Tropical Storm Fay Forms off Carolina Coast

The system east of the Windward islands of the Caribbean (99L) is now up to an 80% chance for development, and is very likely to become a storm or depression later today. Conditions become much less favorable this weekend, but in the meantime those in the Eastern Caribbean should keep watch. The next name on the list is Gonzalo.

The system has a relatively small size, and that seems to be working in its favor. Dry air nearby would likely weaken it otherwise. Shear later may be what weakens it this weekend, and the small size works against it there.

The other area near Cuba still has a 40% chance for development and is not currently being tracked as an Invest, but recon is tentatively scheduled to check the area out later today. Those in the northwest gulf should keep watch on this one, as we could have two active tropical systems later this week.

1105 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the status of the
reconnaissance mission originally scheduled for the system near the
Straits of Florida and to increase the formation chances for the
system in the tropical Atlantic.

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