mwillis
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Is it just me or did the center slow or stop in the last 2-3 frames?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/
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MikeC
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It slowed down or wobbled a bit, Short Range Loop, but it's still heading generally west. The long term loop shows it too, it's slowed a little recently, but not all that much.
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MikeC
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Likely last recon run for Alex before landfall found 948mb, second lowest to only to Audrey for June hurricanes.
Actually looks like they are going to go through the storm one more time.
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SeaMule
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I have seen hurricanes since 1979.....watching them like a hawk since I got creamed by Frederic in Mobile, al.
this is a strong cat 3...and given time...woulda easily become a cat 4...
remember Andrew? actually exploded and strengthened at landfall...this one will too...
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cieldumort
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Quote:
I have seen hurricanes since 1979.....watching them like a hawk since I got creamed by Frederic in Mobile, al.
this is a strong cat 3...and given time...woulda easily become a cat 4...
remember Andrew? actually exploded and strengthened at landfall...this one will too...
While Alex has the pressures to support the notion that it is a "strong cat 3," it does not have the size - and has not had the time, given its size. Like Ike, Alex is an exceptionally large hurricane ~ as such, it takes a good while longer for the winds to catch up with pressure falls... even falls of this magnitude to these currently very low levels.
Alex may yet make a final landfall as a Cat 3, but it is not yet a Cat 3, and will almost certainly not be able to ramp up its winds as rapidly as Andrew did.
In essence, for Alex, size matters, yet for Andrew, size mattered not.
--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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Storm Hunter
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looks like for the record... alex will have made landfall with 947mb and winds of 100mph?
recon heading out... but here's the last pass.. about 7 miles to the coast from the center of the eye!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 01:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 31
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 0:54:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°15'N 97°29'W (24.25N 97.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 116 miles (187 km) to the S (180°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 973m (3,192ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the E (93°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 202° at 82kts (From the SSW at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,507m (4,944ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) in the north quadrant at 23:37:50Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 01 2010 01:29 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Lets keep things in perspective and eliminate the hype. Alex is making landfall at this time and I see no sign of any explosive intensification. So far the only report of tropical storm force wind is from South Padre Island at 40G52mph, but I'm sure that strong Cat I or weak Cat II winds are occuring near the landfall point in Mexico.
When anyone constantly posts misinformation they lose credibility - please stick to realistic expectations.
ED
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MikeC
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Alex has made landfall in the small village of La Yuega, Mexico. It appears to be actually heading southwest now.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM CDT...0200 UTC
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA...
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...A
CATEGORY HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
--
The Flooding rains will probably be the biggest deal, the area of landfall is not very populated.
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JMII
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Pressure is already going UP at Brownsville. 5PM winds peaked at 38.0 mph with gusts at 48.3 mph. I'm sure we'll see some higher numbers but I doubt any place in Texas got hurricane force sustained winds. Mexico might be another story but I didn't check any weather sites down there.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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berrywr
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There is an excellent possibility you would have been right had it remain over water another 24 hours. In this case Alex ran out water and time. Despite being over land it continues to have a good eye on satellite; however there are some tall mountains in Alex's path and will likely be shredded apart in less than 48 hours. There is some discussion about Alex's moisture in time being pulled into the Central US but with a stout ridge in place over that area; doubtful unless it progresses east which some model do hint at with a deepening offshore long wave trough which continues in the Eastern GOM. There is some support for a low developing in the Eastern Gulf in a couple of days as a surface front is expected to reach the GOM in the next 24 hours. I live in Alabama and the front has past my location - Opelika and Montgomery however I'll comment more on that tomorrow and not from this thread.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Thu Jul 01 2010 06:00 AM)
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MikeC
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The models in general did poorly on Alex until late on the 25th, when a few started finally pointing the general direction where it went, even though plenty were split at the time. For a while the models were so consistently wrong to the north, I was really starting to think it may not ever get in the Bay of Campeche, but enough of a weakness in the ridge made it go northward a bit, enough to get quite a few people concerned it may head even further north.
Water vapor imagery kinda hampered that, and suggested a more westerly turn, which eventually did happen. The Hurricane center nailed the hurricane warning area pretty good, considering how large the storm was. It'll stay fairly strong until the center of the system runs against the mountains in Mexico, at which point it'll probably dissipate quickly.
The ongoing rainfall problem will probably be the largest story from Alex.
After Alex It'll probably be quiet for a bit (not long enough however), the most likely areas for July development are the West Caribbean, and Gulf, as well as west Atlantic start creeping in, toward later July you can start to consider African waves a bit more. The place to watch into next week is the Gulf, however.
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danielw
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Just a few excerpts and comments on the last page of Alex. Due to work scheduling I wasn't present for the last few hours up to landfall.
"Is it just me or did the center slow or stop in the last 2-3 frames?" Texas Two Step
"Likely last recon run for Alex before landfall found 948mb, second lowest to only to Audrey for June hurricanes." Everything is bigger in Texas
Just a we bit of humor to relax the atmosphere. No Pun intended.
Alex minimum central pressure of 947 mb could have supported a maximum wind speed of 128 mph. So all things considered we seemed to have lucked out.
edit:The Weather Channel is reporting that Hurricane Alex is the strongest June Hurricane on record since Hurricane Audrey in 1947.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 01 2010 12:46 PM)
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stormtiger
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Alex was a very interesting system to track beginning in the Eastrn Carribean until it reached the Mexican coastline.
I think it proved how much climatology affects systems in ways many of us including myself do not understand. Would the same system in August in the Eastern Carribean produced a Cat IV or V storm down the road? I'd have to guess yes.
947mb at landfall is a very low pressure for June, but the enormous size and the flooding rains may offset the lack of windspeed and in fact prove more deadly since the area of Mexico where the eye passed isn't very densely populated.
Katrina hit as a Cat III storm I believe yet the surge was of epic proportions. Alex hit with a falling barometer at 947mb; yet was "only" a Cat II storm.
these two hurricanes prove that despite our attempts to label these monsters, each storm is almost like an individual with varying characteristics. Presure doesn't always equal wind speed, and wind speed at landfall doesn't always equal storm surge, and people need to recognize that when the posts a warning there is imminent danger.
I know people in Biloxi who felt they were safe pre just because they survived Camille a much stronger landfalling hurricane that hit land closer to their home; yet in the end proved far more powerful. They said in a sense Camille killed even though it was years later.
Looking ahead, does an A Cat two hurricane in June make a severe hurricane season more likely? I bet Mr Ed could tell us that fairly quickly. The ingredients are there; warm waters, weakening trade winds, etc.; but as Alex just proved hurricanes are hard to predict and hard to label. We will have to wait and see what develops.
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Ed in Va
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Looks like Alex will give reseachers some new ground to cover. From Dr. Masters at WU:
Alex had several rather remarkable features I've never seen in a hurricane. Firstly, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Usually, we don't see the inner eyewall collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle occur until a hurricane reaches Category 3 strength. I've seen it happen on occasion to a Category 2 storm, but never a Category 1. Secondly, after Alex's inner 9-mile diameter eyewall collapsed at 10am EDT yesterday morning, an outer spiral band began to become the new eyewall. Winds in this outer spiral band/new eywall increased as the day progressed, as typically happens in an eyewall replacement cycle. However, part way through that process, Alex suddenly reversed course, and was able to build a small inner eyewall with a 12-mile diameter that was completed by landfall. I've never seen a hurricane change its mind in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle and build an inner eyewall so fast. Finally, Alex had an unusually weak winds, considering how low the pressure was. The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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JMII
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Quote:
The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.
This just goes to show that you have to look at ALL the data. Just looking at the pressure and saying "this is a Cat 2 storm" is misleading.
Personally ever since Andrew it seems the adds about 20% to the wind speed & wind field in an effort to play things on the safe side with extra warnings. In fact the winds are nearly always listed as "estimated" to reflect this. Then after all the data is collected you'll notice the storm was weaker then predicted due to this safety factor (plus the margin of error). For example southern TX was under a hurricane warning yet they never saw winds even close to 75 mph.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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doug
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Interesting comments. I think the winds were "down" relative to the central pressure due solely to the immense size of the circulation, which caused the wind field to spread out so far from the center. The pressure gradients in the interior of the storm were therefore not as extreme, as say they were in Andrew and Charlie, both small storms and the central pressure significantly lower than pressures on the periphery of the system about 100 miles or less away.
The fringes of this storm extended hundreds of miles.
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doug
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Troy C
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Daniel. I think Audrey was 1957 rather than '47. Someone else had asked wether a strong June storm would translate to an active season. 1957 wasnt that active of a season; just 8 storms, three of which were hurricanes. A Cat 1 and a pair of Cat 4's.
Take that early info with a grain of salt when comparing against todays almost up to th eminute information on storms, rather than ships reports et al.
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Ed Dunham
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Audrey was indeed in 1957 ( the year that I graduated from High School - does that make you feel young?  ) - but if the Weather Channel did indeed report that, they were wrong. Alex was the strongest June Hurricane since Hurricane Alma (110 knots - Cat III) in 1966. I'll put up a Met Blog that more fully answers the question.
Cheers,
ED
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tropicswatch
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As expected Alex did a serious number on the electrical grid in Tamaulipas. Towns without power include: Abasolo, Soto la Marina, San Fernando, Burgos, Cruillas, Güémez, Casas, Llera and Victoria. The Federal Electricity Commission says they should have power restored by 7pm.
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stormtiger
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Ed, I was 5 years old when Audrey knocked a tree down in our backyard onto our house.
I was 55 years old when Gustav did the same thing.
I was home both times.
In 2057, I'm evacuating.
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