WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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This system is pretty much like all of the other ones this season - very complex. That LLC continues to head due west early this afternoon. I have been looking over the data, and in my opinion, it looks like if TS Emily continues westward, she may miss the more intense shear. Shear is forecast to slightly increase over the next 12-24 hours ahead of her, but it she continues westward the most intense shear could very well lie to her north and east. Very interesting system. I say that the will have to shift her track westward once again with the 4:00 PM update.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
Interesting, the latest recon shows a pressure fall. 1004(ro). Emily is still fighting.
A 2mb. pressure fall?? There Emily goes again! Continuing to "muddy the picture".
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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The LLC is well west now (and SW of forecast), but some convection is firing up to the NE, while the rest is left behind (SE). Given its current position the models have shifted back west as Emily's decoupling is really screwing with possible plots. Half of them are now putting the storm over Cuba then into the GOM while the other half favor the original route between FL and the Bahamas. With all the land interaction in the way I can't see this thing staying together, but temporarily this latest burst of convection could wrap up and give the illusion of a healthy system. The outflow to the south and west have all but stopped. Emily seems to be running into more shear as the upper and mid levels winds in her (projected) path are all over the place.
"interesting" & "complex" for sure... clearly not an easy system to predict.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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doug
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Dry air has been the main culprit inhibiting the support of convection around the LLC, and that is continuing. The flare in the NE quardrant was unable to be drawn completely around the center and virtually evaporated as it reached the west side. That environment is going to change however as the environment is supporting increasing moisture on the west side which is coming up from the south. soon the circulation may be more centrally located in the moisture envelope and further development may begin. This could then allow the system to grow in size enough to be drawn to the NW. As this is taking place the system continues more westerly than forecast, and the dynamic of the ridge in the SE is changing. One comentator I read a couple of hours ago stated the ridge is expanding eastward beyond forecast limits. These two issues combined may lead to a more westerly than forecast track for a while longer. Just about everything on this system is still to be determined.
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doug
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danielw
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 19:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°49'N 70°29'W (16.8167N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSW (199°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 20kts (From the N at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the north quadrant at 20:08:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) from the flight level center
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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The LLC is still tracking nearly due West and is now well south of the 04/0000Z predicted position. Track guidance is inevitably going to have to shift westward due to this current movement. It may be a very wet weekend in store for Florida if that NW and northerly turn does materialize at some point.
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Michael
PWS
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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We can still use the rain here in Central Florida. It amazes me how these models do when they are fixed on a predicted curve. Most of the heavily curved models show that Emily SHOULD be moving solidly NW already....while it is in fact still moving westward. The curves just keep getting steeper. That LLC has shown no northward component yet (OK...maybe a slight move above 270 degrees....but not much. The next model runs will be very interesting!!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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metwannabe
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SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER..
.IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
Looke like she is just weak enough to continue westward while having just enough flare ups to maintain it's structure, which obviously would have implications to track guidance..........this would be a welcome site for the parched SE!
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I noticed on the last vortex msg that there was a greater difference in temperature inside/outside 4 deg which means it is starting to get the vacuum going
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Joeyfl
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Still no definite movement to the northwest yet and if it does not start soon within next several hours the models need to be thrown out and just look out the window, the models are preforming very poor on this system so far especially those that are relied on so much. Its interesting to note that is now taking weak low in towards southern FL. Lets see if some of the other guidance follows suite tonight.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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The first three fixes from aircraft were NW of each other (still very close to each other. The 4th one was almost due North of the first fix. I think the center has been pulled under the last burst
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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I believe we are now seeing a slight northeerly component in the latest IR AVN.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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MichaelA
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Looking at the RGB Floater Loop, it looks like the LLC is on the western edge of the convection flare up w/no northward movement evident. There might be a slight jog to the north, but such things do happen in the short term.
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Michael
PWS
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I was just going to say.....don't look at the wobbles...you beat me to it. It can be easy to interpret a wobble of the LLC as a change in movement, especially if that is what has been predicted or is expected. It can bias you a bit. I am not saying it isn't a more northerly movement, but even if, it might not be the curving. This storm is a bit stubborn in its westerly motion!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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It is impossible to track the LLC on an AVN loop, unless there is an actual eye, and there's nothing close to an eye in Emily. When I look at the AVN loop, I see the storm coming to a standstill at the end of the loop - no northerly component whatso (but not much in the way of a westerly component either).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Lamar-Plant City
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NHC 8pm advisory says that it is stationary. Just looked at the last of the daylight visible loops and it is quite hard to see where the LLC is now. Looks like the convection has caught up with it a bit. Could interaction with Hispanola be slowing down the LLC or is it disrupting it completely?
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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metwannabe
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Very similar to what happened yesterday....LLC center either reforms under the convection or it "loops"....either way looks like it is "trying" to stack. With the relocated center would appear Emily could still cross Haiti/DR where models had been predicting she would....of course she has to move to do that.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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It's probably recentering again, from the advisory:
Quote:
EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD
MOTION OF ABOUT 14 MPH...22 KM/H IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
There are some signs South Florida may get Tropical Storm watches put up tonight or tomorrow if it does move west again.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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There are many models used to forecast Emily's track in the days ahead.
I went through all but the AP suite of models and the current results are below.
From left to right:, or lower to upper.
Xtrap-Current direction of movement
BAMD-Beta and advection model (deep layer)
BAMM-Beta and advection model (medium layer)
BAMS-Beta and advection model (shallow layer)
NHC OFCI-Previous cycle OFCL, adjusted
AVNI- AVN model Interpolated
AEMN-National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Note: The BAM Suite 5 day point is just off of the Western tip of Cuba.
Beta and Advection Model (BAM)
The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) refers to a class of simple trajectory models that utilize vertically averaged horizontal winds from the to compute TC trajectories. These trajectories include a correction term to account for the impact of the earth.s rotation. The BAM is based upon the concept of a simple relationship between storm intensity/depth and steering levels. Strong cyclones typically extend through the entire depth of the troposphere and are steered by deeper layer-average winds, while weaker cyclones are steered by shallower layer-average winds. The BAM is run in three versions corresponding to the different depths used in the trajectory calculation: BAM shallow (850-700 mb), BAM medium (850-400 mb), and BAM deep (850-200 mb), known as BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively. The performance of the BAM is strongly dependent on the dynamical input from the . A divergence of the three versions of the BAM indicates varying steering flow within the parent model. Hence, spread among the three versions of the BAM also serves as a rough estimate of the vertical shear as well as the complexity and uncertainty in the track forecast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm
The current Cone of Certainty from basically splits the models. Using the models on the left or eastern side of the model swath.
Note. I'm not implying the BAM suite is correct. The suite just happens to be the best guidance so far with Emily's track. For the last several days. Please refer to Official and NWS products and Statements for protection of Life and Property~danielw
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 04 2011 01:32 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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But the reality is that is the forecast
It's an either or...she goes west until something pulls her north
or..
She intensifies enough to feel the pull to the north and moves towards Florida and then we see how far off shore she stays and if she curves out to sea and parallels the coast or slams into the Carolinas... or moves up Florida like Cleo.
It's really an either or depending on if she is finally stacked correctly and if we are tracking the low level swirl or her mid level swirl.... she's not perfectly aligned.
I can see.... her getting into the Bahamas (taking north path obviously) and suddenly finding her groove over the Gulf Stream
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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