StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Sorry for the one liner, but after watching streaming video for five minutes sans JK, I thought I'd remind everyone that it is 7pm CENTRAL time.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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We 60 MPH this AM. Now we have had sustained winds here at Ormond Beach of 3 MPH According to Ormond Beach Airport radar.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Fay sure does love Florida. I have been working today but it was a nice cloudy day, so business was good. The eye came in around 11 a.m. and looks to be moving out and now the worst of Fay has yet to come which is puzzling people here. There were people that told me that the storm is over, what they didn't know was that the eye was large and moving slow. Think they went ahead and canceled schools once again due to rain and wind and possible tornadoes as the eastern part of Fay starts in a few hours. Got my generator ready, had some power flicking on and off last night. Lots of people in Palm Coast and Flagler Beach did in fact lose power, some trees and power lines down, and fences in my area were destroyed. Now I looked at the 8 p.m. advisory and saw that Fays pressure dropped which indicates that it's somehow strengthening, just doesn't want to quit lol. Hopefully it will weaken soon and not strengthen on land like it did in South Florida. I'll keep you all updated on the conditions here as good as I can.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Fri Aug 22 2008 12:11 AM)
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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Looking at the JAX radar, I think it stalled again
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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My eyes are playing tricks. Melbourne radar makes it look like the eye is contracting AND, she jogged east just a tad.
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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I cannot disagree, Dan
It looks the same to me.
Earlier it looked as if it was sliding WSW and now it seems to have stalled
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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the large coc is filling in, which makes the actual true coc more visible..the storm is moving at 2 mph, but the models 18Z run all take Fay along the coast of the panhandle, some as a strong tropical storm, others as a depression....then it stalls...lots of rain no matter what it does
Fay seems to be just due west of Daytona..a west motion will keep it in the gulf longer, and risk intensification
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
Edited by pcola (Fri Aug 22 2008 12:31 AM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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I see. I think you mean the mid-level CoC is filling in, making the low-level CoC more apparent.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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seems to be moving faster now, maybe its an illusion
she is hard to get a handle on from watching radar because of her odd shape and wide center feature that changes shape and direction often, the storm moves west but it looks as if it is changing as it opens, shuts, blinks..
seriously, you just have to watch to be sure what will happen next
how fast will it take for her to cross florida at the place she is with an extrapolated track?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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Tampa has been "Golden" in all of this. We missed Fay coming in from the south and it looks like she will exit the state to our north. We have not recieved even a half inch of rain to this point. I am sure there are some showers to come but we were lucky again!
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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I know this sounds crazy, but it looks like the COC is back over Daytona! She does not want to leave the East Coast!
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NC
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You can make out the coc of circulation a little better from the JAX Radar. The Melbourne radar not really picking up coc. It appears the center is just nw of Daytona and just barely sw of palm coast drifting ever so slowly to the west.
(so hard to tell attm, if she has started a drift east, even longer days ahead)
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Edited by metwannabe (Fri Aug 22 2008 01:57 AM)
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Davida G
Registered User
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Loc: Hastings, Florida
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This has been a deceptively quiet afternoon and evening here in the southwest corner of St. John county. I was just explaining to our roommate that in fact, no the storm is not OVER yet, it just decided to camp out. I swear this is just the storm never wont ends! 
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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If the COC is over Daytona, then the south end of the eyewall is over New Smyrna. We are getting soaked and there are constant wind gusts. Not that we can complain as Brevard county has been getting this for three days whereas we have been getting it only since this afternoon as we spent the past three days mostly in the middle of the COC. We do now also have flash flood warnings and it does not look like things will be getting better anytime soon.
I am looking at a doppler radar of the rain bands and I am wondering:
Could it be that Fay is getting energy and moisture from the Atlantic AND the Gulf at the same time?!
BTW - I just checked the track forecast: Fay will likely make a 4th landfall in Florida.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Well, I am now under a Tropical Storm Watch, almost... it's hairy, at least. The watch goes to Destin, and I'm almost due north of Destin, although the NWS Mobile site does not mention the watch for my area. The local forecast DOES call for 35mph winds beginning Saturday and into Saturday night, and the official forecast has Fay VERY near me (within .1 degree) at 7pm Saturday (CDT) as a 40mph storm. Obviously if she moves south of the forecast track and strengthens, that could mean more impact (due to a stronger storm) or even less (due to a further south track)... but I expect warnings and watches to continue to be shifted west as Fay moves in this direction.
Trivia question: Assuming Fay does move into the GOM again and head far enough west, it's increasingly likely that the ENTIRE state of Florida will ultimately have been placed under a tropical storm watch or warning (or hurricane watch/warning), for a single storm. Has this ever happened before? I believe as it stands now, the only area that has not already been placed under an alert during Fay's trek is the area west of Destin.. and that will likely change by Saturday.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Quote:
BTW - I just checked the track forecast: Fay will likely make a 4th landfall in Florida.
Actually, if you take a look at the current track, there's the possibility of not just a 4th landfall, but also a 5th. It would have to come in almost exactly where the track is now to make it work, but it's in play.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well... going out on a limb.. but i think the much waited movement has started to pick up steam a little... based on what i have looked at... i think Fay has gone somewhere of about 12-15 miles in the last 1-2... (her right side of coc is on the west side of I-95 now... so she's movin.. just slow)
what i am really interested in... my wx stix... haven't really seen the pressure fall in the last two days... sticking around 1011mb here.... in fact it had increased each day for the last three days... as soon as i see a steady drop then i know someone is on the way! 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 22 2008 04:58 AM)
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I'm not really sure what is going on but here in Camden Co. Georgia over the past hour the winds have gotten worse.
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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2AM Advisory has Fay moving W at 5 mph. Radar images shows the center of the storm squarely in between Ocala and Gainsville, looks like she is about halfway across the state now. Would five landfalls at storm strength be a record?
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Latest track guidance continues to shift southward and westward and upper air continues to build ridge to Fay's north and I think everybody needs to start looking at the real possibility of a new love interest; New Orleans. If this guidance pans out and if Fay can re-develop an inner core we might have her as a hurricane if she stalls in the GOM. I saw nothing in the latest model guidance to believe there's a west-north-west track in her immediate future.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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