7:45AM CDT 31 August 2021 Update
Hurricane Ida made landfall at 11:55AM in Port Fourchon, Louisana. Creating a massive surge, particularly along the islands, and western sides of lake Ponchartrain as well as other areas, a lot of wind damage, including very widespread power outages, and flooding rainfall even well inland.
Some of these areas, including metro New Orleans areas, may be without power and services for days, other areas may be out for weeks.
Julian formed and dissipated quickly.
5:45AM CDT 29 August 2021 Update
Recon just nailed a more targeted pass through Ida's eye and it appears pressure is now down to about 935/936mb with max winds of 150 MPH or so. Apparently still deepening heading into landfall. Now less than 10 MPH away from Cat 5 if this passes QC.
-Ciel
12:45AM CDT 29 August 2021 Update
Ida has become a still-intensifying Major Hurricane, the second Major of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and earliest forming second Major Hurricane in the basin since 2005.
-Ciel
4:45PM CDT 28 August 2021 Update
The most recent recon mission is finding that pressure is quite a bit lower than earlier today, but also that the hurricane is expanding quite a bit in size. This has resulted in the maximum sustained winds not being quite as high as they could otherwise be immediately around the center, but rather still dangerously strong over a larger area. This will result in a longer duration of damaging winds over a larger area, as opposed to a fast and furious blast as seen in smaller intense hurricanes that almost feel more like riding through a ginormous tornado but only if within a few tens of miles of exact landfall location. It will also unfortunately result in potential for even more significant storm surge, and dangerous storm surge covering a wider area.
It is not yet clear whether the expanding size vs intensifying inner core phase is continuing or ending. It could also alternate into landfall. Either way, the safe thing to do is to prepare for a very long duration of damaging and locally catastrophic wind and flooding rain event, and if near water - an expansive, long lasting, deadly storm surge.
One final note, there has been a trend this afternoon for Ida to be tracking to the right side of the forecast cone. This highlights the need for those within the entire cone to be prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. And always, the worst of hurricane impacts can occur well away from its center.
-Ciel
10:30AM CDT 28 August 2021 Update
Hurricane Ida is strengthening, however much of the energy this morning has gone into expanding the windfield, covering a larger area with winds (And likely more momentum for storm surge). Signs are there that intensification phase is starting now, watch aircraft recon reports to see how the structure is doing. Over the next few hours an eye is likely to become visible on satellite. There is the potential for a bit of dry air intrusion, which would be a limiting factor for intensification, however, the lack of shear and very warm waters that Ida will be traveling over will probably keep it on the intensification track, and the hurricane center still forecasts a category 4 storm to happen between the two 11AM forecast points.
The current forecast makes landfall as a category 3 or 4 hurricane in Terrebonne Parish, going between Houma and Morgan CIty, and very near or over Baton Rouge. Great amounts of onshear surge will be at and just to the right of landfall, with 10-15 feet possible in areas between Morgan City and the mouth of the Mississippi, however lower, but in some cases significant--especially closer to Ida, surge impacts could be felt all the way to the western Panhandle of Florida.. Extremely heavy rainfall, and wind as well. Power outages will likely be widespread. After landfall, remnants will likely move toward the Tennessee Valley
Today is the last full preparation day for those in the Hurricane Warning area. For the best information for your local area consult local media and officials, an the area National Weather Service office.
Original Update
Hurricane Ida is beginning to strengthen this morning, slowed by traveling over Cuba, now with 85mph winds, the intensification phase is forecast to begin later today and overnight. There is the potential for a bit of dry air intrusion, which would be a limiting factor for intensification, however, the lack of shear and very warm waters that Ida will be traveling over will probably keep it on the intensification track. So far the intensity forecast from yesterday has been correct.
The current forecast makes landfall as a category 4 hurricane in Terrebonne Parish, going between Houma and Morgan CIty, and very near or over Baton Rouge. Great amounts of onshear surge will be at and just to the right of landfall, with 10-15 feet possible in areas between Morgan City and the mouth of the Mississippi, however lower, but in some cases significant--especially closer to Ida, surge impacts could be felt all the way to the western Panhandle of Florida.. Extremely heavy rainfall, and wind as well. Power outages will likely be widespread. After landfall, remnants will likely move toward the Tennessee Valley
Today is the last full preparation day for those in the Hurricane Warning area. For the best information for your local area consult local media and officials, an the area National Weather Service office.
Tropical Depression Ten has formed from 98L in the Central Atlantic, likely no threat to land.
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