scottsvb
Weather Master
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Ugh...that other site has alot of kids making wacky forecasts and calling clouds hurricanes when they are not even TDs yet. I would stay here on flhurricane unless peeps want a good laugh.
Anyways, right now I have (what appears to be the LLC) around 17.3 N and 82.5W. T-Storms are not concentrated enough around the COC but its alot better than yesterday. I give recon and 50-50 chance. There is a LLC and its pretty well defined. But will they find 25kt winds or more even? Also there is only popcorn T-Storms near the estimate LLC as of 11am eastern time. The models don't show a big blow up of T-Storms over it.. but with the pressure of 1006mbs and a well defined circulation, we will see what our recon tells us.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Pretty good analysis. I put it at 17.3N 83.0W at 25/15Z. Very weak circulation with all of the convection currently displaced east and south. If organization occurs, its going to take 36 to 48 hours and I'm not sure that it has that much time left. Maybe a TD in a day or so - maybe.
ED
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Pretty good analysis. I put it at 17.3N 83.0W at 25/15Z. Very weak circulation with all of the convection currently displaced east and south. If organization occurs, its going to take 36 to 48 hours and I'm not sure that it has that much time left. Maybe a TD in a day or so - maybe.
ED
The LLC I'm seeing isn't near 17N. It's around 16.0N, 82.5W, very near the convection.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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cieldumort
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At the risk of rambling, it still just appears that x92(93L) has a bit too much of an elongated/troffy nature to it, with perhaps now (once again) more than one competing fledgling surface/very near surface circulation. And so a big question in my mind remains as to whether the southern half doesn't just run into too much land before sufficient organization really takes hold today, leaving the northern half to perhaps reemerge as the best candidate for tropical cyclone development - either later today, or over this weekend/early next week, and before it, too, runs into land - most likely Belize and/or the Yucatan... if not also a zone of moderate shear that has set up some over the extreme northwestern Caribbean & southern GOM.
On the whole - Surface circulation: Appears to be elongated today. Convection: Much improved over the past 48 hours. Pressures: Somewhat lower than the past 48 hours. Upper-level winds: More conducive for still more development than over the past 48 hours, and continuing favorable for at least the next few days. Land interactions: Imminent.
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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danielw
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93L has graduated to the next level, apparently. has launched a RECON and they are airborne at this time.
94L is just NE of the Lesser Antilles. bumped it to a Code Yellow. Models are forecasting a N ATL fish spinner for 94L.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif
NOTE Left sidebar thumb for 94L is currently in the wrong location. It should update shortly.
Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 25 2010 03:37 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Hopefully the Recon will solve the mystery. We have at least three 'experienced" observers here that point to different locations. The Monterrey site has its satellite focused on a twirl right on the Honduran coastline, near some decent convection. The right answer may be that several point exist and none dominate. Frankly, I don't see any evidence of a westerly flow of the low level clouds that would confirm a center. I see the banding effect near 83/17 and I watched for as long as the loop allowed, but still did not see the westerly/southwesterly component there necessary to make a call. We will see soon.
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doug
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Well, of course we are all playing follow the "morphing" center......., but just to put my 2 cents in, i'd even make a guess for the center to be back a little bit, more around 17.0 and 81.0. Of course I am overstating the obvious with regards to the center being potentially broad and yet ill defined, however no doubt undergoing some significant consolodation of the overall envelope. Speaking of the overall envelope, it is quite sizeable and looks to be a potential major rain/flood maker. Seems to me that the center is somewhat elongated NNE/SSW, but either way I really do not think that the Yucatan Penninsula will greatly impede development. Land here, is basically flat, and over the years there have been tropical systems which even started developing there, despite the interaction of this landmass.
Though I think the overall system may now be borderline depression ( by loose definition of large rotation and consolodating convection, I would doubt that recon immediately closes off a clean center, nor find winds greater than 25kt's. However, given the much improved overall appearance this morning, and with regards to proximity to coastline (i.e. flood warnings, etc. ), I would guess that ANY greater organization, especially if a good sized blows up over an appearant LLC, the Hurricane Center might be quick to pull the trigger on calling it a depression.
My guess is that we'll see this system as our seasons first depression by daybreak tomorrow. Remember, despite current motion, any deepening system will be more apt to follow a mid level steering, rather than simply going with the surface flow, as it has done thus far. I am guessing that the Euro continues to take this system farther south and west, perhaps because it does not see ( or anticipate ) any deepening quite as quickly as perhaps some of the other models might.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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I see no distinct surface circulations within the broader circulation; however surface observations and streamlines do indicate there is a surface low of about 1005 or 1006 milibars right where is looking. Shear aloft is between 15 and 20 knots from the north with very light winds to the NW; however there is moderate shear continuing west to east from Yucatan to Cuba and until that area moves or lightens there is no chance of this system surviving in that environment in the here and now. All data points towards the area of convection off the Honduran coast but the proximity to land might also be a factor; stay tune!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Fri Jun 25 2010 04:05 PM)
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B_from_NC
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Looks to me that this center is ramping up quite well. Its right smack dab in the center of this loop. Get rid of the first few frames and speed it up about half way. The center peaks out for a bit. There is a bit of shear pushing the clouds off towards the south east from what it appears, but newer clouds are spawning closer to center.
1KM Loop
BG
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Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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I've stared and stared at the satellite loops and I can't find a circulation other than the broader area which covers the entire area. I keep looking at the convective blob just to the east of Honduras and if someone put a gun to my head I'd say that's it though based on the broader pattern it is in the "donut hole" devoid of convection. I keep looking at the Shear analysis and it's almost there but not quite in regards to where it's next to calm to the NW and of course the broader center is perfect. It's damn if you and damn if you don't, but I agree with Ed, if it is that blob off Honduras; times about up before it moves over land. It's a mess down there and there's a lot of mess; who knows at this stage in development that depression could show up anywhere but where I simply think shear to its north has to weaken and rights on the line east; could go either way.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Mystery solved? Monterrey has pic of what seems to be a small LLC at 16.2/83. This is also evident on the NOAA floater. A small ring of convection surrounds the point and on the picture it is almost an "eye" type feature, as it is clearly visible. Movement slightly N of W, at a pretty good clip.
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doug
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Hugh
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The largely worthless 2pm has been posted on the 's website. I say largely worthless because as far as 93L goes, it might as well say "Stay tuned for recon report". Actually, it does say that, but not in so few words. Probability has been upped to 80% during the next 48 hours, and the verbage has changed from "could form" to "likely will form at any time later today or Saturday".
94L is still shown with 20%.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
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Up to 80% chance for development, Recon nearly there,
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WeatherNut
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I saw the LLC in that loop as well. around 17n 83w. Also a big burst is occurring right over it. Recon is just about in that area too and there are some wind shifts showing up. I haven't seen the pressure readings yet though
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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scottsvb
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Center is pretty close to 17.3N and 83.2W
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Hugh
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They're flying through the LLC now, it appears. Top winds reported thusfar are 25kts.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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WeatherNut
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17.1N 83.1167W Is the last recon location and pressure is still falling and winds still from ESE. Have not seen a shift as of yet to more westerly component. What did we do before Google Earth ;-)?
I spoke too soon SW wind at 16.7667N 83.1167W
Edited by WeatherNut (Fri Jun 25 2010 06:20 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
17.1N 83.1167W Is the last recon location and pressure is still falling and winds still from ESE. Have not seen a shift as of yet to more westerly component. What did we do before Google Earth ;-)?
I spoke too soon SW wind at 16.7667N 83.1167W
I don't know what we did before Google Earth but the latest observations I'm seeing are calm winds from the south?
Ooops I spoke too soon too. Now I see that the plane turned due west, with light winds from the SE.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Jun 25 2010 06:24 PM)
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WeatherNut
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I think we are seeing 2 competing centers still. One close to where the SW wind shift occurred and another on SW of there. Regardless, I've seen no reports of a true west wind, although there is still some territory to sample
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
I think we are seeing 2 competing centers still. One close to where the SW wind shift occurred and another on SW of there. Regardless, I've seen no reports of a true west wind, although there is still some territory to sample
Yeah, you're right... the wind directions do not seem indicative of a close LLC, despite the satellite presentation. They've already sampled where the west wind should have been, too - I think!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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