vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Dear friends
Two questions, if I may:
1) how likely is it that the current track will not turn back north or, better, will even move south?
2) What does the Gale Low mean for this hurricane?
thank you!
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole, Helene, Milton
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Lubbock, TX/St Pete, FL
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Folks, I would caution focusing on jogs. He's going to wobble. Look for trends.
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Matt
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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Quote:
My dad is in Cape Coral and I am highly concerned for him.
Cape Coral could flood again like Ian. I'm watching it very closely as I have a property I am considering buying over there. If this S trend continues the wind speed for that area increases. Its currently high end TS, low end Cat 1 so nothing too bad as long as the structure is secure.
Quote:
1) how likely is it that the current track will not turn back north or, better, will even move south?
2) What does the Gale Low mean for this hurricane?
thank you!
1) looking less and less likely, however the cone still covers are large area, approximately 130 miles as the crow flies from the northern edge (Spring Hill) to the southern end (Cape Coral). But the models have been trending south as Milton continues to move further E without out getting far enough N. In fact as this point none of the main models show landfall N of Tampa Bay. And "better" is relative... I want this thing as far N as possible.
2) not much other then steering current effect both, so where one goes the other will follow.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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TXEB
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
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This. Would have been easy to miss - a 4:30 PM CDT Update:
“Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON...
Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has
fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft
observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 165 mph (270 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.72 INCHES”
Edited by TXEB (Tue Oct 08 2024 07:23 PM)
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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11PM update has shifted landfall south of Sarasota. A few more corrections like this and we will be talking about Port Charlotte being in the core. The models are clustered between Venice and Ft Myers now 
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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I found this to be interesting in the 11 pm ET discussion:
"In addition, a large region of
tropical storm and hurricane force winds could occur on the
northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting
with a frontal boundary and beginning transition."
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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In addition to more standard and traditional tropical cyclone models, for the next 24-48 hours or so, I'm going to share some others that I typically would not. The reason I am including these others falls into one or both of two categories:
1. It is expected that Milton will begin extra-tropical transition to a lesser or greater extent roughly about the time it is making landfall (just before, during, or just after), and as such, I will be sharing non-tropical models that are often better at handling sub-tropical systems.
2. Models that look to have a better initial grasp on Milton's present intensity and/or location and/or steering. These may include select ensemble members.
These models should be considered with the caveat that they are neither designed for TCs and/or the operational runs, but may have increasing utility going forward. Also, where Globals are concerned (e.g. ), we can ignore their forecast minimum pressure. Globals almost always underbid MSLP.
I will flag these posts with the header NON-STANDARD MODELS
NON-STANDARD MODELS
GFS Member #1 from 09/0z run valid Thursday morning (10th) at 4AM EDT (predawn)
GFS Member #3 from 09/0z run valid Wednesday evening 7PM EDT
GFS Member # 8 from 09/0z run valid Thursday the10th at 1AM EDT (middle of the night)
GFS Member #28 from 09/0z run valid Wednesday night 10PM EDT
NAM3K (Convection Allowing Model) from 09/0z run valid Thursday the 10th at 4AM EDT (predawn)
RRFSA (Convection Allowing Model) from 09/0z run valid Thursday the 10th at 12AM EDT (midnight tomorrow night)
Edit: Several models now show no complete transition to extra-tropical ("Post-Tropical" as it is now called with regard to TCs), until after Milton has crossed the state and entered the W Atlantic, and indeed with the 1AM CDT Advisory, the official forecast now calls for Milton to remain a Tropical Cyclone well into the Atlantic. This may limit the usefulness of the two Convection Allowing Models shared above.
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Oct 09 2024 01:57 AM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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A similar statement appears in the 0400 CDT update:
"Additionally, a large region of tropical
storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back
side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal
boundary and beginning transition."
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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From the discussion:
The track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.
The models have been pointing S, the storms center has been E of forecast for awhile and is still E this AM. Granted the error is small, like 20 miles but it keeps adding up. Currently models have landfall between Sarasota and Punta Gorda with an exit from Coco Beach to Ft Pierce.
Last few frames show the eye filling in, hopefully this is the start of the weakening phase. Hard to believe we still have a Cat 5 out there with less then 24 hours to go.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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6z is into bradenton, out by cape Canaveral
6z HAFS A Sarasota to Melbourne
6z HAFS-B Bradenton to Melbourne
6z HMON Bradenton to Tisuville
6z HWRF Tampa bay to New Smyrna Beach
0z Euro Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral
Milton will start to unravel and spread that cat 5 energy outward, big surge from eye to the south on landfall, rain heavy on north side over Florida, Tornado threat to the south, winds for everyone near the center, and more surge on the Atlantic side eye and north.
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bob3d
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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6z HMON Bradenton to Titusville
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Ed Ardzinski
Registered User
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Quote:
6z HMON Bradenton to Titusville
12 Z about the same
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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A close-up of surface wind speed and direction forecast with the 06Z would mean the greatest threat of very damaging to catastrophic surge most likely sets up between Naples and Sarasota, should this forecast hold exactly as advertised. Slight adjustments or even a wobble to the left could easily put Bradenton to Tampa back in play for the worst.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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SW eyewall is falling apart based on radar. NW quad weakening on IR satellite. Still a very strong and powerful core. Overall small field: hurricane force winds out 30-40, extreme Cat 4 winds in the Eastern eyewall, TS force winds out 100 miles again in all directions but stronger on the E side.
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Kraig
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Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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Over the last 2 hours, if you look at the center fixes the movement had been consistent at 35 degrees, confirmed by the 11am advisory. If you look at the last center determined by two aircraft passes at roughly 25.72 -84.43, Milton has taken a definite western shift/wobble or an average 30 degree track over the last 2 hours. This -5 degree shift if maintained and not a wobble would change landfall into Tampa Bay. This is the crazy task that the is dealing with when this angle of approach and the angle of the shoreline are working against each other when looking for the landfall location!
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Kraig
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Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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Quote:
SW eyewall is falling apart based on radar. NW quad weakening on IR satellite. .
I'm not disagreeing as the 11am discussion said the southern eyewall wasn't intact, but the storm is at the very edge of the capabilities of the radar so the west side may not be showing up well yet.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 546
Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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Quote:
This is the crazy task that the is dealing with when this angle of approach and the angle of the shoreline are working against each other when looking for the landfall location!
Same thing happened in . Move the center a few degrees and landfall changes by 40 miles. With a small but very intense storm this dramatically effects things on a local city-by-city level. Andrew missed me by 60 miles and the difference was nearly 100 mph worth of wind (70 vs 165) ...crazy.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Reminder of a trend we have noticed with Milton to track right-of-line during intensification phases, and then back to the left, or even left-of-forecast, during weakening phases. The last recon mission shows a more pronounced bend to the left again. Something to keep an eye out for.
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bob3d
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Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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Something to keep an eye out for
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Ed Ardzinski
Registered User
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SF WMD upgraded the radar - the track is back albeit different format
Looks like some of the worst weather is 0nshore now and headed this way (Norther Pinellas)
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