cieldumort
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Today's 12Z Hi-Res Surface wind direction and speed valid for 11PM EDT tonight.
This model's 12Z run advertises that the greatest threat for very dangerous to catastrophic storm surge could set up between Naples and Tampa Bay. Maximum sustained surface winds indicated by this model are likely understated by one or two categories as it is a global and not a hurricane model. Based on this model run, even a very slight track or wobble to the left of its guidance could put all of the Tampa region back at risk for the greatest surge threat.
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TXEB
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The track over the last ~6 hrs has averaged ~030 deg. The forecast track is headed about 060 deg from the current position @18:00 Z. Unless Milton makes a significant shift in its course now, the forecast track is going to have to shift north by a good bit, like right into Tampa Bay, or even north.
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JMII
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A few of the recon fixes were just N of the official forecast track... see attached image
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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bob3d
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A few of the recon fixes were just N of the official forecast track... see attached image
Attached image?
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JMII
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Attached image?
Also available here: https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/storms/AL142024_sat2.png not sure if this link is dynamic so it might change.
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cieldumort
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NON-STANDARD MODEL
Today's 18Z Convection Allowing Model HRRR which can be useful for hybridizing TCs is showing the center going right into Tampa Bay about 10-11PM EDT tonight.
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JMII
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Could be a wobble and we know a turn ENE is coming but he needs to make a hard right to stay on the cone. The 5PM update should provide some good data.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
Edited by JMII (Wed Oct 09 2024 04:16 PM)
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TXEB
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Could be a wobble and we know a turn ENE is coming but he needs to make a hard right to stay on the cone.
It appears to be tracking to follow the northern cone edge. That would take it over St. Pete and Tampa Bay, with the big surge from Sarasota to Port Charlotte.
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Kraig
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NON-STANDARD MODEL
Today's 18Z Convection Allowing Model HRRR which can be useful for hybridizing TCs is showing the center going right into Tampa Bay about 10-11PM EDT tonight.
The 4pm location from was 64 miles from Egmont Key (entrance to Tampa Bay) at a 43 degree bearing. At 17mph, Milton would be over at ~8pm, so the HRRR is way too slow. Also, the 4pm bearing for Milton was 35 degrees which will take him to St Pete Beach/Treasure Island if he maintains same course.
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cieldumort
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Quote:
Quote:
NON-STANDARD MODEL
Today's 18Z Convection Allowing Model HRRR which can be useful for hybridizing TCs is showing the center going right into Tampa Bay about 10-11PM EDT tonight.
The 4pm location from was 64 miles from Egmont Key (entrance to Tampa Bay) at a 43 degree bearing. At 17mph, Milton would be over at ~8pm, so the HRRR is way too slow. Also, the 4pm bearing for Milton was 35 degrees which will take him to St Pete Beach/Treasure Island if he maintains same course.
There is an expected slowing down of Milton's forward speed which is already being seen in most recent recon penetrations and radar images. Whether or not that continues is TBD, but it is about what is anticipated by many models as Milton begins or preps for a turn more to the east.
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JMII
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5PM update has Bradenton as landfall location, Milton's center is about 60 miles away from there. St Pete to Sarasota still in the cone of error.
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TXEB
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There is an expected slowing down of Milton's forward speed which is already being seen in most recent recon penetrations and radar images. Whether or not that continues is TBD, but it is about what is anticipated by many models as Milton begins or preps for a turn more to the east.
At 21:20 UTC, radar appears to show an expanded eye redeveloping east and even slightly south of the previous position. The whole system looks to have wobbled / shifted towards Sarasota. What Milton is giving up in intensity and forward speed it is making up for in size.
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Rhino7170
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There is an expected slowing down of Milton's forward speed which is already being seen in most recent recon penetrations and radar images. Whether or not that continues is TBD, but it is about what is anticipated by many models as Milton begins or preps for a turn more to the east.
At 21:20 UTC, radar appears to show an expanded eye redeveloping east and even slightly south of the previous position. The whole system looks to have wobbled / shifted towards Sarasota. What Milton is giving up in intensity and forward speed it is making up for in size.
Where are you seing this wobble. I have not seen it, I find it hard to imagine much south of where the 5pm shows it going, as there just isn't time for that to happen.
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TXEB
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Where are you seing this wobble. I have not seen it, I find it hard to imagine much south of where the 5pm shows it going, as there just isn't time for that to happen.
https://share.icloud.com/photos/0687bVrhGTj_nMerWF6I6_6HA
A short cut of the radar loop I have been watching is attached via the link.
Edited by TXEB (Wed Oct 09 2024 06:14 PM)
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JMII
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The eye is opening up as the storm expands, it appears to be moving ENE but the expansion makes it difficult to judge. Landfall somewhere between Sarasota and Venice, I don't see enough time to cover anymore distance. The center of pressure and the center of rotation may be different due to shear at this point. Its 50 miles to the coast with an eye that rough looking and 40 miles wide.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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TXEB
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It appears to be headed directly toward Siesta Key.
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Rhino7170
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The eye is opening up as the storm expands, it appears to be moving ENE but the expansion makes it difficult to judge. Landfall somewhere between Sarasota and Venice, I don't see enough time to cover anymore distance. The center of pressure and the center of rotation may be different due to shear at this point. Its 50 miles to the coast with an eye that rough looking and 40 miles wide.
That looks way too far south to me, but it would be welcomed for us in Hillsborough. I just don't see it playing out that way as that is almost due east. What we saw was a wobble, not a track change. The center is still well off land, won't come ashore for another 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 hours. Nothion is still NE/ENE, so that takes the Venice/Siesta Key and most of Sarasota areas out of play unless there is another major wobble.
Edited by Rhino7170 (Wed Oct 09 2024 06:37 PM)
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JMII
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There is a smaller rotation within the larger eye that is shifted NE, maybe due to land interaction. Given this is likely the true center official landfall could be between Sarasota and Bradenton. 16 miles to go.
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cieldumort
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The recon center is now a touch to the right of center line, but maybe not as far as one would expect just looking at radar, given that the bottom half of Milton has taken on a lot of dry air.
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Rhino7170
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The eye is opening up as the storm expands, it appears to be moving ENE but the expansion makes it difficult to judge. Landfall somewhere between Sarasota and Venice, I don't see enough time to cover anymore distance. The center of pressure and the center of rotation may be different due to shear at this point. Its 50 miles to the coast with an eye that rough looking and 40 miles wide.
I gotta give it to you, good call. I didn't expect such a sharp tirn right. Best for us in Hillsborough, feel bad for the people down in Sarasota County and south.
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