cieldumort
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A wave now entering the Caribbean is likely to help pull up an area of spin over extreme northwestern South America this coming weekend, and once combined, a robust low could develop in the western Caribbean early to middle next week. Models are increasingly warming up to developing this low into a tropical cyclone, and has just included this possibility in the afternoon Tropical Weather Update.
Given the strength of the signal from modeling and the fact that the basin is presently under favorable conditions for TC genesis, we are starting a lounge on this modeled tropical cyclone at this time. This feature does not yet have an Invest number, but may very well be assigned one by early next week, and we will update the title of this Lounge at that time, as warranted.
More details to come
As of 12PM CDT Friday October 4, the area of interest we have been tracking is now primarily located in the western Gulf of Mexico. The wave is now in the process of merging with some cross-over energy from former East Pac TD 11 (from Invest 96E), with increasing model support for significant development, and an Invest tag in the western Gulf could be coming as soon as later today or Saturday, and the title will be updated as warranted.
An Invest tag is coming on this feature. Invest 92L as of 0z 10-5-24
2024-10-05 00:00 22.0 -95.5 25
This system is now Milton as of 12:25PM CDT Saturday Oct 5
Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Sat Oct 05 2024 01:37 PM)
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MikeC
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On this one develops it and makes landfall near mobile, however tthe moves it further east, gets it caught up in shear and makes landfall in the Florida peninsula as a very weak system. The Euro and Icon generally head it weaker toward Florida (but the run ends before it gets there on those models). Biggest difference in vs the others is the interaction with the cold front.
So, unfortunately it looks like another system to watch. Timing probably around October 8th for any landfall in the US, give or take a few days.
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cieldumort
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Trend among the 12Z and 18Z runs of the and and their ensembles seems to be increasing the possibility of two distinct systems in the Gulf:
1. The lead wave that helps pull up the area of spin down around South America tries to develop, with several ensemble members doing so but almost all of those staying on the weaker side and driving whatever it is (wave/low/TD) into Mexico or south Texas as mostly a breezy rain-maker, and
2. The area of preexisting spin that the lead wave pulls up, with an apparent majority of members of both global models cranking up from TD to strong hurricane, with most of those then driving it into the northern or eastern Gulf (from about Lake Charles, LA to the Everglades National Park, in the 12Z and 18Z runs).
It is noteworthy that many runs also ramp the Central American Gyre back up and spin out a system once again on the Pacific side, as well. This is a bit messy and can make early modeling very suspect. Overall, ensemble-implied development odds may be about 80% within 10 days from the NW Carib into the Gulf. has bumped up this region to 50% odds within 7 days.
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JMII
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One of runs has this potential gulf storm going into Tampa Bay on Tuesday the 8th. It pops up off Campeche on Sunday and moves NE across the gulf.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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bob3d
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Quote:
One of runs has this potential gulf storm going into Tampa Bay on Tuesday the 8th. It pops up off Campeche on Sunday and moves NE across the gulf.
That is just one of the runs in their ensemble. Most runs take the system into the Florida panhandle. I don't think we should be alarming anyone in the Tampa Bay area at this time.
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bob
Time in West Central Florida: 51 years
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JMII
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Quote:
That is just one of the runs in their ensemble. Most runs take the system into the Florida panhandle. I don't think we should be alarming anyone in the Tampa Bay area at this time.
True as more recent runs show a nothing burger.
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Owlguin
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Most of the models are warming up to a tropical storm or hurricane forming in the gulf and coming into the west coast of Florida in several days.
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IsoFlame
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Regardless of tropical cyclogenesis, modeling suggests a strong gradient across the Florida peninsula due to the developing area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf and the strong high pressure ridge to the north, resulting in several periods of strong onshore NE/E flow through mid-October. The eroded stretch of Florida's east coast from the Cape northward will be especially vulnerable as monthly tides peak (October 12-20th).
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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Lamar-Plant City
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Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell just posted on X that he is predicting a cat 1/2 near west Florida coast late Tues or Wed...first met I have heard predict much more than a possible TS. What does this group think??
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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JMII
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The models are ramping this back up again. Very concerning since I am looking at buying a property in Cape Coral. However we made sure the closing is mid November so it is the current owner that is sweating bullets right now. Biggest worry is surge, along with data indicating a big rain maker regardless of concentration of winds. Having two homes in SFL is all kinds of stupid… but here I am being that guy 
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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cieldumort
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The Area of Interest we have been watching is becoming better organized today, and has been Invest tagged, 92L.
Recon missions begin Sunday
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO).....ADDED FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 06/1200Z
B. NOAA3 01HHA TDR
C. 06/0800Z
D. 22.0N 94.0W
E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 92.5W FOR 06/1800Z. (NO CHANGES)
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/0000Z AND 07/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 06/2000Z AND 07/0800Z, RESPECTIVELY. (CHANGED)
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MichaelA
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I’m waiting for the 00Z model runs. We’re due to arrive home from vacation on October 10 to the Tampa Bay Area. I’d not like to have to hole up in Georgia an extra day or two.
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Michael
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cieldumort
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Above: 18Z EPS Forecast cyclones as of Oct 9 18Z. Credit: Weathermodels.com
12z ensemble implied development odds in the Gulf within the next 5 days is virtually 100%, with most of the individual members on the strong to Major side and an impact focus of Florida.
18z runs are 100%, and generally even stronger than the 12Z runs. Ryan Maue points out that the18z control "was mid 980s, which is what it said for Helene days out."
0z ensemble runs will be coming out overnight, along with the first bids from the hurricane models (HWRF, HAFS, etc).
Based on this afternoon and evening's conventional satellite and microwave images, along with some scantly available ship and buoy reports, nascent TC genesis may already or soon be underway in the Bay of Campeche.
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JMII
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It’s been tagged as 92L. Only good news for now is the shows shear increasing during its run across the gulf keeping it in the Cat 1/2 range. Weds 10am into Clearwater.
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IsoFlame
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GFS 06Z run has 948 mb Milton just offshore from Bradenton/Sarasota area Wednesday morning.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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MikeC
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12z early model plots are clustered near or just south of Tampa.
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bob3d
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NOAA came out with the forecast track and cone of uncertainty at 11 AM EDT of TD 14. It is a very bloated cone in my opinion compared to the slender cone that Helene had. Just goes to show the amount of uncertainty there is in Fourteen's forecast track.
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bob
Time in West Central Florida: 51 years
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OrlandoDan
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Models look fairly clustered to me for this far out. Tampa and Orlando both in the cone. Expectations are a strong hurricane. It's not too early to gas up. There will be a run.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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cieldumort
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First, it's very unfortunate that we do not have recon missions already in Milton today. A few fortuitous microwave passes have at least helped with ascertaining current strength and structure of the cyclone, but as far as creating reliable forecasts go, ideally we would have recon flying nonstop already. I mention this as a caveat to all the models that are now rolling out, and also mention that I'm hesitant to share my own best guesses without recon data.
Second, it cannot be stressed enough that a wind scale alone, (Saffir-Simpson), is wholly insufficient to shorthand the dangers of any TC, and especially TCs such as Helene, and now perhaps Milton also. There is a discomforting chance that Milton never attains Major status, or worse, attains Major only to "weaken" before landfall (especially with a forecast of any such "weakening"), giving laypeople the deceptive impression that "it's not going to be bad."
The expected perpendicular angle of approach to the west coast of Florida is unusual in general. Newcomers and folks who otherwise may never have experienced a hurricane approaching the west coast from this angle may not have a clue. The fatality count from surge alone could be horrendous.
Soap box out of the way, here are some 12Z hurricane model run overviews:
HWRF: Cat 3/4 by 06Z Tues. Cat 4+ by 0z Wed. Landfall around Saint Petersburg as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 3 03z Thursday (Wednesday night).
HMON: Cat 3 by 09z Tues. Cat 4 by 0z Wed. Landfall around the Suncoast Keys predawn Thursday as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 2/3.
HAFS-A: Cat 3 by 18Z Tues. Landfall near Bayonet Point as a potentially catastrophic surge-producing "only Cat 1/2" midday Wednesday.
HAFS-B: Cat 3 by 06Z Tues. Cat 4 by 15z Tues. Cat 5 by 21z Tues. Landfall near Chassahowitzka Bay as a catastrophic surge-producing Cat 2/3 Wednesday morning.
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OrlandoDan
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Did not take a west to east B-Line to South Florida?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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