GeorgeN
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
|
|
I've been watching the interaction with the yucatan peninsula and noticed that the UKMET has been holding it's southerly prediction since the beginning. Also noticed this with and Ian. Seems like a lot of the models did not predict a close encounter with land this early. I know the has issues with landmasses ;which probabaly makes predictions in the Gulf especially difficult. At this point, I wish there were chart plots that showed all the models including the Euro, but you take what you get.
My question is since the Euro and UKMET models run twice per day; are the plot changes the result of extrapolation? Is there a human factor where they correct the course based on current trajectory, and then it gets trued up at the next model run? Seems like the (which runs 4 times a day) is digesting more timely data but not able to look at the big picture. This would explain why it has issues with land masses and it tends to bounce around. The recent models are trending way north, and pulling the median path with it. I'm hoping a greater alignment of the models once the storm is back in open water.
Also of note is the shear in the Gulf. Is that what the UKMET is seeing as a strong force keeping the storm south?
Tropical Shear Image
--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island
Edited by GeorgeN (Mon Oct 07 2024 04:22 PM)
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2502
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Quote:
I've been watching the interaction with the yucatan peninsula and noticed that the UKMET has been holding it's southerly prediction since the beginning. Also noticed this with and Ian. Seems like a lot of the models did not predict a close encounter with land this early. I know the has issues with landmasses ;which probabaly makes predictions in the Gulf especially difficult. At this point, I wish there were chart plots that showed all the models including the Euro, but you take what you get.
My question is since the Euro and UKMET models run twice per day; are the plot changes the result of extrapolation? Is there a human factor where they correct the course based on current trajectory, and then it gets trued up at the next model run? Seems like the (which runs 4 times a day) is digesting more timely data but not able to look at the big picture. This would explain why it has issues with land masses and it tends to bounce around. The recent models are trending way north, and pulling the median path with it. I'm hoping a greater alignment of the models once the storm is back in open water.
EURO runs four times a day. UKMET is generally not a preferred Global as far as TCs in the western Atlantic basin are concerned. It tends to perform very poorly relative to the others. In our part of the world at least, the handles the big picture far better than UKMET.
Plot changes are not a result of extrapolation. Plot changes are a result of highly sophisticated weather modeling interpreted by hurricane experts at and, in other basins, other agencies.
Milton is not over land whatsoever, and is very unlikely to track over the Yucatan.
Ciel
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2502
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
The blowup of convection to Milton's northeast may be helping tug Milton a touch to the left of the most recently tweaked center line. This is just something to keep an eye on, and it is worth reiterating that small changes in track will likely continue.
In general, it is still expected that Milton will roughly follow 's Cone into landfall.
|
GeorgeN
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 39
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
|
|
I'm confused then, as all the info I've found shows the runs twice per day, as does the UKMET. While the UKMET isn't designed for our area, it has been accurate enough to be included in the predictions and has been mentioned several times on this forum for accuracy in the Gulf. I wasn't accurate about landfall, what I meant is the has been stated as a model that is better for open ocean rather than areas bordered by land. It is a better flat surface model than a topology one.
--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2502
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Quote:
I'm confused then, as all the info I've found shows the runs twice per day, as does the UKMET. While the UKMET isn't designed for our area, it has been accurate enough to be included in the predictions and has been mentioned several times on this forum for accuracy in the Gulf. I wasn't accurate about landfall, what I meant is the has been stated as a model that is better for open ocean rather than areas bordered by land. It is a better flat surface model than a topology one.
UKMET has its utility and can perform better in some scenarios. handles North America and the Atlantic very well. If you'd like, start a new forum and ask/tell as to which model is best or DM. Thanks.
|
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 86
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
|
|
all the info I've found shows the runs twice per day.
It is run 4 times a day. @ 0Z and 12Z for 240hrs and @ 6z and 18Z for 90hrs.
|
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 86
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
|
|
Recon at 22:19Z had a NE eyewall wind at 161kt - 185mph and the lowest 10m average was 174kt - 200mph! And the center pressure a few minutes later was 899MB!!!!! 
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
The was a northern outlier showing landfall north of Tampa Bay. The 18Z run now has it in the Pinellas County area of Tampa Bay, so the models are trending to coalesce on the projected track. This has the potential to be catastrophic for the Bay Area.
--------------------
Michael
PWS
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2502
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Quote:
Recon at 22:19Z had a NE eyewall wind at 161kt - 185mph and the lowest 10m average was 174kt - 200mph! And the center pressure a few minutes later was 899MB!!!!!
My application of the technique has it T8 now (Generally 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb in the Atlantic). Milton appears to be punching the outermost limits of theoretical Maximum Potential Intensity.
|
Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 239
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Recon at 22:19Z had a NE eyewall wind at 161kt - 185mph and the lowest 10m average was 174kt - 200mph! And the center pressure a few minutes later was 899MB!!!!!
My application of the technique has it T8 now (Generally 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb in the Atlantic). Milton appears to be punching the outermost limits of theoretical Maximum Potential Intensity.
196 is past isn't it? I thought 190-200 was IT. The barometer is going to keep plummeting though...
The possible storm surge from Milton is unthinkable really. 30 feet like Gulfport in ? Higher?
Edited out political references
- Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 07 2024 09:20 PM)
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2502
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Above: Today's 18Z ensemble member tracks and intensities
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2502
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Above: Today's 18Z Ensemble member tracks and max sustained wind speed ranges
|
Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 239
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
|
I'm going with CHC, yet I hope to God this doesn't hit Tampa full-on. Again, as I say this every year, it feels terrible wishing bad upon others in order to wish better upon somewhere else, but a direct hit on Tampa with 200MPH winds...
Ummm anybody remember a place called Galveston, Texas? Sept 8, 1900?
Tampa Bay topographic map, elevation, terrain
Average elevation 36 Feet
--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
|
JMII
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 546
Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
|
|
Almost all the models show a weakening before landfall but it could be too little and too late. These same models were under estimating Milton’s current condition but he is doing things that are off the charts in terms of historical storms. The water vapor loop shows the dry air and strong a W to E jet that he is going to encounter while pushing NE. Gotta pray that has the desired effect.
A Tampa hit followed by an I-4 run across the state at even Cat 2 / 3 levels would bring epic levels of damage to a large population. Most inland home owners don’t have panels and are surrounded by large trees. Both and Irma wrecked havoc on southern center of the state (Arcadia / Sebring) for these same reasons. But those ares have very sparse populations in comparison to Orlando 
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
Rhino7170
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 9
|
|
Quote:
I'm going with CHC, yet I hope to God this doesn't hit Tampa full-on. Again, as I say this every year, it feels terrible wishing bad upon others in order to wish better upon somewhere else, but a direct hit on Tampa with 200MPH winds...
Ummm anybody remember a place called Galveston, Texas? Sept 8, 1900?
Tampa Bay topographic map, elevation, terrain
Average elevation 36 Feet
It's not projected to hit anywhere near 200 mph. I don't understand what you are looking at to come up with that, but I guess you never know. There is nothing forecasting that at all though.
Edited by Rhino7170 (Tue Oct 08 2024 12:27 AM)
|
TXEB
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
|
|
When citing historical facts as references, let’s at least try to get them correct:
Quote:
The possible storm surge from Milton is unthinkable really. 30 feet like Gulfport in ? Higher?
The peak storm surge with was “was as high as 12-14 feet in Bayou La Batre, AL and likely close to 20 feet along the Mississippi-Alabama border”. The peak surge forecast for Milton is 10-15 feet, not 30 feet.
Quote:
but a direct hit on Tampa with 200MPH winds...
Ummm anybody remember a place called Galveston, Texas? Sept 8, 1900?
The winds of Milton near landfall are forecast to be ~125 mph, not 200 mph. The winds of the 1900 Galveston hurricane were estimated to be between 130-140 mph, not 200 mph.
|
JMII
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 546
Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
|
|
Of note in the discussion is the wind field is forecast to double in size. It’s currently 30 miles of hurricane force and 105 of TS, so this gives us 60 miles of hurricane and 210 of TS. They are calling for Cat 3 at landfall and Cat 1 on the east coast exit near Titusville.
|
IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 380
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
|
|
Recent model clustering landfall a bit south of the Bay area and the 8am advisory that nudged Milton on a track a little south of I-4, with exit near or just south of the Cape, buoys previous hopeful thought that the worst of Milton's expanding northern eye wall will stay just south of Daytona Beach, similar to Mathew's passage 35 miles offshore in 2016.
Still, with the wind field expanding, a weakened Milton, when back over water, will start pulling energy from the warm (82F) Atlantic on Thursday. Now instead of 90 mph gusts over 100 mph, preparing for sustained 65-70 mph, gusts to 85 mph. This is just below the threshold that Matthew established (80/95) for me to panel up my 2-story/19 window house. Will wait for next advisory and better model consensus to make this decision...
--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Oct 08 2024 08:11 AM)
|
TXEB
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
|
|
While I have tremendous faith and confidence in the , both the track Milton takes into FL’s west coast and where it crosses the east coast are dependent on two course changes. The first is a change in course toward the NE as Milton approaches the Gulf coast. The second is a slight change more towards the east as it makes landfall. The timing and extent of those moves can significantly affect where Milton makes landfall and where it exits on the Atlantic side.
In 2005 was supposed to track right over our little neighborhood 12 miles inland 72 hours before landfall. While I was stuck in the mass exodus from Houston, the forecast started shifting east ~36 hrs before landfall. It ended up coming ashore ~100 miles east of us.
|
JMII
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 546
Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
|
|
Always tough to judge small course changes vs long terms trends. For example so far today Milton is riding the N edge of forecast. So is he already feeling the upper level tug that will pull him NE? Or this just a random wobble? The eye has clouded up making the center more difficult to judge vs that clear pin hole we had yesterday.
As noted above by @TXEB Milton has two more turns to make, a NNE motion from Mexico into the gulf, then a more ENE turn into Tampa right before or at landfall.
I remember when Irma kept trending W which completed changed landfall. She was still within the cone but went from an east coast to a west coast storm: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind The error can be seen in advisory #34 which shows a hit on Miami, then on advisory #40 the hit on Naples becomes apparent, that is a 100 mile difference.
Intensity models show Milton should weaken from here on out, albeit slowly at first. There is a chance of slight strengthening or at least steady state for the next 36 hours.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
