34 miles (55 km) to the N (351°) from Key West, FL, USA
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the east quadrant at 0:57:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 1:15Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (91°) from the flight level center
Notice too that the G-IV is heading into New Orleans area... they completed there GOM mission..
With regards to Fay... i think Dry air is winning at this time... until we can get a burst of convection on the south side of the center, the chances of it making hurricane strength at landfall is fading i think.. which is a good thing!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 19 2008 01:44 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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This is the radar loop out of Key West...if that little circle directly north is the center, then I am thinking the Northward movement would be correct...you can kind of see where it jumped to the NE, but now appears to be moving due North. Any and all thoughts appreciated!
Key West Radar Loop
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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