cieldumort
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Have started a thread just for the BOC Area of Interest over in The Tropics Today: W Gulf this weekend .
now up to 30% if/once the disturbance has moved into the Bay of Campeche.
In order to realize its potential, the disturbance would have to spend enough time over the water and within what looks to be a rather small corridor of lower shear. No Invest tag yet, but will consider inclusion to the Forecast Lounge if these preconditions look to be coming together.
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MikeC
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Multiple models showing something next weekend around the southeast, mostly offf the Southeast, but the is pushing for something in the Gulf near the Panhandle over the energy going off the southeast where most of the other models have it developing, including hte , Icon, and Euro and the google deepmind model has a large spread here also.
Nothing stronger than a weak TS in any of these though.
Image frame targeting sunday morning next week
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MikeC
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18z went a bit wild, but doesn't have much support elsewhere
This is very unlikely, however it does show the heat content in that part of the Gulf (which is very hot right now)
12z Euro keeps it weak and moves it off the southeast (icon does also)
Euro ensembles are mostly off the southeast coast, where ensembles have it more in the northwast Gulf. It's looking more likely there may be something to watch for on the holiday weekend. Note, before this it means it's likely to be HEAVY ranfall over much of Central and North FLorida later in the week, regardless of development.
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MikeC
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Overnight model runs have backed off on development, but the general area of heavy rain remain.
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MikeC
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Beyond Chantal, the next hotspot may be the northeast Gulf in a week or so, but again, unlikely to develop much. (But Chantal was also unlikely)
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CFHC
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12z Euro is surprisingly strong with vorticity on the Gulf area, over the which isn't.
matches
Edited by MikeC (Tue Jul 08 2025 08:09 PM)
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MikeC
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Overnight models backed off on this one, except for the .
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MikeC
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The Gulf area mentioned in the models is interesting, a lot of mixed signals, but enough to make it worth watching into next week, again another case where the models are having a hard time consolidating on anything. It'll likely be something that slips off the atlantic then goes back into the Gulf and it may sit around enough to develop. Ensembles pick it up better than the operational models right now.
Effectively the dot cluster in this map (in a week)
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CFHC
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Less activity today on the euro, more on the
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MikeC
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a Little more activity on the ensembles this evening (both Euro and )
What to watch is the area off south carolina moving south, crossing over Florida, bringing more rain, then into the Gulf, where it has a small chance to develop. Mid to late week.
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MikeC
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Euro ensembles are showing some activity in the MDR late next week. (Also a few members for 93L)
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cieldumort
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Conditions basin-wide in the Atlantic may be flipping from unfavorable to slightly favorable as we enter the back half of July. This could allow for more than just home-grown systems to stand a chance for at least a little while.
As noted by Andy Hazelton, Associate Scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, on XQuote:
Recent trade wind patterns (weakened across the Atlantic, stronger across the East Pacific) have led to warming of the Atlantic MDR and cooling of . The Atlantic is now slightly warm relative to the global tropics, in a more favorable configuration than we've seen since Spring.
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MikeC
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MDR Activity is shown on muiltiple models as soon as Monday or so. (GFS/Euro/Canadian and the ensembles all show something roughly 12n 45w
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CFHC
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12z euro also showing the MDR system, those in the Leewards and Barbados should keep an eye on it, I suspect the 8pm tropical weather outlook will call it out since it's been multiple runs/models at this point.
Luckily it gets sheared out beyond there.
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Fairly large uptick on ensembles in the MDR this afternoon
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MikeC
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18z shows this entering the gulf.
18z Euro AIFS (AI) shows a miami hurricane hit (Aka Dexter Meme Maker)
I remind folks this is the forecast lounge, so these posts type of posts are ok. I don't expect this to happen. We don't post stuff like thee longer range models this on the main page or outside because it's incredibly misleading.
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MikeC
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0z keeps the system mentioned above weak and through the Caribbean, the euro ai has shifted much weaker and further north, however the euro ensembles are very much active still (but the ensembles are not) 6z is similar to 0z (caribbean)
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MikeC
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12Z keeps the system into the Caribbean, and the 12Z Euro does start to develop in the Bahamas and then curves away from the mainland US, staying west of Bermuda also.
So far it looks like anything that could develop from that area won't until late next week and it seems most likely to stay away from the mainland US. But it'll be worth watching until so.
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MikeC
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the operational models and euro ensembles have backed away from development for the most part now. Looking good for another quiet few weeks in the Atlantic.
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MikeC
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Long range situation today, not much going on, however two areas worth at least watching.
The wave across the MDR, likely not to develop but the energy has enough to keep an eye on for a while
The google output shows the spread of the possibilities, but most likely it either won't develop or be weak and remain offshore.
The first area would be close to the SE US in about 2 weeks, and a week before it's close to the Caribbean islands.
Icon and Euro AI show the most with it, Euro AI's been consistent with keeping it a potential threat to South Florida, but it's all on its own there. It'll be something to watch to see when it starts changing its tune.
(August 6 grab from the model:)
It's linked from the front page or click here to see it.
The other area is off some of the same vorticity that 93L had (although its getting harder and harder to link it) gets offhsore of the Carolinas and develops, heading out to sea. Safely away from Bermuda.
These are the current two low probability areas being watched.
The MDR is not in a state to support development right now, but the waves are there. Good test to see how the newer AI models handle it. If the wave going across the Atlantic doesn't develop, we know it was bit off.
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