MikeC
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6:30 PM Update 21 July 2010
There is still no low level circulation is correct, if one were to form tomorrow it would probably be right near or just south of the Caicos islands in the Caicos Bank. But the make or break will be tomorrow.
It has on more night of shear (tonight) to survive before conditions improve tomorrow. The upper level low is moving out toward the west now, away from the system.. If it makes it through relatively intact tonight then it has a real shot for development tomorrow. Track wise it's still seems south Florida/straits is the odds favorite, again deepening if it develops tomorrow or not. If it doesn't develop tomorrow, chances drop off greatly it will this side of Florida.
Thankfully, odds are that it is just a rainmaker for south Florida.
A new area (98L) Is being tracked in the Bay of Campeche, this was the wave mentioned earlier in the week in the outlook that was in the West Caribbean at the time at 20.0N 92.8W, more to come on this system soon.
Another area in the far eastern Caribbean may be worth watching next week.
7:00 AM Update 21 July 2010
The tropical wave north of Hispaniola (97L) has diminished in activity, but overall development chances are still high for the next 48 hours, at around 60%.
The good news is that it will likely remain weaker, which means a more westerly track, at least in the short term, is more likely. The most likely scenario at the moment is rain or a moderate Tropical Storm approaching south Florida Friday or Saturday, but it could take longer if the forward motion of the system remains erratic or if the center changes. If it remains weaker for much longer, the further south it would likely stay, and may miss Florida to the south (although South Florida may still get rain out of it)
Recon is scheduled to head out there this afternoon. (Update: This was canceled) It is possible a center forms further east of where the current estimate is, which would drag the time line out longer. The forecast models that take it further west (and through the Florida straits) keep the system weak.
The system's convection will probably re-fire this afternoon and have a real shot at development Tomorrow.
It's under the influence of shear around the edges of the system, and the upper level low to the northwest of the system is keeping the wave down. In short things are trending back in the right direction for less of an impact. Those in the Bahamas, Keys, Central and South Florida should continue to monitor the system, as there is potential for things to change rapidly.
7:30 PM Update 20 July 2010
The chances for the wave to develop within 48 hours have increased to 60%, and indeed, by Thursday we could have a system. The wave is currently near 19.4N 67.4W and is moving generally west northwest around 10 mph.
Those in the Bahamas will need to watch this one closely, and those in South Florida will want to monitor this system very closely if it develops. Note if it were to develop, then tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings would likely go up for South Florida as early as Thursday, earlier for parts of the Bahamas. Those in East Central Florida also will want to watch for any trends that may bring it further north.
If it were to make landfall in Florida, it would likely be Friday.
Some people are still having missing images on flhurricane.com, we have made another tweak to fix it, but it may take a few hours for it to show up.
7:00 AM Update 20 July 2010
Not much has changed since yesterday on the wave north of Puerto Rico.
It still remains under heavy influence from an upper level low and a lot of negative factors for development, which may not let up until Thursday. There is a 30% chance it could develop in the next 48 hours, but currently it doesn't look all that impressive. The center was actually relocated a little southeast of yesterday's position.
Track forecast is fairly similar, it's moving slowly generally westward and how far south it stays depends on the riding. Most likely it stays in South Florida/Florida Straits (or even further south) nd brings some rain to the area. However that may change, once it gets near the Bahamas we may have a better idea of the future of the system.
Currently it's bringing heavy rain to eastern Puerto Rico.
7:00 AM Update 19 July 2010
A new area in the Leeward islands and just north, is now being tracked as 97L. This system will have to be closely watched over next several days as it is likely to enter the Bahamas.
This wave currently has a 20% chance for development. In the near term, shear will likely keep this from developing, but once it gets closer to the Bahamas that begins to drop off, so there is some chance for slow development then. Those in Central and mostly South Florida will want to watch this system as it nears the Bahamas, but most likely it will not have much of an impact at all.
What this wave has going against it is the upper level environment, and that should keep it in check in the short term.
97L currently is rather disorganized, an upper level low near the system is enhancing convection right now. It may not make it until Thursday when conditions begin to improve. Estimate of location is 19.2N 65.0W
A rather strong ridge building to the north is likely to keep this system on a westward track, into the Bahamas and possibly south Florida later (or more likely the Florida Straits or south) in the period, most likely as a rain maker. It will have to be watched for development since systems can change rapidly over that area.
That said, If it were to develop, the most likely time would be around Thursday. This is when shear may abate some, and an upper high may get a foothold. Right now it's dealing with 20-30 knots of wind shear, and an upper level low to the northwest of the system. Ironically, if the upper level low moves far enough away to the west and dies out, it may wind up having a play in spinning up 97L.
This week will likely see an increase in overall activity from the last two weeks, especially the latter half of this week..
The other area in the West Caribbean isn't being tracked as an invest yet, but it may be worth watching if it gets to the Bay of Campeche intact. It also has a 20% chance for development.
One of flhurricane's image servers went down over the weekend, there will be a day or so where some of you may see blank images, but it should clear up by the end of the day as the dns changes propagate.
3:30 PM Update 16 July 2010
Although nothing appears to be developing over the weekend, there are a few areas being watched, but nothing being tracked as an "Invest area"
There is a low area over the northern Gulf of Mexico that has a small chance to develop, but is not likely. It's worth watching only for the proximity to land. The hurricane center gives this area about a 10% chance.
Another area in the Western Caribbean is approaching land and is running out of time to develop, the hurricane center gives this one about a 10% chance.
Another area, not mentioned by the hurricane center, in the Florida Straits. This upper level low south of Florida appears to have developed a weak mid to low level circulation near 23.5N 80.5W at 16/14Z. The upper low is moving west at about 6 knots and is situated just off the north coast of central Cuba. Westerly windshear at 25mph should curtail any further development for the next couple of days.
In short a few things to watch, but nothing to track.
Original Update
The generally slow pattern of mid-July continues. It will likely become more active in a few weeks, but there is not much going on right now.
There is one area in the Central Atlantic, currently not being tracked as an invest, that the National Hurricane Center gives a 10% chance for development. With the sal north of it, I'd give it a little less, but it is something to watch over the next few days.
Most likely nothing will come out of it.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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There is a good bit of "non-tropical" activity in the Gulf of Mexico. There continues to be a persistent long wave trough right along to just off the Eastern US which last week a large cutoff upper low was parked off the NC/SC coast. Winds aloft are somewhat light and though in the here and now this activity becoming tropical is not likely; however, if thunderstorms persists it is something that will bear watching in the days ahead.
Another area of activity is once again down near the country of Panama, however activity there is more likely in the Pacific basin.
Area of activity is eyeballing will have an opportunity for development near and along its track for the next several days; however winds aloft are not favorable from the Lesser Antilles extending west-northwest through the islands to the Bahamas.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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WesnWylie
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I agree that the area in the Gulf of Mexico could be something to watch for in
the next few days. If any development were to occur, it would likely come from
the central or southern part of the trough rather than up by Florida. Another
factor that would favor in development of this trough is the fact that it would be
right on top of the Gulf Loop Current in a day or so. Still, with that being said,
the chance for development is very low right now.
Update: Well, the has tagged another area of interest. This one is in the
Western Caribbean at 10%. We'll have to wait and see about this area since, as the
NHC has pointed out, any development would be slow to occur.
My only concerns are the following:
*The somewhat strong shear that it is in; however, the models show that weaken-
ing in the next few days.
* Regardless of development, it will likely have some land interaction in about three
days.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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doug
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What is interesting about the western Carribean is that has been on this for several days. It does bear watching.
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doug
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JoshuaK
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Even with the northerly shear apparently affecting the ULL just SE of Miami, there appears to be a pretty solid and consitent ball of convection near what appears to be the center of circulation. I'll definitly be watching this system to see if there is a transition into a LLL as it moves into the GOM. IMO, this system bears the most watching right now in the Atlantic Basin.
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WesnWylie
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The has given the area in the Gulf of Mexico, which has been talked about for the past few
days, a 10% chance of development. The trough appears to be situated in an area of lower shear
compared to other parts of the Western Atlantic basin; however, at this time, it is still not by any
means in favorable conditions. Since the trough is very elongated right now, any development
would likely not be in the near future. The official text is below.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
As far as the upper-level low near South Florida goes, the shear appears to be taking its toll on it.
Update: The NWS Office in Lake Charles, Louisiana mentions the trough in the gulf.
AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH PAST WAVES THIS YEAR...THE MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA OF CLOSING OFF A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THE GULF.
Edited by WesnWylie (Fri Jul 16 2010 09:11 PM)
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danielw
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Glad it didn't close off yet. I got 0.79" inches in about 79 minutes from the northern edge of this trough/ wave. It dropped the temp from 98 to 78 degrees in 2 hours. That was nice.
I'm seeing a lot of slow moving thunderstorms on the northern edge of the trough here in Mississippi. Many locations have received 3 to 4 inches or more, since noon today, from nearly stationary storms.
However there doesn't seem to be as much activity along the Coastal areas.
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Jasonch
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The caribbean sure is active today, two big areas of disturbed weather.
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danielw
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A
BROAD AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 52W-55W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 20 KT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF E CUBA ALONG 75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N
BETWEEN 75W-82W.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/171722.shtml?
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MikeC
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Recon is scheduled for a possible mission out to 97l on Wednesday, depending on how it looks at the time.
There is a possibility that the system stays more south and rides the northern islands, never getting in the straits, this would be bad for Haiti but would keep development chances nonexistent.
There is a lounge topic discussing long range hints, but it's still early.
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danielw
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Early morning Caribbean Discussion, excerpt.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
637 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
INDICATES THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE TO TRANSITION
TO A WEAK CONVERGENT/NEUTRAL PATTERN...WHICH IS TO LAST FOR TEN
DAYS...AND TRANSITIONING AGAIN TO A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BY THE
FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST.
DISCUSSION FROM JUL 19/0000 UTC.
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JoshuaK
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There appears to be at least one circulation center near 20.5N and 63.6W as of the 19:15 UTC satellite imagery, hard to tell if it's an Up, Mid, or Low, but it appears to have just started forming within the last few hours, at least from the loop imagery.
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WesnWylie
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97L looks fairly impressive this afternoon, except I cannot see any type
of spin within the system yet. The buoy reports within this region are falling
steadily; a 3mb drop since 10:50 a.m. CDT is noted on buoy 41043 as of
1:50 p.m. The 12Z ECWMF takes this wave to the Central Texas coast by
Saturday afternoon/evening. Although this may be a bit too quick, the track
seems possible. Definitely need to keep an eye on this one, since it could
impact more than one state on the Gulf Coast.
BTW JoshuaK, I see the circulation you noted on the above post. I think it is
either a low-level or mid-level circulation trying to develop but not an upper.
Edited by WesnWylie (Mon Jul 19 2010 08:14 PM)
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Doombot!
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On the current 97L vis floater there is a thin "wave" of clouds being ejected in the NW quadrant. What phenomenon causes this?
Time sensitive
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Its called a 'rope' cloud. Its a gust front caused by collapsing convection with a temperature differential strong enough to create condensation. Sometimes seen ahead of a cold front in winter in the subtropics.
ED
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Lamar-Plant City
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Quote:
Its called a 'rope' cloud. Its a gust front caused by collapsing convection with a temperature differential strong enough to create condensation. Sometimes seen ahead of a cold front in winter in the subtropics.
ED
Nice catch as I just was able to see it on the late satellite. Can't these also be seen on a smaller scale rushing out from under a collapsing thunderstorm? Maybe not as impressive but still the same type of effect? Being in central Fla, I see thin bands of clouds in front of and behind large T-storms. they can also be detected on Doppler radar at times. Same or different?
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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JoshuaK
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97L isn't looking too healthy early this morning, with a lot of the convection dying down. In other areas of the Atlantic, there is a cluster of convenction on the southern edge of a Tropical Wave, near 7N 35W that appears, at least to my novice eye, that has some interesting circulation and persistance about it, something in the to keep our eyes on at least. The wave itself has a nice spin to it, but is pretty much devoid of any shower activity. Finally, there is a big honking wave about to emerge off of Africa that has a huge blowup of convection as of the latest 6-hour shot from the GOES EastAtl Floater.
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Ed in Va
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FWIW, there is a lot more model support now, with a landfall somewhere between N.O. and the Panhandle. Anywehre from a moderate tropical storm to a CAT 1.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Correction: The actually takes it over the Keys and S. Florida.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Tue Jul 20 2010 12:48 PM)
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WesnWylie
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97L is actually looking quite healthy this morning in my opinion. Although it is not
as widespread as it was yesterday, the smaller area of convection looks more organized
near the center compared to earlier. I think the has it right with the 40% chance of
development for 97L. I think they will likely bump it to 50% by this afternoon as I think I see
what appears to be the low-level circulation showing up near the northeast tip of Puerto
Rico.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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The , , and HWRF models are all in agreement this AM on a track across So. FL and entering the Gulf between Punta Gorda and the Tampa Bay area and then toward the AL/FL border. takes it farther South and West more toward LA. It's early and the models will change a lot in the next several days. The system demands our attention, though.
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Michael
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