Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Nothing to report - just closing out the old News Forum and starting up the new one. Hope that your holidays were great and looking forward to another year of storm tracking in the Atlantic basin.
Forcast for the 2004 season has been posted in the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Initial Outlook and Updated Forecast for the 2004 season are posted in the Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Edited by John C (Wed Mar 24 2004 10:41 AM)
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Chris Hunter
Unregistered
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Quiet now but we are getting ready!
http://www.hurricraft.com/testflight.htm
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Bill
Unregistered
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Site lost my post==try again!
Think we have crazy tracks!? Look at this:
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0904.gif
Reminds one of Juan in 85 over La, but 'more so'. Never seen anything like this.
The low just south of APX has looked almost subtropical at times--with upper reflection hanging back, now just s of La.
Only 4 mos to go---or is it 2? 
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Hi everyone
now sure what I was looking at when I looked at it
Hope all is ok with everyone.
Wondering with anticipation of what the coming year will hold for us. Early start late finish? Late start early finish? Who is to say. We haven't had a freeze yet here so the temps of the waters are warmer than normal.
Will prove to be interesting.
See you in a couple of months.
JustMe
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Waiting eagerly for the season to start and the questions start to come out.
When will Alex form before june 1 or after june 1?
What Kind of will be in the equatorial pacific?
Will the coastline of the US see a major hurricane making landfall?
Will the CV season be active as in 2003?
Those are a few of the questions that will be answered in the comming months.And waiting to discuss with all the members here what will happen in the 2004 season.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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TSR just issued their February update on the upcoming 2004 season. It's still early, but they are forecasting a well-above average season in respect to numbers and probabilities.
Link here:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_forecast/images/cmb.recordxy.gif
Not saying that this doesn't have a shot at verifying, but look at the rapid El Nino development from November to December.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually the long range trend has been toward an eventual El Nino, but even if it does verify it will happen too late to have any influence on the 2004 season. If it materializes (and sustains for 5 or 6 months) , it could have a dampening effect on the 2005 season.
Recently returned from a QM2 cruise and the SSTs from St Thomas to St Lucia were steady at 26C.
Cheers,
ED
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Hey Ed...it's been a while...
I do agree that at some point we will get an El Nino. There usually is a certain stage that the warming will get to that will lead to El Nino development.
26C? That's warm. Actually, most of the Atlantic has seen above normal SSTA's since the end of last hurricane season, with the exception of the air-cooled waters off of the NE US coast.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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No telling on El Nino. Seems that it's been more La Nina to netural for the last couple of years (at least in the eastern zones). Today's SSTA's look pretty neutal still. As for the Atlantic, it's mostly "slightly warmer than average" except right along the entire East and Gulf Coasts of the .
I don't have much of a handle on the 2004 season yet. I'd expect it (on a hunch) to differ from 2002-2003. We'll have to check the water temperature profiles in May and also continue to watch where the the trofs are lining up (and how far west they retrograde) We'll have to watch the EastPac for any deviations from neutral and how they play into the peak season (late August - mid October). Many may recall that March-June period is the most statisically difficult period to predict oncoming El Ninos. And we'll have to watch precipitation profiles for the winter and spring in the SE.
Anyway, I'd guess that the season (#'s wise) should be closer to average than the last 2 years, but that's a real stretch right now. Absent a strong El Nino, I'd figure about 12 NS is as good of a place as any to build off of.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Hello to all and wishing everyone a good winter season. I am beginning to salivate over the coming season and watching to see if El Nino is going to rear its ugly head.
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Jara
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just a note to let you know that I've started the annual forecast ritual in the Storm Forum. Take your own best shot at the numbers for the upcoming season.
Cheers,
ED
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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I am eagered for the season to start.I posted my forecast at the storm forum and my numbers are 13/8/3.It will be another interesting and exciting season that all of us will follow and discuss here.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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visitor
Unregistered
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can't wait for the start
seems as though it  has been forever
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NNE
Unregistered
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Ideas? Explanation? Global warming?
An unprecedented tropical cyclone has developed in the South Atlantic about 300 miles from the coast of Brazil. This looks like a full-blown hurricane on satellite images, and has formed in an area that has never recorded a tropical cyclone.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The South Atlantic hurricane has a rating of 4.5-it's a hurricane! This is remarkable.
On another note, it has the excellent satellite appearance of a storm that is intensifying fairly quickly. It's headed towards the Brazilian Coast, hopefully they prepare.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/8286042.htm
Even the folks of the are puzzled by this development.It is a first for that area so I hope that in Brazil they are prepared.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Summercyclone
Unregistered
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Here is a pic link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/8.jpg
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcgts/wtnt80.txt
UKMET Is following this unprecedented hurricane and it is a first for that area.It has no name because ever a cane has formed there.But dont expect to be named ALEX because those names are for the north atlantic only.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Summercyclone
Unregistered
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Take a look at this:
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCunknown086_G12.jpg
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