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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91818 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:25 PM

reports i have from the Bahamas are of significant damage. 25 foot waves. numerous buildings destroyed on several of the islands. And more to come. Communications is very, very spotty so no details yet.

One of our partner teams (a humanitarian group based here in florida) is currently staging to send relief teams out as soon as its safe.

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91819 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM

In addition to the ECMWF, I see the 18Z GFDL and 18Z HWRF have both shifted westward (North Carolina / Delmarva / New Jersey). Still too far out for anything definite, though. Tomorrow we should have a much better handle on potential landfall points.

Also noting that the last two vortex recons have noted a concentric eyewall structure.


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cguhr3
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Cape May, NJ 08204
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #91822 - Wed Aug 24 2011 10:27 PM

sorry.. new to this... did not intend to create an issue.

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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
NHC's 11:00pm EDT Update [Re: cguhr3]
      #91828 - Wed Aug 24 2011 11:04 PM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 250255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...HURRICANE IRENE DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 75.4W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 952
MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE
FORCE BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91830 - Wed Aug 24 2011 11:23 PM

No longer concentric eyewalls:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 03:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 3:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°50'N 75°35'W (23.8333N 75.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 140 miles (225 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,685m (8,809ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the WNW (292°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 90kts (From the NE at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 953mb (28.14 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:41:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W/WNW (281°) from the flight level center


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4439
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91831 - Wed Aug 24 2011 11:47 PM

I turned on long term recording of the miami long range radar, you can see one of Irene's rainbands on the far east in the Bahamas now.

Long Term Long Range US Radar of Irene


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