Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Pulling the plug? Appears so, may due to needing some watches/warnings up for the coast. They may put up a special advisory at 8, if not, by 11 .
Recent history has shown that they wouldn't pull the trigger JUST because it was within the timeframe where watches/warnings were needed for the coast. There has to be SOME organization... but, in this case, there is SOME organization. It's nout purely tropical, but whether they call it Subtropical Depression 5, or TD 5, doesn't really matter.
Update1: Tampa radar loop (using GRLevel3) appears to confirm the existence of a LLC, and thus a depression.
Having said that... I can find nothing to confirm that they have indeed pulled the trigger, other than the FTP site directory.
Update2: WU now shows the forecast advisory (no public advistory out yet) for Tropical Depression Five.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast from Destin Florida to Intracoastal City
Louisiana...including Lake Pontchartrain and New Orleans.
Forecast is a carbon copy of Bonnie, basically.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Aug 10 2010 11:37 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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lonelymike
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Loc: Covington County Alabama
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Mike,
Cam you elaborate a bit on the setup. I thought it was supposed to turn favorable toward the end of the month?
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MikeC
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It's just not moving, it's stuck over in the Indian Ocean, just means less of a chance for major storms until the end of the month into
September, not that there won't be any.
TD#5 is still pretty broad, with the Warnings up it may wind up further east than Louisiana, but odds still favor it. The track is pretty good I think. Intensity wise, it has a shot at nearing hurricane strength before landfall, but not a good one. Odds still favor it being much less than that. I'd pay attention to local statements if you are in the warning area, and any changes regarding it.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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It's got a long way to go before it nears hurricane strength. Looking at the IR satellite, it actually looks much less organized than it did before the pulled the trigger. The clear spin I saw on radar earlier... isn't so clear now, either. The intensity forecast looks generous right now.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
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with a moverment in the 00Z data... would expect a slight right shift in forecast... just to count for a movement of a few models... and possible TS watches to go up from Destin to PC in the 11pm adv?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
with a moverment in the 00Z data... would expect a slight right shift in forecast... just to count for a movement of a few models... and possible TS watches to go up from Destin to PC in the 11pm adv?
I haven't seen the 00Z data yet... well I did see one model that put landfall near Pensacola, which the same model did yesterday I think.Â
Okay now I just looked at the 00Z models - well, two of them at least. Assuming the others are the same, that might warrant a slight shift in the warnings, or maybe a watch to PC, but the models might also shift back to the left on the next run.
11pm forecast/advisory is now out... no changes to forecast track or warnings.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Aug 11 2010 02:35 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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00Z brings whats left over into the Panama City/Destin area in 42hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_sl8_042m.gif
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 11 2010 02:38 AM)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
but the models might also shift back to the left on the next run.
I would agree with this. At this point, these things are just too wobbly until it actually makes it to TS strength or a stronger TS. Especially until we get a clear look at the COC. Looks like a strong spiral banding feature moving up the east coast from Miami up to WPB at this time. Getting energy from the warm water as the activity calms down over the land. Tomorrow could be quite interesting in the Tampa/St Pete area for a couple of strong bands like today.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Storm Hunter
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http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=12
Low at surface is on the move it appears!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Looking at a later loop it really hasn't moved anywhere - still stuck at 26N 84W at 11/04Z. Convection has decreased quite a bit and system looks a lot more subtropical in structure at the moment.
Structure on Invest 93L hasn't changed much either - still very disorganized with convection displaced to the east of the low pressure center.
ED
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is currently flying TD 5 and I don't see much of a change in the data from yesterday.
I did see a 2500 ft flight level wind of 37 mph at 0726Z about 70 miles SSW of tampa. That would be in the NE Quadrant, where the highest winds would normally be found.
Recon is currently flying a leg to the west of the Center at 5000 ft but the winds are less than 10 mph at present.
Now for the Good News?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
CHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS
ERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS
LIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN
SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF
25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT....
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS
TIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
HAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER
THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
36-48 HOURS. THE AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND
968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT
LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TCDAT5&max=61
That was the bad news.
Pressure wind relationship formula would equal 99 mph for the 986mb and 107 mph for the HWRF 968 mb Forecast.
These are my interpolations of the pressure wind relationship with respect to the Forecast Models.
They somewhat mimic the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Scale but are purely mathematical references for the Maximum Possible Wind Speeds.~danielw
Use current and NWS forecast for planning purposes~danielw
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2010 09:33 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I agree with Rick Knabb's comments this morning on the Weather Channel. This is the 4th consecutive pathetic looking tropical cyclone. It brings to mind an important thing to consider when determining how "active" a season is - a season can have 1 Cat 5 and it can be catastrophic, or a season can have 30 pathetic systems and no damage. Which season is more "active"? The 30-storm season. Which one is more remembered? ...
In any case, looking at this morning's satellite loops... I would not be surprised, if things do not improve at least somewhat over the next few hours, if TD 5 suffers the same fate as Bonnie, and moves ashore as nothng more than a thunderstorm.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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TD5 looks really raged this morning - much worse than it did yesterday. The ULL is near the mouth of the Mississippi and the mid-level dry air is still being entrained into TD5 on its western side inhibiting convection. Lots of rain on the SE side starting to sweep up into the West FL and Tampa Bay regions extending from Ft. Myers to the mouth of Tampa Bay and well offshore. I'm still seeing a potential landfall nearer Mobile/Pensacola unless there is a more westward motion later today.
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Michael
PWS
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Over the last two hours or so, there appears to have been a significant increase in convection near the apparentl LLC. It's even relatively symmetrical now - although the LLC is on the edge of the convection I suspect. Having said that, I use the word "significant" simply because there was so little organization earlier, any increase in convection would be significant. At least to me, TD5 now looks like a TD again, though, instead of some random clouds in the middle of the Gulf.
Landfall gets tricky since it's moving at a snail's pace right now, if that fast. I'll stick to the guidance right now, with the caveat that it needs to move some west and soon, or they will have to at least consider shifting the TS warnings further east to PC. Looking at the Tampa radar (admittedly dangerous) it appears to be moving almost due north?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I can't see a definite LLC this morning either on radar (too far offshore and no convection to be detected) or on the sat loops. There is also dry air pushing in from the NE across FL which could have some impact on TD5's potential intensity/viability.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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ULL and TD 5 look like the sprockets on a bicycle with the chain around them.
Doesn't the smaller sprocket go faster???
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doug
Weather Analyst
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I agree Hugh. The water vapor indicates the dry air problem seems to be over, and the system is enveloped in moisture and is grabbing energy from the south and southwest. Look for more organization today. Steering is complicated by the ULL to its NW.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Quote:
ULL and TD 5 look like the sprockets on a bicycle with the chain around them.
Doesn't the smaller sprocket go faster???
In a two dimensional, solid state system. 
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Michael
PWS
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
ULL and TD 5 look like the sprockets on a bicycle with the chain around them.
Doesn't the smaller sprocket go faster???
In a two dimensional, solid state system.
Which exists only in Wunderland. 
There is a nice train of moisture streaming off of what is left of TD 5 right now, making Louisiana rather... wet.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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