CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
|
|
A quick new post to mention the fact that we have our first Tropical Depression of 2002. It has formed off the North Carolina coast, and should be short lived.
We'll be tracking it.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
I don't care if you all hate me. I'm happy now yes!!! 
|
Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Well, after all it has given us looks like 96L finally got the kick it needed! anyway, looks pretty good on satellite and i dont see any reason for it not to become a TS within 12 hours or so... after all the winds only need to increase by 5 mph!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
|
Jason Moreland
Unregistered
|
|
Is now available on the active storms page. Newfoundland should clsoely watch this developing systems as it will likely pass over them in 72-84 hours.
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
http://www.geocities.com/forecastteam
|
Matt
Unregistered
|
|
dinner!!! he he he. Now we got t.d one in it will more likely move to the east north east and become are first tropical storm there also looks to be a tropical upper low around 60 west that could move down to the surfest. that center of are new t.d looks good. wave 10 west looks to come off the coast so ya all in joy now next update 6 hours from now that won'd you can all see this dumb weather lover post again he he he ssssssssss.   
take some more maybe I'm a little sick of being nice won'd getting kick be hurricane haters.
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
hey, it finally did something besides nothing.. this is one of those baroclinically induced development cases, the usual garden variety early/late season storm. SFC obs still show a goofy elongated storm, but the proximity to the u.s./deep convection is all the convincing the needed this time. i dont recall anybody picking july 14th for a first storm, so nobody gets the cup this year. let there be much lamenting among the psychic community. we get 36-60 hrs with this one before it phases in with a shortwave dropping down into the canadian maritimes, heads up to newfoundland. then its back to watching sheared waves and retrograding cutoffs. the deep tropics wont be ready for another 2-4 weeks.. unlikely to get anything below 20N. just tropical halfbreeds, if anything. TD 1/future arthur does seem like a throwback to the last couple of years.. a mid latitude fish spinner. wonder if this is a sign of things to come..
matthew people who like this site dont want incoherent garbage posts between every other clear and useful one. quit acting stupid and make your posts worth reading or stop making them. or go on a juvenile tirade and curse me, get yourself booted, i dont really care. im just tired of seeing posts that a chimp banging a keyboard could better.
HanKFranK irritated in aikenSC 2315z14july
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Well well well..I read the 11:30 and said, "yeah right" when they said it was not going to develop---so here is about to be Arthur after all! Oh well, I only missed it by 13 days.
OK- I rarely comment about other posters, but I will make ONE exception--I agree 100% HF about Matthew's posts. Cmon Matthew!
IHS,
Bill
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
I thought Hf was nice the more you guy push me the harder I'm going to push back so lets just talk about the tropics in forget it please drop this in so we can go back to the tropic!!!. In plus how needs the fight I just want to talk tropic please. I will go back to 6 hour forecast in all neaver make another poll but have some like in u to stop the bull #!@$ want tropics no bull #!@$. hurricane lover Matthew 
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
Somehow I thought 96L would develop when it got to the Atlantic, and it did so. I am in total agreement with on the track and strength. This is typical of early season storms, they're usually pretty boring. Since many have been wondering if TD 1/possible Arthur means anything to the future of hurricane season 2002 regarding East Coast landfalls. It's lead me to this poll.... 
There's nothing better than a good 'ole fashioned "yes" or "no" question. It's the $125,000 question this year, but it could well be the $1,000,000 question.
|
John C
Unregistered
|
|
Matthew,
Would you please email me at john@flhurricane.com I would like to tell you something in private. I am not going to ban you I do not need your email address for that.
Thank you
|
Matthew
Unregistered
|
|
Hi I'm Matthew. I'm sorry but My email do's not work. I'm just happy to get a computer a few years back and before that I watched the weather channel in watched my news channel to make a forecast I was watching hurricane since 1996. I'm so sorry I can not email. In sorry for all the bad stuff I did. I was thinking for a time that I could do forecast as a user but no email no password and than I got dum in made people mad. All I wanted to do is make forecast in stead I started a bigger fight. So thanks for not banding me hurricane watcher and hurricane lover Matthew.
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
read gary gray's millennium weather piece on t.d. 1, which most expect to be arthur tomorrow. he talked about the rarity of a first storm between the 1st and 23rd of july. i went and looked up all the years between 1950 and 2001 where the first tropical storm of the season formed between july 10th and 20th. there were only two: 1961 and 1985.
both were interesting seasons. it makes me wonder if they are in some way analog to this year. i'm sure joe b. will have a piece on the implications of our mid july storm in his july 15th article.
matthew i'm just trying to get you to write something worthy of a fifth grader. call me crazy but i've got an idea that you could if you tried. i dont think im being mean, but making reasonable requests that echo what others are probably thinking. really i wish i knew what jc thinks about all this, since he's the guy in charge. dude seriously all youve got to do is write in sentences with at least half the words understandable, then everybody would be cool with you and probably listen to whatever it is youre trying to say. get me? otherwise your garbled posts are like brussels sprouts on a cake, something that just sort of ruins the good stuff here for everybody else.
jc, hey.. id rather not be lecturing people on obvious stuff. you s'pose you could tell me/us where to draw the line on saying something and just letting the s*** pile up? after all, you da boss.
HF aikenSC 0406z15july
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
HF,
'85 was a very interesting season for this part of the world. I've seen it mentioned in some write-ups as an analog year but I can't remember exactly what the connections were.
I saw rain from 3 different systems that year. It was an exciting one. I took that whole summer off and did nothing (no analog on that!)
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Matt,
I'm not your boss, and I'm not here to tell you what to do. I'm guessing that either you're young or English is perhaps a second language - but I could be wrong.
Here's a suggestion. Before submitting a post, type it up in MS Word with the grammar and spell checker on. After you go through the checks, your posts will be correct. Just copy and paste it as a reply. I promise that you won't have to listen to a bunch of crapola from other users except if your forecasts suck
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
So will TD One become Arthur? Good question! Visible imagery shows the low-level centre exposed on the western edge of the deep convection. However, an exposed or even open centre does not mean that the depression wont become a Storm. Remember Bonnie a few years back? Before she moved onshore near Wilmington, a few hours prior her centre was open to the west! And she still strengthened from a Cat 1 to a Cat 2. Although the time is short for TD One, it might just make it to TS Arthur before going . And yes, i think Arthur might only be around for 12 or 18 hours!
Any way, i guess we will see as the next batch of Advisories from will be out within the hour.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
|
andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
|
|
While it seems to be quite on the storm front, here in the panhandle it seems we have had more rain this year than in several years past. Its seems we are getting those systems that give us the rain but don't develope into anything. If I remember correctly, those seem to be the years that we don't get many, but those we get are big ones. Does anyone else agree with these thoughts?
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
We like you in the Panhandle have had tons of rain in the last Month or so, and we are still 5 inches short of normal for the year. They are saying it would take one good tropical storm to catch us up.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
