CFHC
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12z develops a few things off the carolinas. One of those gets near bermuda.
12z canadian puts something close to s. Florida similar to euro ai.
Edited by MikeC (Sun Jul 27 2025 04:01 PM)
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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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I'm favoring potential western Atlantic TC formation in early August a bit further south offshore of Savannaha GA. Will a single consolidated low spin up along an old frontal boundary, or possibly several lows if the boundary lingers as portrayed in the latest ? This season, I don't have faith in model conjecture more than 3-4 days out ATM. That said, homegrown systems can evolve in a matter of hours instead of days.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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MikeC
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Former area of 94L looks decent on satellite this morning Northeast of Puerto Rico, but it'll be entering areas affected by the Saharan Air Layer, so likely short lived.
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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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TC (Dexter?) spins up east of the Carolinas next weekend?
GFS
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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bob3d
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Quote:
TC (Dexter?) spins up east of the Carolinas next weekend?
GFS
IsoFlame,
I get an error (403 forbidden) when selecting the link you provided.
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bob
Time in West Central Florida: 52 years
Edited by bob3d (Mon Jul 28 2025 04:47 PM)
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MikeC
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Euro, Icon, Euro AI and Candian still insist the wave is the MDR becomes a late bloomer closer to the Bahamas. Euro now takes it over Florida and develops in t he Gulf, The AI Version is simiilar but doesn't develop as much in the Gulf. Canadian keeps it east of Florida, and the keeps it in the Islands and doesn't develop at all.
GFS has moved away from anything organized off the Carolinas, but there's still some energy possible there. (None of the other models latch onto it) However plenty of ensembles still show it, whereas the ensembles are much less enthusiastic about the MDR.
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MikeC
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Still nothing too concerning in the short term, just the possible wave nearing the islands this weekend and it moving into the Bahamas with less support for development than before, however something to lounge watch, but is not worth mentioning otherwise from what I can see. Another wave behind that is in that state too right now.
An area forming east off the carolinas is also small shot, it would likely get stretched/sheared apart if anything did develop and avoid land interaction on top of it.
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MikeC
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Support for the MDR wave has dried up (in more ways than one). So it looks ok for now. A few minor ensembles perk it up. But AI/Euro/GFS/CMC/ICON and the Ukmet do not show anything from it.
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cieldumort
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Rough going out the Atlantic lately for any wave trying to make it to the New World
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cieldumort
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IMHO, looking out past ten days or so is very challenging and almost unrealistic other than to gather a clue as to whether or not conditions may be trending more favorable for development. Considering the number of new models recently being utilized by folks, I found the plot below informative.
The AIFS single does very poorly when compared to the Ensemble mean and ensemble mean. However, the AIFS ensemble mean actually slightly outperforms.
Above: 30-90°N 500mb skill scores since December for 's new AI ensemble (AIFS-ENS) vs. Ens, EURO Ens and AIFS single
h/t World Climate Service on X
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cieldumort
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Mid/late August is just about universally recognized as the "real" hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, climatologically. This time frame is when conditions come together to make TC genesis and development much more conducive, with systems anticipated to form way out in the basin and less forming close to home.
Checking in on some of the key the conditions for development in the Tropical Atlantic this year through August 1st shows that, for the most part, the Main Development Region remains fairly inhospitable compared to average, for now, almost entirely because of low vertical instability in the face of a great deal of Saharan Air (warm and dry air aloft)
Above: Vertical Instability in the Tropical Atlantic remains well below average (Bodes poorly for development)
Above: Mean Sea Level Pressure in the Tropical Atlantic remains much higher than average (Bodes poorly for development)
Above: 850hPa Horizontal Divergence may be turning more favorable and has been more favorable so far, overall.
Higher levels of divergence at this level in the atmosphere are often associated with rising air (Favorable for development)
Above: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic have been running higher than average (Favorable for development)
Above: General shear in the Tropical Atlantic has been running about average (Generally favorable for development)
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MikeC
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Persistence is the key is something that drives this site's goal of no hype. Right now the models haven't been very persistent, consistent, or agreed on much, and that remains the case. It doesn't mean no activity, just means there's nothing concerning.
There is a signal that in or around the typicall "bell ring" point of the 20th, this year will wind up being average, and that also means we may have multiple systems going around then. Just nothing on the models calling out anything specific. Euro is showing systems very close to Bermuda and in the Caribbean and something else in between. The isn't showing much. The euro AI model seems to be fixated on South Florida and the Gulf again, just with a different system than the weak wave currently NE of the Caribbean it was showing a week ago or so. Watching for persistence, and if any other models join (and persist) to take any of that seriously.
One wildcard is activity off the Carolinas. Ensembles like it a lot for something weak/short lived or stretched out. But nothing has persisted there, so if anything does form it'll likely be short lived there. Not enough persistence to call out anything significant.
I suspect the next week will be generally quiet, but the signals for the week beyond and more will get louder and louder. A bit concerning this year with the overall pattern more favorable for east coast landfalls than usual -- if anything forms that is. Doesn't mean they will, just that the odds are a bit higher than usual. Particularly the Carolinas a bit north to New England, However, again without any consistency timing and storm location will matter more than anything else there.
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MikeC
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Longer range another area is likely to develop in the MDR, but it most likely will recurve away well before the Caribbean, even though a few ensembles have it going further west, it's less likely. Bermuda may need to watch it. The area off North Carolina may develop short lived, but the front is still very much involved so it may remain stretched out.
The wave currently north of Puerto Rico should be watched, especially as it gets toward the Bahamas, but it also not likely to develop.
18z throws a hurricane in the wake of the yellow 30% area that gets very close to the NC OBX, delaware, and Cape Cod.
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MikeC
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Some interesting this that kinda highlight how mid August may start to get active fast.
95L here on satellite, a frontal boundry over the north gulf, and the old 94L which is the area north of Hispaniola. All somewhat flaring up and showing it probably won't take much to get things going= with relatively short notice sometimes. (I don't expect them to since the Gulf area will move inland, and the 94L area's convection is mostly very far northeast of it, but it does show what to look for)
The area on the southwestern part of 95L (off Jax) is the area that the icon/gfs are keying off of for next development. Icon and want it close to the Outer Banks, but euro keeps it weak and shunts it back into E. Central Florida without development.
95L is also what will likely help pull the 30% area in the east Atlantic out to sea. (I know the has it much further west, but that doesn't seem realistic with the 95l ridge hole)
sat:
matches low level (850) vorticity:
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cieldumort
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I think the area around Hispaniola is mostly from the wave that can be traced back to the E ATL on 7/29. What was left of 94L went through the Lesser Antilles around July 23rd and remnants through the end of the month around there. If this were to start to develop, my bet would be an assignment of a new Invest tag (although upon reviewing more past loops would agree that x94L energy is playing a role here...)
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 03 2025 12:23 PM)
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MikeC
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18Z Long range show a cat 3 making landfall in Melbourne, FL, from the area in the East Atlantic but the euro and its ensembles all show it recurving well east of the Caribbean. I'm betting on the recurve being much more likely. Showing both. It's important to remember this isn't even off Africa yet.
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MikeC
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0z continues the same idea as 18Z, and Melbourne.
** the wave still isn't off Africa yet, so this is likely going to change. Icon and euro still have it recurving well east of here, and that still remains the most likely outcome.
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MikeC
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following up the 6z is starting to bend more toward the euro, which recurves the system corruently about to exit Africa well before Bermuda. This time the (on the 6z run) shows a strong hurricane landfall near Charleston, but I suspect in future runs it'll shift even further east and more aligned with the euro.;
For the area off the southeast most models ar seeing it go to South Carolina and remaining relatively weak.
Euro does show another wave behind the african one moving into the Caribbean though.
So more activity, but nothing too concerning yet.
Why? The euro ensembles show it, but it's about ridging lasting that long and the weakness caused by Dexter, which will more than likely be enough to draw the wave up and out, along with an upper level low potentially eroding that ridge. There's a few stray ensemble members from a system over the Bahamas in a week worth at least noticing here too for Florida/Gulf.
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MikeC
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12Z has basically given up on the idea of the East Atlantic system being significant, and moves the wave over the Caribbean islands. Euro/Icon still recurves it east of Bermuda. Still nothing really concerning to me out in the Atlantic either way though.
(Edit: gets it together quickly once in the Gulf)
Edited by CFHC (Mon Aug 04 2025 01:18 PM)
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MikeC
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12z euro and euro ai stays weak with the Cabo Verde wave and keeps it east of Bermuda still.
However, behind that one it decided to go completely ballistic with as it crosses the Atlantic, and winds up with a Cat 5 in the Bahamas around Aug 19th.
Still way too far in advance to take seriously, but that's typically not something the euro does.
euro ensembles are very active.
Short term, mdr is still stable, but it's gradually becoming more favorible for tropical development during the middle of the month. This is really the most useful information to be gained from the models before anything has developed.
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