scottsvb
Weather Master
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Just a tropical wave entering central america... nothing more.
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WesnWylie
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I'm curious why the has not highlighted the area to the east-southeast of TD 4 for development. It looks like it is organizing this afternoon. It is in an area of low shear, and there does not appear do be much dry air getting in the way of it.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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danielw
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TD 4 appears to be moving just north of due west or about 285 degrees at nearly 20 mph. Based on visible satellite imagery earlier today. Possibly a 290 degree movement but that would be a stretch in my opinion.
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Jasonch
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TD is looking a little ragged don't you think. It look better earlier.
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Doombot!
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Looks like just about all the 18:00 guidance is ieft of . It should be interesting to see how left they go on this one. Anyone know if any upper level sample missions are scheduled yet?
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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It appears that hopes to schedule a mission out of St. Croix, U.S.V.I. on Tuesday evening.
"SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV
SURVEILLANCE MISSION OUT OF TISX AROUND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM FOR 04/0000Z IF IT DEVELOPS."
The system is moving so fast to the west northwest (indeed at about 285 degrees) that finding a center is indeed a challenge. At 19Z a rough centerpoint location for the cyclone was 13.0N 42.8W - that translates to a forward speed of about 25mph.
One short comment: Mike is the one that has kept the site going - the rest of us are just here to lend a hand. Now I'll put on my 'stern Mod' hat and request that we stay on topic. 
With a good likelyhood that the fast forward motion will continue for a few days, intensification is going to be difficult to achieve. That fact alone is probably going to motivate track guidance adjustments to the left.
ED
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doug
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I think the area SE of TD4 is still partially imbedded in the .
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doug
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typhoon_tip
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I am also noticing that SAL is getting precariously close by N of the circulation. If that should get ingested into the inflow it could act as an inhibitor.
I wouldn't claim to know all the physical variables these models are handling but it is interesting that the tropical models have rather recently backed off on the depthiness of this system as it trundles along. Perhaps there is some environmental concern there.
John
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Aug 02 2010 10:23 PM)
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Frank S
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I am a novice on the topic and I have a very generalized question, I am a resident of Long Island NY. What are the chances of TD4 tracking this way?
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Ed Dunham
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At 04/00Z it looks like the center is having trouble staying with its convection with quite a bit of the convection to the east of the center. Approximate position at 00Z was 13.1N 44.1W moving west (280 degrees) at 20mph. position at 00Z was 13.4N 44.1W with pressure up a little at 1007MB.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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At day 5 in their forecast, will note that their margin of error is 250 to 300 miles on average. Long Island is about 10 days away if it were to head that way. I cannot fathom what the margin of error would be at 10 days - perhaps as much as 1,000 miles in some situations.
Anyway, would suggest that you just continue to monitor the system and see how it evolves. Any 10-day forecast for any location, tropical or not, would not be a forecast - it would be wild speculation - and we would rather not get into that on this site. For this particular system there is no guarantee that it will even survive for another week. Glad to have you with us - browse through some of the posts from previous seasons and you'll get an idea of why is known as 'Hurricanes Without The Hype'.
ED
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Frank S
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Thank You, Glad to be here.
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orlandoweather
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TD 4 looks like its going to fast to get any more stonger tonight.... does anyone konw why is showing a hurricane in the gulf next week ?? is this likely?....... love this site glad to be a part of it
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Ed Dunham
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It could be the system that is highlighting in the eastern Caribbean. There is a thread on this in the Forecast Lounge.
ED
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Storm Hunter
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Yeah its should be that wave in eastern carb. and it looks like it will be trouble in about 4-5 days in central and western caribbean!
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2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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JoshuaK
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That area in the Caribbean is almost starting to look more impressive than TD#4 right now. There appears to be a CoC in which convection is firing up around, centered at about 12.5N and 66W. TD#4 is maintaining convection around it's center, but not doing much else in the way of organizing.
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Jasonch
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are the models still hinting at a possible hurricane in the gulf? Where did this come from?
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MikeC
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Quote:
are the models still hinting at a possible hurricane in the gulf? Where did this come from?
This is probably from the Eastern Caribbean Disturbance, which they now have going into the Yucatan/Belize. Either way it's just an indicator of an area to watch, but a gulf hurricane out of this is not likely to happen.
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danielw
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Excerpt from the latest Discussion:
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AND LIES TO THE
LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.2N 49.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
(24 mph...! out running the convection?) ~danielw
There is a light discussion of the models in the Colin Forecast Lounge.
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 03 2010 05:52 PM)
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MikeC
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Colin is falling apart, and the old center is racing northwest away from the convection, it will likely be downgraded later this afternoon. Once conditions around it improve it has a shot to come back, but I think it's out for a while. Which may not be until Thursday.
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