MikeC
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Original Update
Hurricane Gustav has increased to a 90MPH Hurricane this morning, and is approaching the tip of Haiti.
The forecast track has been adjusted westward, bringing Florida mostly out of the Cone except for the Keys, however it may become an issue in the Gulf we'll have to watch later this week.
For now, Haiti, and the south coast of Cuba will have to watch it.
If Gustav was not enough, there are 3 other waves in the tropics that could develop too.
More to Come soon.
Discuss models and future possibilities for Gustav in the lounge.
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
2:00AM Update
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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woah, boy, that forecast track sure changed quickly. i dont want to see a west to east curveture once it hits that gulf though.
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Josh Delsman
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I think it would be unwise at this point to say that Florida is completely out of the equation. There is still over 225 NM and 300NM of average forecast error on either side of the position points for days 4 and 5, respectively. Should the high pressure that is forecast to build on top of Gustav not be as strong as anticipated, there could be a rather large shift in track and intensity. The official discussion this morning said that the models still have to become more stable before they become more confident in their forecast. Let's not cast a shadow of a doubt that this storm isn't less predictable than any of the rest.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Also a timing question. If the track verifies it calls for a slow down and that's a long time when things can change.
If he intensifies to Cat 3 he can build his own high aloft and models could change.
long way to go before any complacency.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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ftlaudbob
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The stronger it gets the better chance it has to move more northerly.The polar affect could take place and also the HIGH will not push it as far west as the models now predict.Also the position of the High is critical,if it does not expand further west or south west and Gustav gets stronger than it will travel more to the north.It will need to be heading wnw by this afternoon or early tonight to stay on the projected path.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
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Yes, you're right! Here's part of the 5am discussion:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE
MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS
MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY
OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE
GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
As we all learned with FAY, timing is everything. What, where and when with Gustav will depend on the atmospheric conditions around him as he moves...and hopefully, maybe that west movement will pan out. At this point, everyone along the entire Gulf Coast needs to be watching and paying attention..especially with the upcoming holiday weekend coming up.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Evan Johnson
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yes i think its safe to use fay as a example, they had it about 20 miles off shore of the southern florida west coast. after it intensified a bit, that forecast path had it going through ft meyers northeast.
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Beach
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I was looking at this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
Is there any way that the thunderstorms at 65W 25N
could erode or effect the HIGH pressure ridge that is to keep Gustav heading more Westerly?
(personal reference was removed.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 05:42 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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It is easy to visualize the words in the discussion by studying the WV loop and a shift to the west is very imminent. However, what is the future of that High? If it remains in place for the next several days, the current steering is back over Florida, taking Gustav over the western edge of Cuba into the GOM and back to the NE...this is a very similar set up to Charlie in 2004. Someone else said timing is everything, and the push of that trough in the Southwest US to the east will be the big factor in how all this plays out.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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I'm watching that trough, too. It's position relative to Gustav is going to be really important in a few days. The winds over the GOM are from the SW for now and that would indicate a northeasterly turn if they persist into next week.
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Michael
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LoisCane
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The water vapor loop offers a lot of questions and not a lot of answers.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Gustav is really close to 95 all things considered and the area between them is quite narrow.
And the high pressure that is building in is moving to the SW and it makes me curious as to how
Gustav is going to move west? I'm even wondering if it is possible that he slows down and loops a little bit in place
until the steering currents settle down.
Have any models shown anything like that? I don't believe so but from watching the WV loop and the storm itself
I am wondering.
See clearer on the floater the effect of the high feeding in on it's left side.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
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MichaelA
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A couple of wider views to consider which show the trough axis around 95W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
Also, the westward direction of the forecast track becomes evident.
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Michael
PWS
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doug
Weather Analyst
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I just want to comment a bit on the WV link you posted and elaborate a bit on my comments a little earlier.
There is clear evidence of the anti-cyclonic turn in the atmosphere which extends out to about 87 W and it will impact Gustav on the east very quickly. Gustave should then slide W or even a little south of West along the southern periphery of this high, along the southern coast of Cuba. The models have all grabbed this and that is how it should play out for the next several days.
That high is kind of blocked to its east and nothing seems to be moving too fast.
The trough in the midwest seems to me to be breaking down a bit, and even an anti cyclonic flow may be developing. This has been picked up on by the European model which keeps Gustave on the left of the track all the way to Mexico.
However, over the SW an upper low seems to be developing and there is a push of drier air down from the NW. If this pushes eastward in the next three days, this should have an effect on where Gustave goes.
The track looks good for three days, but beyond that ???
(personal reference removed.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 05:55 PM)
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MikeC
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Apologize for the site issues, once again were getting very large amounts of traffic (above 1500 simultaneous) and we're tweaking the site to fix the issues.
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Storm Hunter
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recon just turned inbound from the SW side of Haiti... I do see the eye is trying to show up a again on sats... and i think Gustav is making landfall this hour along the coast of central Haiti... Outflow in all quads looks good... so i don't think will see to much in disruption on the the system as it crosses the the land mass.
looks like around 18.1667N 72.7667W was the landfall.. recon flew into the coast then turned out... pressure maybe 979mb... hard to tell
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Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 26 2008 06:05 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Some of what I posted earlier today in the Forecast Lounge is appropriate to repeat here:
If you wish to thank someone or respond to a specific individual, use the Private Message capability - is not a Chat Room.
The one line post rule still applies, i.e., don't make them - there are very few exceptions to this. Don't simply state the obvious. One-line posts consume bandwidth and that can become a problem when the site gets busy - and the site is starting to get busy.
Don't get into an argumentative discussion with someone - take it off thread via the PM capability.
Your help on these items will allow the site to manage the processing burden and prevent it from crashing (again).
ED
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
...GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
Maby Gustave is trying to what fay did not do, plow right into cuba and runn straght up the back bone over land.
Trying to figure the possibility the hurricane killer islands protect the SE and Gulf of mexico again (YAY). I do think about the poor people down in hati right now wonder how much warning they actully got in remote area's.
Imangine going through fay only to wake up a week later with 95mph winds on your door step.
Edited by Robert (Tue Aug 26 2008 06:12 PM)
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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I'm hoping for a track over the mountainous areas of Cuba to rip it up fairly good but taking a dispassionate look at the WV loop I don't see it happening.
The path just south of Cuba and either into the slot or just east of it looks right through the next three days or so. That's very bad news in that it likely sticks a Cat 3 into the southern Gulf in about 3-4 days.
Beyond that its more fluid; I can see an argument for the further-west path but the is the closest to my thinking at the present time, and that's very un-good, as a quite-small deviation east on that means that I get to meet Gustav personally, and I'd really rather not. The ugly is that someone's going to get some really bad news in the next week or so; I don't see how that is avoided.
(Forecast Lounge material was removed.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 06:37 PM)
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Ed in Va
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Not to minimize the potential winds, but the 124 is at flight level, I believe. I believe that's somewhat above the surface winds.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Looks like the track is now definitely more WNW which will keep it over the peninsula that much longer and will diminish intensity. Interesting I could not actuate the link to the tropical forecast positions on the long floater loop. Does that mean the track is being modified?
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doug
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