CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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Two days until the season starts, nothing really active now to watch. We'll have a larger update for Tuesday.
During the summer we are redoing the look and layout of the site, and will be making some long needed improvements. Especially to those browsing without Internet Explorer, and other visual changes as well as new data features to the site. This summer will be interesting in many ways.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
For a seasonal Forecast Update, see the Storm Forum.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun May 30 2004 05:21 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Kava Kava or Chill Pills cause Im getting tropically depressed here.. its HOT and HOT and not raining and going to move to Kansas to get some rain
wish there was a system of any kind to track over this holiday season..
water
batteries
weather radio
coca cola, even warm its good
can opener
diary to record it all
cell phone well charged (tie the cell phone charger around your waste so it doesnt blow away and you can charge it again once electric is restored and they get those towers up and working again 
someone to share it all with
money, dont forget money..atm runs on electric
baby wipes .. not for a baby (duh) but keep you and things around you clean when you cant use the water til they say its not dangerous
rain after a storm will help as you can bathe in the rain a bit
backyard better but of course the trees and hedges will be gone so your neighbors will see
sterno instant coffee
favorite canned food, non electric can opener
gosh i miss hurricanes.. just to stare at one on screen spinning...
going to up my kava kava dose
starbucks sells little small cans of expresso if u cant do without
bobbi... nothing, nothing out there
this is ridiculous
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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I am prepared for the season as every year my family does.Hopefully this season nothing happens and Puerto Rico is not threatened but as this island is at hurricane alley every year our eyes are peeled to the east.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Sun May 30 2004 11:50 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Well... if my brother (a weather freak if there was one) called to tell me he just saw Roland giving over some info that was supposed to be released on June 1st but he said as of today May of 2004 was the 4th driest May in history. The top 3 being 1935, 1969 and 1992. My brother added... "isnt that scary.. come on" ... I laughed, thought on it for a second and said "yeah if I was living in Lousianna I'd be terrified."
I mean... gets anyone's attention who knows hurricanes. And, yes... the high ... the high. Feel like that little guy on Fantasy Island (what was his name?) De High De High pointing up into the big blue sky...
All years were hits on Louisianna and think anyone in Florida, this hot sunny peninsular hanging down into the Caribbean Sea ... should sit up and go.. okay...
I hear Jaws music..
Also......something he said about taking a while for a pattern to change so it should be this way a while.
I might point out that 2 of those storms were August storms and Labor Day barely makes it into September... well ahead of the peak of the season a few weeks later.
Something to think on..
Anyone else see Roland? Maybe I'll try and catch him at 11 and see if its repeated.
otherwise... chow for now.. eating burgers, mexicorn and baby creamer potatoes with diet pepsi (yes that person online here can roll their eyes... i didnt want water) and wondering what June will bring.... cause don't think it will be too soon
Bobbi
ps..let me know if my baby brother got it right
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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Actually, there is research done my Jim Lushine at NWS MIA that correlates wet and dry May weather to (major) hurricane strike probability for S. Fl. Jim presented his finding recently and they are:
In re: 24 wettest Mays in Miami== number of major hurricane strikes in those years in S. Fla= ZERO
In re: 20 driest Mays= 7 strikes.
The driest was in 1965 (Betsy)
2nd driest was 1935 (Great Labor Day Hurricane)
3rd Driest was 1992 (Andrew)
Fifth driest was 1945 (Major Hurricane in S Fl).
This May will go into the books (assuming it doesn't rain on Memorial Day in MIA) as the FOURTH Driest.
I don't know about June (not too soon, I suspect, as Bobbi says)..but...there is a a much higher than normal probability of a hurricane/major hurricane in S. Fl this year, based on all available information, periodicity and trends.
sc 
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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good year
okay... well then will see how tomorrow goes
guess those old wives tales were right, huh?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Can you ship up north whatever it is that causes your "poetic" posts, cause they sure do bring a smile to my face...
On the bright side of things, I almost sometimes think scientists get a tad carried away with analogs and future predictions. Seriously, you could say that every year we elect a president, we also have a summer olympics. (except of course, when the world is at war, or the Russians are occupying Afghanistan).
Still, though, analogs do serve to remind us that weather patterns are not only cyclical, but certain charastics of one year will produce certain results later on (i.e. El Nino years, Neutral years and La Nina years).
Back on topic, here's (Cheers) to Ed, John and Mike for making this the best weather chat on the web, and we all look forward to an exciting 04 season.
May see The Day After Tomorrow tomorrow (huh?). Maybe we should all see it and make a new thread with our reviews? So far, anyone I've talked to who's seen it says the graphics/effects are OUTSTANDING, the story and the acting, over the top. Typical f=== Hollywood. I'm just going in for the special effects.
Two days and counting (tick, tick, tick...)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>1935, 1969 and 1992
Scary years. If you were in Mississippi, you'd be petrified at the mention of 1969! I remember being a yungun and the power went out here. My mom walked me to bed with a candle and told me that it'd all be over by morning. Indeed it was - leaves scattered around, but not the kind of death/doom/destruction Camile dropped 45 miles due east of me. Thus began the fascination (or was that due to my 1 year old experience of being rescued by Civil Defense in Hurricane Betsy?)
Anyway, the difference between 69 and 92 (definitely 92) was that I'm pretty sure both were solid El Nino years. There's none such of that happening now. The PAC basin is decidedly neutral. We all know that one of the ways out of drought is via tropical activity. We also know that when Miami gets hit from the East or SE by anything major, the North Gulf is next in line. If it works out this time, I'm all for it. Then again, I'm kinda feeling guilty. After precip and clouds from 7 systems in 2002 and then Bill last year after waiting the better part of 3 decades for a reasonable hit (excluding Andrew, Bob, Florence and ), I've gotten my fair share of recent action. Things different this time around - my kids are all wigged about storms now too. They love 'em. We had a blast for Georges, Lili, Isidore and Bill. I'm also a home owner now, and my lot is in a flood zone. But we're going to meet any storm mano a mano or mano a femano.
I don't have squat at home except my first aid kit. I'm not in any hurry to re-stock anything either. I'm one of those guys who's the first at the store when I clue in on a potential threat, so I never get stuck in those long lines. Not me - unless it's for re-upping beer and cigs.
Peace, and here's to 2004 - 27.25 hours and counting.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Oh yeah,
Phil - change that damn avatar. It's too fat for the screen.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I think (I hope) you were being tongue in cheek with the "mano a femano" call. Cause, mano a mano actually refers to "hand to hand" from the Latin (I learned that the hard way when a friend called me on the use of the phrase.) Ever since, we've been joking about it, often 'bastardizing' the use of the phrase...just like you did. LOL!
Keep up your most awesome posting. And I agree with you about the analogs not quite being analogs. Though, I doubt there is anyone on this board who would EVER want a repeat of '92 or '69. Glad you came out of both OK.
And, get your supplies together, OK .
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve, I don't know what's up with that, half of the time (today) I check in it takes up 1/2 the screen, the other time it's fine... I'll get rid of it altogether if it keeps screwing everyone's screens up, but I've had it as an avitar for three months and now is the only time it's doing it. Seems like it's only after I post...once I check "who's online" and return to the main screen, everything's fine. If it happens again, I'll definitely get rid of it. Sorry 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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I've done my normal preperations for the year with the basic supplies necessary to survive a "weather emergency". If we have a nuclear attack then I'm pretty well done! Of course I will not need it here in Central Florida as NASA has provided a block for anything Tropical approaching from the East Coast and the a dome of the Magic Kingdom's pixie dust will protect me from any western approach.
Bring on the storms as my tracking charts are ready. 
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Jara
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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SC, howz your screen? Is it f---ed due to my posts or is it OK.. Cause if I'm screwing everyone else's page up I'll eliminate it.
I'm viewing it OK, but I know how annoying it can be when a poster's "signature" broadens the screen.
If it's bad...it's GONE!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Phil, FYI your avitar is stretching out the screen, you may want to adjust it, so we won't have to scroll to the right.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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look closely at satellite loops
a low is over eastern Honduras and appears to have been sliding to the NW in teh last 36 hours, and is under favorable upper winds and on its way into the NW Caribbean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Once again my town beared the brunt of another string of tornados today. I was lucky enough to be out and about and had a great view of roughly an F2 as it moved across the south side of Indianapolis. After it passed my position I was able to "safetly" observe the debris field from no more than 100-200 feet away. This is far closer than I was to the one in Sept 2002 and I certainly don't want to be any closer than this. Damage to my city was pretty heavy...however again my home was spared by 1/4 mile...(to the north instead of the south this time..) I just hope the next one doesn't split the middle or I'll be screwed!
Derek
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Been watching that since late yesterday...first almost wrote it off and then it hangs in there and I keep noticing it more and more. Then again...at this poing I would notice any puff of white down there.. but it has a look and a signature to it that shows it at least has tenacity and aspirations...
worth watching... not like there's anything else out there better to watch
as for the split screen question... well
would imagine thats some programming fluke.. I mean I thought it tells you that the pic has to be a certain size and if it was his pic then it would have been happening every day for a while not just today... seems today is flukey and someone on the technical side of this board could answer that one
for now enjoying the quote more than I am being annoyed about the problem.. tho personally i dont like the avitars that move because it always distracts me from the text and enjoy the text more .. but thats me
and steve... so true what you said about natures way of correcting a problem ... or drought is to prepare for a downpour someday.. wondering if that applies to life situations as well
as for my poetic style...comes from the scent of plumeira outside my window and mangoes ripening on the window sill filling the house with more scents than Pier One could hope to achieve in one advertising brochure and staring out to the west towards the somewhat distant Everglades watching the clear blue sky waiting for it to rain ... someday
bobbi
Fav. John Kerry Quote: "Who among us doesn't like NASCAR". Whom amongst us SPEAKS LIKE THAT? lol who among us indeed! lol
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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seriously... worth a look and a smile
can see here but watching ghcc
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Polk County Florida
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Interesting looking but way too early I suppose(?)
How about that little tyke off the Honduras. Do I see attempts at banding on the east side?
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Good or bad, weather is all there is.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Not really weather related, but I changed my "picture". Hope this one doesn't mess up everybody's screens. So sorry. It bothered me too.
"Happy" Memorial Day to all, as it's not really a happy day we're remembering. Our last full day until the season kicks off tomorrow...should be an active one, according to all the pundits.
Bobbi, keep the happy scents a-comin'! I'll probably remove the Kerry quote soon. Only put it in there 'cause I thought it was funny. Ed deleted it in a main post earlier.
Everyone be safe over the remainder of the weekend, and hopefully no more twisters in IND, or anywhere else today.
Peace & Cheers,
LI P
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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