IsoFlame
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Always tough to judge small course changes vs long terms trends. For example so far today Milton is riding the N edge of forecast. So is he already feeling the upper level tug that will pull him NE? Or this just a random wobble? The eye has clouded up making the center more difficult to judge vs that clear pin hole we had yesterday.
So is he already feeling the upper level tug that will pull him NE?
I think the tug NE is evident in the elongated (versus previously concentric) structure: GOES East GOMEX view
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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Bloodstar
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While I have tremendous faith and confidence in the , both the track Milton takes into FL’s west coast and where it crosses the east coast are dependent on two course changes. The first is a change in course toward the NE as Milton approaches the Gulf coast. The second is a slight change more towards the east as it makes landfall. The timing and extent of those moves can significantly affect where Milton makes landfall and where it exits on the Atlantic side.
In 2005 was supposed to track right over our little neighborhood 12 miles inland 72 hours before landfall. While I was stuck in the mass exodus from Houston, the forecast started shifting east ~36 hrs before landfall. It ended up coming ashore ~100 miles east of us.
Just a quick add on, The ensemble runs show a variance of potential tracks, The spread of the ensemble can give a reasonable sense of the most likely range of paths. In this case the spread matches the s uncertainty spread.
- Milton storm center could hit anywhere from 50 miles north of Tampa, to 50 miles south of Tampa.
- Milton is forecast to have an expanded wind-field, so hurricane force winds should be expected all along the coast.
- All these small variations in track make a huge difference for Tampa Bay, a direct strike, versus a track south of the bay, or a strike north of the bay, each will have dramatically different impacts for the area.
There's no need to hype the intensity of the storm, a landfalling Cat 3 or 4 into western Florida is going to be bad enough!
Everyone be safe.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Noting some erosion of the deep convection on the north side. It would be great if the shear that awaits Milton as it gains latitude could weaken the hurricane several categories as quickly as yesterday's ideal conditions led to phenomenal rapid strengthening.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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TXEB
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Noting some erosion of the deep convection on the north side. It would be great if the shear that awaits Milton as it gains latitude could weaken the hurricane several categories as quickly as yesterday's ideal conditions led to phenomenal rapid strengthening.
Milton should be crossing the very warm loop current in the Gulf later today. That should fuel the beast.
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Lautermilch
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I have a question. I live in Sebring and have to make a decision on my options so at what update should I expect the projected track to be 'final' as can be? I know this one right now looks 50 miles north or south of Tampa and that is a huge margin. I live in Sebring so decide I must.
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Ed Ardzinski
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Milton should be crossing the very warm loop current in the Gulf later today. That should fuel the beast.
takes more that warm water, else we'd have seen more storms the last 2 years in the GOM. that's some significant looking shear...got to grab on to something to hope for.
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TXEB
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I live in Sebring and have to make a decision on my options so at what update should I expect the projected track to be 'final' as can be? I know this one right now looks 50 miles north or south of Tampa and that is a huge margin.
We stayed in place for Beryl, which hit us with strong Cat 1 winds, from which we had no damage of any kind. Previously we evacuated for Ike, again without any damage. But from both of those let me share a few things learned. Even if you’re secure at the immediate threat from wind and water, you need to be prepared for living in what conditions will be after the storm passes. That includes mobility (roads may be blocked or impassible for several days), power (Ike killed ours for 10 days, Beryl for 2.5), and once able to travel access to fuel and food. When there’s no power in the area broadly stores will be closed meaning no purchases. So do consider what it may be like after the storm has passed, and what you would need access to.
As far as track and cone of uncertainty, it’s a statistical probability that accounts for 2/3rds of storm tracks over the previous five years. You can see the actual numbers and get a good explanation here.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
The distances cited are from the forecast track, so plus/minus.
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Kraig
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Milton should be crossing the very warm loop current in the Gulf later today. That should fuel the beast.
Keep in mind that the water in the Bay of Campeche was THE warmest water in the GOM. It hadn't been mined by a storm since early in the season. However, the eastern GOM has been mined by several storms especially Helene just a week or so ago. So that water is warm but nowhere near as hot as what Milton was over the last 2 days!
Also, from the 11am Discussion : "The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, 's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast." 60-70 miles at 1.5-2 days is pretty good!
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Owlguin
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Is there a good map to compare the projected path with actual? The appearance is it is tracking somewhat South of what is projected and wobbling East. I know we should pay more attention to a longer term path through.
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JMII
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I think the tug NE is evident in the elongated (versus previously concentric) structure:
Agree he is looking a little squished. Outflow to the NW is being eroded. However at the same time he seems to have consolidated, the eye has cleared again and the core is strong and tight.
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I live in Sebring so decide I must.
Sebring is likely to see Cat 1 level winds. My parents lived in Sebring and stayed for and Irma. Problem with that area is lots of old growth big trees so expect roads being blocked and extensive power outages. Since its not a major population center nor close to any major interstates its not a priority for relief efforts. After Irma my parents didn't have power for nearly 4 weeks down in Lake Placid. You might be reasonably safe depending on tree situation and home construction but the aftermath will be miserable with no power, water or food. On the current forecast track you'll be 65 miles south of a Cat 2. I would secure your property now and if leaving maybe wait until tomorrow AM. TS winds should start arriving Weds PM, so you want to be clear of the area by then to avoid driving in hazardous conditions.
Edited by JMII (Tue Oct 08 2024 01:32 PM)
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cieldumort
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Regarding SSTs Helene had only minimal "cooling," in air quotes, on the eastern Gulf, and virtually none right along the west coast of Florida. There is a (relatively-speaking) cool wake, but a lot of it has recovered.
SSTs this year have been record high. What could have been an impactful wake in some seasons, is scarcely so now. One way of visualizing this is with Kerry Emanuel's MPI, which is shown below with Milton's current forecast track overlaid. There is enough MPI to easily support Category 4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson up through landfall:
Image cr: CIMSS
Basin-wide MPI:
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GeorgeN
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Quote:
Quote:
Milton should be crossing the very warm loop current in the Gulf later today. That should fuel the beast.
takes more that warm water, else we'd have seen more storms the last 2 years in the GOM. that's some significant looking shear...got to grab on to something to hope for.
Correct on that shear. It's been pushing it south and forcing some interaction with the Yucatan. I suspect all that wobbling has been playing heck with models, especially the .
Wobble tracker
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Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island
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Bloodstar
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Of note, Recon is once again reporting falling pressures, back down to 924mb. I'm thinking the interaction with the Yucatan disrupted the circulation along with an . Just be safe and stay alert.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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cieldumort
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A lot of 18Z guidance is shifting a bit south.
There has been a trend for Milton all along to veer south-of-forecast with intensification phases. The hurricane is very likely now Cat 5 again (awaiting new recon mission to confirm, but easily 160+ MPH based on satellite).
A track further south overall could
Keep it over the Loop Current for longer (Higher octane fuel)
Prevent it from interacting with as much detrimental shear, perhaps by a lot
Have significant implications for which locations get the very worst of the worst
Raise Saffir-Simpson intensity into landfall (Cat 4 and 5 could both be on the table)
Delay extra-tropical transition, resulting in more of a classic hurricane for longer (vs "half-a-cane" look as seen on some models)
There is a system off to Milton's north to northeast ~ frontal with frontal lows ~ this/these could still create some lowering of pressures to Milton's north and northeast, drawing Milton to the north, but more and more so today, that area of disturbed weather is attempting to congeal into a sub-tropical storm off the east coast of Florida (heading east), and this prior source of pull to the north may be easing.
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MikeC
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I want to caution about buying into the 18Z south shift, at least until more information is available, since the track is currently matching the HAFS models dead on, and it still winds up in St. Pete. Needs a bit more time to verify.
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JMII
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It has trended SE of target since the 11AM update, however from 2AM to 11AM it was slight NW of the center line. From its 8AM position its gone nearly due E for 65-70 miles. As mentioned by @cieldumort during the weakening phase it drifted N while strengthening it went S which is kind of the opposite of normal hurricane motion. Currently its off target by just 20 miles, so in the end maybe all the wobbles even out. Currently landfall is sometime late Weds PM or early Thurs AM so we've got another 36 hours to go.
https://zoom.earth/storms/milton-2024/ has become my new favorite site for tracking.
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TheQueensBarge
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One thing I never see mentioned is that if electric power is lost sewage lift pumps go down. Therefore nothing flushes. Something to think about when you're considering whether or not to evacuate.
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kellyr
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I know this is probably a silly question- when a storm enters from the east, the area with the most intensity is considered to be the right side. When a storm is predicted to make landfall from the west, does the same still ring true- that the right side will have the most intensity? Or is it the left?
My dad is in Cape Coral and I am highly concerned for him.
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cieldumort
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I know this is probably a silly question- when a storm enters from the east, the area with the most intensity is considered to be the right side. When a storm is predicted to make landfall from the west, does the same still ring true- that the right side will have the most intensity? Or is it the left?
My dad is in Cape Coral and I am highly concerned for him.
Right-front quadrant will be the front and right of the cyclone's direction, no matter what direction it comes from. So, coming from the west, south of the center would have highest surge and wind, usually.
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cieldumort
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Recon is coming in very hot
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