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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Zeta) , Major: 338 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1024 (Michael) Major: 1024 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: wet Fla. weekend?
      #13310 - Wed Sep 24 2003 01:19 PM

yep. pattern induced, late season stuff starting up. with the ebb and flow of the pattern over north america we should be able to spot these potential areas well.. so here comes the slow evolution regime where we have global models hinting at tropical lows, and dynamic models forecasting major hurricanes in the caribbean.
just recall that chart of recent activity i put up a few days ago.. this may be a historical source area for big weather events in florida, but in recent years very little has evolved from them and made headlines.
note that there is that potential system near bermuda (bastardi already said the majic phrase 'karen', as if bermuda needs another lick this season), and that east atlantic wave (late in the season for development out there, it will probably come across and develop later rather than get going way out there).
HF 1720z24september


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Telekineesis and the 2 areas of convection
      #13311 - Wed Sep 24 2003 01:42 PM

Well...however you spell that word that Bastardi is always throwing around...

Has anyone noticed the connection between the two areas that are currently convecting and spinning a bit..they seem to be blowing up and convecting in tandem and both have developed a signature of curvature.. Atlantic off of Florida Coast..way out and Carib and there seems to be some connection in ways between the two that I am sure someone could explain better.

But anyone can see it

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: 98L
      #13312 - Wed Sep 24 2003 01:55 PM

New Invest 98L just posted.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 98L
      #13313 - Wed Sep 24 2003 02:29 PM

That is for the area south east of Bermuda?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: 98L
      #13314 - Wed Sep 24 2003 02:36 PM

It's the area sw of the CV islands around 11N Lat., looks like we may have another long tracker developing.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 98L
      #13315 - Wed Sep 24 2003 02:41 PM

Thanks. I go to the NRL Monterey Tropical site, but I am unsure where to look on there for coordinates. Where do you get your info which lists coords? Thanks again.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: 98L
      #13316 - Wed Sep 24 2003 02:50 PM

Don't see any coordinates posted, but zooming in on the Satellite pics, the center of rotation seems to be around 11N 34W. It's in a dry air environment but seems to be developing
TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 98L
      #13317 - Wed Sep 24 2003 03:24 PM

I thought the first Invest would be the Bermuda area. The enviroment ahead of 98L is not suppose to be very good.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Back
      #13318 - Wed Sep 24 2003 04:20 PM

Sorry for not having been around during Isabel's grand entrance on this East Coast (what?!?!?!?!!?!?! A storm actually hit the East Coast!?!?!?!?! ). The high school work and think monster is chasing me around....which is okay.

Three areas of interest...eins....zwei...drei.

98L CV wave looks pretty good right, and it is holding it's own especially considering the dry air around it. My forecast=slow development.

Caribbean disturbed weather...new, needs to show persistence to impress me.

Low pressure area south of Bermuda...non-tropical, won't affect anyone...u get the picture.

The short-take


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Wet weekend in S. Fla.?
      #13319 - Wed Sep 24 2003 05:28 PM

From the 245 pm Miami National Weather Service discussion:

FOR THE WEEKDEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT'LL BE WET. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR SHOWING WEAK CLOSED LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THE UKMET ALSO SHOWS A WEAK LOW IN THE
AREA...MAINLY OFF THE EAST COAST. THE CANADIAN GEM ON THE OTHER HAND IS
MOST BULLISH...PUTTING A 991 MB LOW ACROSS S. FLORIDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION IS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH DECENT TROPICAL MOISTURE. CONSEQUENTLY
WILL EXTEND THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SOME DRYING THEREAFTER THROUGH MID WEEK IN
ALL BUT SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRING DRIER
AIR THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Isn't it funny?
      #13320 - Wed Sep 24 2003 05:29 PM

Yesterday and the day before the whole basin looked as unfriendly as it could be and today we are watching 3 different areas.

Invest pops up and we were all looking elsewhere.

Were we all forgetting that this is almost peak week in the tropics or a day or two off.

Imagine many a storm came in on Sept 24th over time.

Seems we aren't finished yet this year.

Invest looks nice.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
5:30 TWO
      #13321 - Wed Sep 24 2003 05:38 PM

Two of the three systems mentioned on the board have potential. The one in the Carribbean isn't forecast to develop...at least not very quickly:

"An area of disturbed weather centered about 285 miles south-southeast of Bermuda has become better organized this afternoon. Upper-level winds are marginally favorable for further development...and a tropical depression could form in the next day or two as the system moves slowly toward the north-northeast.

Showers and thunderstorms centered about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a strong tropical wave. This system has become a little better organized today...and upper-level winds have become more favorable. Some additional development is possible during the next day or so.
A area of disturbed weather continues in the western Caribbean Sea-between Colombia and Jamaica. This system is currently disorganized but upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for slow development during the next few days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
98L
      #13322 - Wed Sep 24 2003 06:48 PM

That one is of my interest because of the area where I am and I know it wont be a fish because of the low latitud that it is.But will it develop as it is going to fight some shear but more important dry air.I haven't seen so far the models what they are saying about this system but if someone has them please post.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
two now
      #13323 - Wed Sep 24 2003 06:52 PM

the 28th and 29th invests of the season are currently in the southeastern north atlantic and waters near bermuda, respectively. the former is far east for this time of year and will probably need to get much further to the west to do any real developing... the latter is forecast to slowly work its way northward towards the canadian maritimes over the next few days.
there is enough model support calling for low pressure in the caribbean to take it seriously, as such a system would pose a more immediate threat. likely have one, maybe two... outside possibility of three classified systems evolve by early next week.
HF 2252z24september


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: 98L
      #13324 - Wed Sep 24 2003 06:54 PM

cycloneye.. this late in the year, systems forming out there do tend to turn up. if it develops out at say, 40-45w, it will more than likely recurve well east of you. if its down near 55w doing the same thing this weekend.. well, then you may have a problem.
HF 2254z24september


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
mjo
      #13325 - Wed Sep 24 2003 06:57 PM

the september 23rd MJO graphic shows it in the basin. amazing how much of an effect it can have.

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islander
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: San Juan, PR
Re: 98L
      #13326 - Wed Sep 24 2003 08:09 PM

Unbelievable...yesterday at this time we had nothing to look at and now "upper level winds are (or will be) favorable" for anything. As with Cycloneye, my main concern is 98L, though I have the feeling it won't survive its surroundings.

Let's just keep an eye...

MikeC: OK, I'm a member now. Hope to keep learning from these people as my scarce time allows me


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: 98L
      #13327 - Thu Sep 25 2003 06:09 AM

Good morning guys! Well after yesterdays little feeding frenzy (actually more like a snack) of new possibilities, everything seems to be in extra slow mode again. Pretty bad when you fall asleep sitting in front of the computer. Keep telling myself that patience is a virture. Waiting and watching, come on you day time posters, I need more to read when I get home from work!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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SunNFun
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Redington Beach, FL
Pensacola.. in the Gulf..
      #13328 - Thu Sep 25 2003 07:58 AM

Seems to be an area of disturbance forming pretty rapidly in the Gulf south of Pensacola.. anyone have a feel on it?

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Pensacola.. in the Gulf..
      #13329 - Thu Sep 25 2003 08:37 AM

Didnt even notice...had to go back and take a second look.. my eyes were looking elsewhere (sorry ..down here in south florida i don't look up north that way much)

Yeah..interesting, more so as a steering dynamic for the whole area more than development, very close in..

Think if that little bubble of convection that has made it across the dry air gets into the right spot it could do something..just east of the islands.

Like the Carib..incubation period tho...spiraling pinwheel low pressure needs to get over warm water.

Wave... well... hard to look at the following link and not have your heart race just a drop and think...wow..whats that?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

good day all, yep..real busy
listening to johnny cash this morning, is it just me or are others? wondering

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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