MikeC
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It looks like it will by tonight (could be the afternoon). I'd like to see better T Numbers than what it has, it's trending toward that way, but not quite there yet. Convection is starting to organize around the center/consolidating, and the overall large size is giving way to a more concentrated area. Also lack of QUIKSCAT this year is hurting for systems like this.
With the consolidation it may adjust the center slightly more to the north. This is another reason why it's still 60%. Once there is a clear center the game is on. (Best track has it at 9.7N 39.9W)
I'm a lot harder on this system than I otherwise would be because of the calendar. That and conditions out ahead of it still will likely cut it to pieces. There are some hints on satellite imagery that shear may venture into it more (especially if it forms more north).
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Hugh
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Quote:
It looks like it will by tonight (could be the afternoon). I'd like to see better T Numbers than what it has, it's trending toward that way, but not quite there yet. Convection is starting to organize around the center/consolidating, and the overall large size is giving way to a more concentrated area. Also lack of QUIKSCAT this year is hurting for systems like this.
What happened to QUICKSCAT? Apologies if it's common knowledge, I wasn't aware that it didn't exist this year.
Navy has issued a . Ironically, now that the sun is up, it DOESN'T look as much on the verge of being a TD as it did with just the infrared images... although the floater is no longer over the system exactly - hopefully they'll move it soon. There's a big blowup of convection northeast of the LLC, so maybe it will reform there.
Time to dust off my "Favorites"
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
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For Quikscat, The main sensor on the satellite died on November 23rd, although it was deteriorating earlier in the season. They couldn't restart it, so the Quick Scatterometer is gone. I think there is a replacement with better tech scheduled for launch in 2015, but until then that semi-detailed wind data for remote storms just won't be there.
Quikscat usefulness vs cost was debated, but it's obvious in situations like 92L it could be beneficial. Besides wind estimates, it did wave heights, sea ice estimation, assisted with aviation weather, iceberg movements, and helped quite a bit to determine the state of El Niño.
There still is the ASCAT though, but that's only a shadow of what QuikScat had.
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MichaelA
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92L doesn't look quite as impressive in the latest vis pics. Shear taking a toll on this system already? Smaller aerial coverage with tops blowing off to the North. Some convection seems to be trying to form in the SW quadrant, though. If that persists, 92L will still have some chance to continue to develop. Whatever happens, having something trying to spin up that far East and South this early in the season, is unusual and may herald the predicted very active season ahead. It is really far South to be this well developed, too - about 10° N now and seems to be heading more NW.
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Michael
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cieldumort
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92L appears to have consolidated somewhat under the deeper convection of the very late overnight and this morning. Positions still carrying the cyclone at anywhere under 10N are probably quite obsolete at this point, as the center of 92L is now traveling along and/or within deeper convection, and perhaps already somewhere in the vicinity of 10.5 to 10.8 N and 40.1 to 40.5 or so W.
As of 1500 UTC, 92L now resembles in many ways many of those short-lived tropical depressions or weak tropical storms of the central Pacific. I think that it is regrettable that QS is no longer online, as this could very well perhaps by now have confirmed the existence of a primary, satisfying LLC. 92L sure looks as close to "there" as I have just about ever seen. Convection is maybe still a bit wanting, but I've certainly seen worse on other systems befitting of the title.
Dr. Rick Knabb, now 's tropical expert (replacing Dr. Steve Lyons who has gone back to work for the NWS), was on just a little while ago opining that there is little to no shear ahead of 92L. I find that statement a bit puzzling, as it appears that 92L is already starting to feel the first bites of increased shear and a little less precipitable water, and that a zone of much higher shear and drier air exists not far to its north and northwest (up ahead), and while some models want to lift the trof imparting that shear, model shear forecasts also do not guarantee that will go away any time in the very near future - at the rate 92L is traveling interaction with this razor could easily occur before any such lifting away of the shear takes place.
Should the trof indeed pull up and allow 92L to remain coddled within its envelope of low shear and high water vapor content, the outlook for the islands later this week or next could get worrisome.
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Storm Hunter
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Clearly the low at the center is much better organized now... smaller center then the broad center we have been seeing for a few day... i'm still skeptical why the call is not made to at Tropical Depression now... Vis sats. clearly show a surface low. Shear is not to far off to the NW... and i would expect tonight to see some decent covection tonight if the shear doesn't affect to outflow channels... This evening will be interesting... if the system will hold or weaken...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
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Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 14 2010 08:30 PM)
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Hugh
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It looks pretty sick right now... getting shredded to pieces, in fact. The called it right after all. It could still overcome shear I suppose, but I'd say it's missed the best chance it has.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
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The development chances are on rapid decline, it looks it tried to move too far north and started running into the shear earlier than expected.
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Hugh
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Quote:
The development chances are on rapid decline, it looks it tried to move too far north and started running into the shear earlier than expected.
And, just as we say that, convection appears to have picked back up over the LLC. It's still got a 40-50% shot I'd say.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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jessiej
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If you look at the intesity forcast, it seems it will make it into the Carribean and rapidly strengthen.
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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Joeyfl
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I would not write this low off yet, while its a rough road ahead it still has chance in latest ir satellite shows a flar up of convection near center with 10-20 knot shear.
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Ed Dunham
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While it is true that the Invest area has seen a recent flareup of convection, the overall structure of the system has not shown the development necessary for classification as a tropical cyclone. The general appearance is still ragged and lacks organization. Regarding intensity, here is the latest output of the low-level model suite from :
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100615 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100615 0000 100615 1200 100616 0000 100616 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 42.1W 12.3N 44.6W 13.3N 47.1W 14.2N 49.5W
BAMD 11.3N 42.1W 12.6N 44.2W 13.8N 46.0W 14.8N 47.5W
BAMM 11.3N 42.1W 12.3N 44.4W 13.4N 46.5W 14.2N 48.5W
LBAR 11.3N 42.1W 12.9N 44.4W 14.4N 46.8W 15.7N 49.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 28KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100617 0000 100618 0000 100619 0000 100620 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 51.9W 16.8N 56.8W 18.5N 61.6W 19.8N 66.3W
BAMD 15.5N 48.6W 16.3N 50.9W 17.0N 53.4W 17.7N 55.3W
BAMM 14.9N 50.4W 16.2N 54.4W 17.4N 58.0W 18.4N 61.3W
LBAR 16.8N 51.2W 19.1N 54.6W 21.9N 56.9W 23.9N 59.0W
SHIP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 22KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 22KTS
These latest track forecasts would all move a very weak system to the north of the Caribbean Islands. Looking at the windshear forecast
Unisys 48hr Windshear Forecast
and the forecast points, the system has until about 17/00Z (a couple of days) to regenerate and develop before it encounters a zone of stronger windshear. It is fair to note that the zone of shear is anticipated to be on the decline in the 36 to 72 hour timeframe, and it is also fair to note that model intensity forcasts are seldom very accurate.
ED
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Storm Hunter
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hmm... see the 2am now back to 50%... the overall structure at the surface and mid levels is getting better... but appears to me that the upper levels are causing the problems... it appeared that some drier air was "sucked" into the system yesterday on the southern side of 92L and caused some problems... appears there still about 20mph shear overhead... but more and stronger is ahead... before it appears that it should begin to weaken in about 48-72 hrs.... still trying to figure if this will go into carb or go north of islands... leaning towards an entrance into carib. as of the 00Z data i have seen... will be interesting to see what happens today... as states this could become a Tropical Depression later today... time will tell
I still think 92L is very close to TD status if not a TD in its organization. Clearly a center can be found on a Shortwave IR
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jun 15 2010 06:03 AM)
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cieldumort
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In just about any practical sense, 92L has straddled the line several times over the last 36, to maybe 48 hours, or so. Given that likes persistence when they make a call, this fickle nature may have been enough to keep them conservative for a system so far out in the Atlantic, well-removed from any buoys, boats, and such.
The most recent "night vision" shortwave IR images have been suggesting that the LLC has been getting much better defined, once again, and taken with a recent AMSU pass (see below) one could argue that the LLC and MLC are pretty well linked up, and that sufficient convective banding has taken place.
But, once again... persistence. Must ... wait ... wait ...
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danielw
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While I don't recall seeing a better satellite photo of the LLC and MLC being stacked in the vertical I'll admit that 92L is staying under the radar , or "straddling the line" as you said. Lower level of development would lend to a closer approach of the system to the Lesser Antilles. It would also give the models a rough time with forecasts.
Closer to home. A weak trough in the Bay of Campeche appears to be consolidating. Yesterday's visible indicated a vortice on the western edge of the system. Presently there is a central area of thunderstorms and three strange looking bands separated by nearly 120 degrees around the system.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-jsl.html
I'll call it a trough at this point after looking at the loop. It's definately an area to watch as the BOC is one of the preferred areas for June development... normally.
Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 15 2010 04:12 PM)
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hogrunr
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Mark Sudduth over at Hurricanetrack mentioned the spot in the BOC yesterday in his weekly hurricane discussion video, and being that I am close to the Texas coast it sparked my attention. At the time the system was just coming off shore of Mexico, but since then, the convection has really exploded and stayed that way. It is hard to tell at this point whether the small circulation is still there or not, but the bands are certainly evident. It is currently sitting just between two areas of high shear (20-30 knots), so it is in a good spot for most things needed for development (low shear, high heat content). However, depending on the movement of the areas of shear that are currently surrounding it are, it could very easily turn out to be nothing.
CIMSS Wind Shear
As mentioned by the :
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEAR STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS INTERACTING
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N92W SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
Edited by hogrunr (Tue Jun 15 2010 06:29 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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92L is taking a beating by the shear now... based on sats... appears the shear is affecting the whole system now... from south to north... until the relaxes... 92L will have a hard time developing into anything.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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cieldumort
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The approximate center of 92L (roughly 13.3 N 46 W as of this entry) is currently passing to the south of
Buoy 41041 (located at 14.357 N 46.008 W). Pressures at the station 41041 have fallen at a slow rate, and maximum 1-min sustained winds have thus far reached a peak of at least 35 MPH at an elevation of 5 meters above sea level, and have generally been a range of 15-30 MPH this afternoon. A slight wind has shift occurred, shifting from mostly east to mostly ene, and now back to east, suggesting either a very small closed circulation (if one still exists), but more likely 92L is now once again an open wave, as also suggested by its appearance in visible satellite images.
The weak remains of this cyclone which will remain nameless could be of some concern late this week or next should it manage to hang in there until a potential sweet spot opens up for it - at this time the most likely location/s for improved chances of development could be the western Caribbean or GOM - next week if it survives till then - and all pure speculation at this point, but something to watch for.
Elsewhere, disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche mostly had to do with an ULL interacting with a surface trof together dragging up some deep moisture from the tropics. Surface pressures have not been falling, and there is probably only a small chance at best for tropical cyclone development in that region over the near term.
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danielw
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Buoy 41041 pressure bottomed out about 3 hours ago. Appears to be a diurnal cycle. But the winds have increased to 23 kts gusting to 31 kts. Seas are up to 12 ft and wind direction is back to SSE.
Beats me, unless the center reformed in a different location. Compared to yesterday. Winds nearly double on sustained and gusts. Barometer is down 0.05 inches. Dominant wave period is at 9 seconds.
Nice to know that someone else is watching the back door... GOM.
Hard to ignore, as the dreamsicle IR loop is at the bottom of the screen on the Weather Channel. Any cyclonic curvature of the clouds in the GOM will raise an eyebrow this time of year.
WV GOM loop still indicating the ML or UL LOW is centered offshore of Veracruz,MX. Pockets of convection rotating around the S and E side of the Low. Mostly cyclic convection.
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hogrunr
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Wow...the shear that was present around the area in the GOM has all but disappeared this afternoon. It was surrounded by 20-30 knot shear and that has relaxed dramatically. This are may become nothing, but I think that it has all of the setup to become something of importance very quickly.
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