OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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What will be the dirty side of this storm? South of the eye?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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cieldumort
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What will be the dirty side of this storm? South of the eye?
South of the eye is likely to have the worst surge and possibly the worst winds. However, with the Predecessor Rain Event that has set up over Florida, it's likely that much of the state is basically in "the dirty side" with excessive rain underway and continued flooding. Additionally, dry air entrainment/extra-tropical transition will spread damaging and gusty winds over a wide area, north-south and east-west.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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18z TVCN consensus has shifted back north to Bradenton, so now the official track is SOUTH of the consensus.
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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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A long way to go, but even Orlando should be preparing.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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18z TVCN consensus has shifted back north to Bradenton, so now the official track is SOUTH of the consensus.
FOX weather calls this the "windshield wiper" effect. Official forecast lags consensus, then consensus changes... back and forth.
If all of the changes are smoothed out now since we have an increasingly organized TC with a constant feed of flight data up to landfall, track should even out in the long run, unless there is an "October surprise".
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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JMII
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What will be the dirty side of this storm? South of the eye?
Wind wise the current models put the strongest winds to the north due shear weakening the south eye wall right at or just before landfall. However that is a 50/50 guess right now as it’s a long way off time wise.
Surge wise south of landfall will be a major problem. I don’t see any reason to see this part of the forecast changing unfortunately.
Milton will likely be riding I-4 across the state and slamming a large area with hurricane force winds. Not to mention the onshore flow in NE FL on exit.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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bob3d
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[...FOX weather calls this the "windshield wiper" effect....
Looking at the latest track it appears that the storm track is staying south of Tampa Bay and not doing a windshield wiper behavior.
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bob
Time in West Central Florida: 51 years
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cieldumort
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Good summary from in the 4PM Discussion
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OrlandoDan
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Will be intersting to see how this evolves. Will Milton be stretched NE to SW with strong winds from the SW ahead of the storm because of the front?
Just my observations of past storms from living here for 34 years.
Thoughts from the experts?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
Edited by OrlandoDan (Sun Oct 06 2024 06:52 PM)
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cieldumort
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Will be intersting to see how this evolves. Will Milton be stretched NE to SW with strong winds from the SW ahead of the storm because of the front?
Just my observations of past storms from living here for 34 years.
Thoughts from the experts?
There is not yet an abundance of model consensus as to when extra-tropical transition begins, and by just how much. Hopefully all these recon missions help clear this up sooner rather than later.
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JMII
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Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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What is really crazy is this weak low ahead of Milton. It’s been raining pretty much all afternoon in most of SFL. Looks like 70% of the state is already under a flood watch. Normal the outflow high pressure of an approaching storm of this strength should have generated fairly dry conditions.
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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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With the pinhole center of Milton steadily (albeit slowly) tracking a bit south of due east this morning, Tampa Bay area may dodge a major strike once again (keeping the 100+ yr streak alive). With the east track carrying past tip of Yucatan before the forecasted turn northeast, ATM I'm thinking landfall just south of Sarasota near Siesta Key with exit into the Atlantic just south of the Cape.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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Ed Ardzinski
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best of a bad situation here in North Pinellas. Gonna be bad either way.
interaction with Yucatan could be a little wild card. But I'm getting ready to hunker down
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GeorgeN
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Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
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Quote:
With the pinhole center of Milton steadily (albeit slowly) tracking a bit south of due east this morning, Tampa Bay area may dodge a major strike once again (keeping the 100+ yr streak alive). With the east track carrying past tip of Yucatan before the forecasted turn northeast, ATM I'm thinking landfall just south of Sarasota near Siesta Key with exit into the Atlantic just south of the Cape.
I'm sorry, but this myth just offends me. I have lived in North Tampa since the mid 70's and there were plenty of storms that hit us. Yeah, maybe they didn't completely wipe out the city (as some ghouls seem to want), but there has been flooding, major damage, power outages and loss of life. Anyone who supports this 100 year myth is usually a real estate speculator. If sitting in the dark listening to tree parts hammer your storm shutters all night is "dodging" the storm, then I'm out.
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Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island
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bob3d
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As of the 11 AM EDT update, it appears that the west coast Florida impact has moved ever so slightly north of where it was during the last update. It looks like it now has a direct path into Tampa Bay. I realize Milton is still 2 and a half days out, so pinpointing a landfall with any accuracy is somewhat silly. We will have to wait and see.
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bob
Time in West Central Florida: 51 years
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cieldumort
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Re. Tampa, there are a lot of members of our reliable models that take the center of Milton directly over or north of Tampa.
Milton keeps tracking a bit to the south of forecast, but this can also work against a south-of-Tampa ultimate landfall, as well. The hurricane could stay stronger for longer and consequently respond better to tugs and shoves that would send it further north (e.g., Tampa or north of there). This might be counterintuitive by just looking at satellite loops, but the science on this potential outcome is sound and very much in the realm of possibilities.
A strike south of Tampa might "just" be a nightmare. A strike directly over or a bit north of Tampa could be unspeakable. The potential damage could rival that of the most infamous landfalling hurricanes.
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JMII
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Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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From 9AM to 11AM motion was nearly due E which was slightly N of forecast. Milton is already getting close to Cat 5 levels. Getting vibes from this with the tiny eye and rapid intensification. So far is the wind field reminds small, hurricane force out to 30 miles and tropical storm out 80 miles from the center, can only hope it stays this way unlike which expanded and had a 60 mile wide eye at landfall that created tons of wind damage from N Lake Okeechobee all the way thru Miami.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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IsoFlame
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I'm sorry, but this myth just offends me. I have lived in North Tampa since the mid 70's and there were plenty of storms that hit us. Yeah, maybe they didn't completely wipe out the city (as some ghouls seem to want), but there has been flooding, major damage, power outages and loss of life. Anyone who supports this 100 year myth is usually a real estate speculator. If sitting in the dark listening to tree parts hammer your storm shutters all night is "dodging" the storm, then I'm out.
If you are 60+ years old, from the 4th generation of a family that settled in the area shortly after the Civil War and have lived in central Florida (especially on either coast) all your life, I don't think you have truly weathered a direct (within 25 degrees of perpendicular) a close proximity (within 25 miles) hit from a Major Cat 4/5 hurricane plowing through the central peninsula. My 92-yr old dad who lived in the dead center of central Florida, his brother who lived in the Shores (east Pinellas/St Pete), and I living in Daytona Beach shores have not had the rarified experience, though Floyd, Mathew and Dorian had the potential to be worse-case scenarios where I live.
I'm not saying that a somewhat "weaker" cat 3 hurricane hitting at a greater angel has not or will not been destructive- it will be. Coastal residents in Florida live on a sandbar with geography subject to change.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Mon Oct 07 2024 02:29 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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From 9AM to 11AM motion was nearly due E which was slightly N of forecast. Milton is already getting close to Cat 5 levels. Getting vibes from this with the tiny eye and rapid intensification. So far is the wind field reminds small, hurricane force out to 30 miles and tropical storm out 80 miles from the center, can only hope it stays this way unlike which expanded and had a 60 mile wide eye at landfall that created tons of wind damage from N Lake Okeechobee all the way thru Miami.
OMG... Last advisory blew through 5 threshold: 175 mph sustained, central pressure 911 mb.
Noticed a more easterly track with a recent jog ENE. Here on the east coast 35 miles north of the Cape, my preperations are for 80 mph sustained, gusts approaching 100 mph and an additional 5-8" of rain. Godspeed for everyone on the west Florida coast in ground zero or within 50 miles south of landfall.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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JMII
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Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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Helpful site: https://cera.coastalrisk.live/
Shows predicted surge based on forecast track and intensity. I looked back at the data for Helene in Ft Myers and the prediction was very close with what the NOAA tide station reported. Places in Sarasota, Bradenton and East Tampa show 10 feet of water above mean sea level.
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