scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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There is no eastward motion right now.. just a slight jog to the NNE still.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Since Fay's center is sloppy & disorganized now we are back to problem we had around Cuba & Key West, you just can't find the center thus you can't tell which way she is going. Overall she appears to be moving mostly north with a slight bit of west tilt that parallels the coast. The main thing I'd look for is a tighten eye like structure, an increase in heavy/strong showers or any pressure drops to indicate if Fay is getting stronger or just holding station. A slight jog or wobble at this stage makes little difference since the center is so ragged. It doesn't look like she get far enough into the Atlantic to gain much power (maybe 10-15mph max), so the main threat continues to be the constant rain. I like the new WonderMaps RADAR since you can zoom, overlay other data and see personal weather stations... good stuff.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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The center of Fay is becoming elongated WSW-ENE ... a newer center might be trying to form further off the coast near 28.6N-80.4W. If this is the case then she has a better chance to get organized this evening into tonight before her turn West making landfall late tonight or tomorrow morning from, Titusville-New Smyrna beach.
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TampaSu
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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scottsvb - I find I tend to follow your posts closely and I'd like to know what your timeline/expectations are for the Tampa area (I'm in north central Hillsborough - minutes from Pasco line). If we see anything from Fay's travel back over the state, what and more importantly, when?
So far, our conditions have been just very overcast - it looks like a TS outside without the rain or wind. I think it rained for about ten minutes yesterday, and there were a couple of gusts. We have family in south Daytona, and they have said it isn't bad there at all - of course they are the type that could be hanging on to a flag pole blowing in the wind perpindicular to the ground, and they'd still say it wasn't bad!
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kromdog
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NHC 2:00 PM Advisory:
...FAY STALLS NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINS...
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Wow, you took the words right out of my mouth 
I was observing the radar out of Melbourne and saw exactly what you mentioned! The radar shows an elongated circulation, but it seems a new one looks to be forming a bit offshore. If this happens, and from what I'm already seeing, Fay is strengthening a tad. The satellite presentation this morning had Fay as a ragged looking storm while this afternoon it has improved in banding and structure (getting more symmetrical). It's gonna be interesting to see what Fay does this evening, especially since I'm off work today.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Timeline I posted was above. Making landfall again very late tonight or Thursday morning and moving west across the state and ending up late Thursday night or Friday from Spring Hill-Crystal River. It won't be more than what it is now..but on the east coast it still has that outside chance of gaining strength before it makes landfall there in the next 18-24hrs..( and thats saying it gets better organized offshore and not on the coast still). Radar still isn't the best, we need Recon fixes and ground obs.
Tampa will get alot of feeder bands and gusts to TS force when it moves west across the state. Really just alot of rain, flooding in the usual areas of St Pete and S Tampa Bayshore. Possible Tornado watches and individual warnings could happen as the system moves across.
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NewWatcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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scott
looks to me like it is almost fully offshore now
here in daytona, not even much rain or wind, considering.
it also seems to be consolidating and building convection
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Wed Aug 20 2008 06:22 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Yep, anyways folks I'm off for awhile tonight. I'm sure Jason K, Hank,Clark and the other Mets can keep ya updated.
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MikeC
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Here's a note from Ed Dunham:
At 2PM Tropical Storm Fay was located 10 miles east of Port St. John over the Cape - and stationary. For the next 12 to 24 hours Fay will move little if at all - perhaps a slow drift to the north or northwest. Many streets and entire subdivisions are flooded - and they will stay that way for at least another 24 hours - probably more. If you don't have an emergency, please stay off the road - some of the roads are so badly flooded that you cannot tell where the drainage ditches are. If you have any reports of conditions in your area, I'll be glad to pass them on in these storm updates. Stay safe - and dry!
Almost all of Lake Washington Road is flooded. Lake Washington itself has
now expanded east of the water treatment plant. The water has no place to
go. Rainfall in our area is now at 14" with 16" in Satellite Beach.
Deerwood Trail and Wilderness Lane are completely covered with water as is
Harlock Road. Most of Wickham Road, Jon Rodes Blvd, Parkway and Country
Lane are all under water. Quite a mess - and its almost continuous heavy
rain - I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime. The National
Guard is rescuing folks from their homes on Jon Rodes and on the western end
of Lake Washington Road.
ED
Reports from Satellite Beach:
Nearly all East-West streets have flooding at their intersection with So. Patrick Dr (the west end of the roads). The worse is Ocean Blvd & So. Patrick (where the Chevron station/convenience store is near the So. base exit). there is actually moving water w/a heavy current along the ditch crossing over Ocean blvd. Ocean Blvd. is completely flooded for 2 blocks. In Sat. Bch. proper - Jackson Ave & Park Ave & Desoto Pkwy- nearly 4 blocks under deep water; Sea Park Blvd, Cassia Blvd, Cinnamon Ave have 2 blocks underwater. And it's still raining heavily.
I now have a mote ¾ around my townhome in Satellite Beach and can see from the upstairs that the parking lot of the Quik Mart is flooded, as is the adjacent street.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Does everyone notice a more consolidated large eye being formed, mostly off the coast right now?
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SeaMule
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Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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i see a consolidated eye forming. It's filling in to the west on the land part. looks like Fay will sit just off the coast...and pump in about 40 inches more rain. life threatening for sure....
people won't be able to leave now.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Probably more a center of circulation than an eye. I guess it's possible a new center is forming, but I think its only a temporary flare-up on the eastern side. Time will tell.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Mike, I'm in Palm Bay. Over 16inches so far. Lots of flooding in Palm Bay also. Never have seen it this bad in Palm Bay. Retention ponds are full, overflowing into streets. What a mess!
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Mike
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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I am located at . I have been watching NASA radar and noticed the western wall fill in about an hour ago. This was from the south to north. Now I am watching it do it again, about half way there. This is making the COC a little tighter and centerd more offshore. I am also noticing the eastern wall of the COC is about 30-40 miles off the coast. This places the eastern part of the COC over the gulfstream. the southern wall is also starting to fill in. It will be an interesting evening here at .
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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yes ive sceen it all morning the tight inner core died and the outer core took over as the new center. Half over land, and half over water that ring is now contracting and focising trying to wrap a new inner core over water just south east of daytona.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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I live in Pasco Co. actually just south of your prediction and I do not want a visit from Fay. Today feels tropical, dark clouds and at times misty.
I just want to thank all of you. I have learned alot here. I do however have a question. Once Fay begins to move, do you think the movement will be slow like her tract over FL?
Edited by Southern4sure (Wed Aug 20 2008 07:56 PM)
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 50.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.49 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 74.8 °F
Salinity (SAL): 35.71 psu
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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if you go by the , Fays move to the west will take about 24 hours to cross the peninsula, slow down, then move farther west. The key is where that take place. The track will diminish Fay in 24-48 hrs. If it goes farther south and reenters the gulf, the Big Bend area will likely get the torential rains, as well as the length of the panhandle before moving inland. So many ifs. The models continue to jump around. The 18Z should give us a good indication. If it moves north, Fay may stay over land during its westward motion.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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metwannabe
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Loc: NC
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I was about to post same observations, with particular attention to the 998 mb pressure, falling rapidly. I think scottsvb posted earlier that it may be trying to form a new center just off coast. These pressure falls 20 nm east of Cape Canaveral could be an indication of that.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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