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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC
      #16024 - Mon Jul 12 2004 09:04 PM

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/04071300

Finnally the second tropical storm of the season has formed in the EPAC but wont be of a long duration because cooler waters await it to it's west.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16025 - Mon Jul 12 2004 09:13 PM

Luis,

I think we'd all agree that this one was "just a matter of time."

Blas

Looks to be short lived, but it's quite possible that Celia is right behind. If HF's notation that (deeper in the season) Atl development is 5-9 days behind, I'd say we'd have Alex by the end of the month. However, MJO and dry air, plus Saharan dust seem conspiring against it, I think at this point in time Alex may have to wait...

Still, a couple of waves to track...the atlantic a "jack in the box" just waiting to crank in August...don't think we're too quiet for too much longer.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC [Re: LI Phil]
      #16030 - Tue Jul 13 2004 06:54 AM

Blas is now up to 50kts. The latest advisory has it peaking at 60kts, but the discussion says that it is quite possible that the storm could make hurricane status. It looks good on satellite imagery.

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC [Re: James88]
      #16031 - Tue Jul 13 2004 07:51 AM

Agree it looks like it will reach hurricane status just before it gets into cooler waters.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16033 - Tue Jul 13 2004 09:04 AM

James & Luis,

Winds were up to 60 mph last I checked...it's going to be close to Hurricane status. If it does make, it will JUST make it. I'd still bet against it, but the odds aren't nearly as good as they were yesterday. Blas has maybe 24 hours before he encounters cooler waters where he will fade away fairly quickly. So, for at least one day, we have something to track.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC [Re: LI Phil]
      #16037 - Tue Jul 13 2004 12:27 PM

Of the models, the GFDL is actually forecasting Blas to reach hurricane strength for a short period, while the UKMET is predicting a path much closer to the coast (and hence, over warmer water which could also nudge Blas to H status). Official track and progs are for a TS for 24-36 hours with a WNW track.

tracking models.

Also of note is now the models are backing off forming Celia in Blas' wake, as they were doing yesterday. I still feel there's a chance for Celia, but not a great one.

New disturbance in the WestPAC, should reach TS status and affect Taiwan down the road.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC [Re: LI Phil]
      #16039 - Tue Jul 13 2004 01:09 PM

Is it just me, or is Blas beginning to look a bit ragged on satellite imagery? I get the feeling that it will not get much stronger (at least judging by its current appearance). The centre also looks like it is becoming exposed.

The season out there is so quiet this year. This time in 2003 they were already on Tropical Storm Enrique. When is activity out there going to increase? I'm more interested in the Atlantic basin, but the E. Pacific normally gives us something to watch in the early months. Not this year it seems.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm Blas forms at EPAC [Re: James88]
      #16043 - Tue Jul 13 2004 01:49 PM

Blas is definitely looking a little more ragged, but this may be temporary. Cloud tops are getting warmer, but again, this may just be a phase. Problem is, the more he moves NW, the colder the waters beneath him become, so he may have reached peak development as we speak. He'd need to slow down and try to restrengthen or we may just have seen his best. But as I said, this could just be temporary and strengthening could still occur as the waters are still warm enough to support strengthening.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Blas on the wane? [Re: LI Phil]
      #16044 - Tue Jul 13 2004 03:47 PM

I don't know - there is very little convection on the west side of the storm and what there is on the east appears to be fading away. I think that Blas may have peaked and that he is beginning to decay. Having said that there does seem to some convection clinging to the centre, but not enough I fear.

Even though the system is not as impressive as earlier today, it is very large.

Edited by James88 (Tue Jul 13 2004 03:48 PM)


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JasonM603
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
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Re: Blas on the wane? [Re: James88]
      #16060 - Wed Jul 14 2004 03:31 AM

Blas is now beginning to weaken. There will not be any comebacks now...Blas is moving into dry air and cooling temps. One look at the latest IR will tell you that Blas is about to RIP.

Hey guys.

--------------------
Independent Wx

Seasonal Forecast


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Blas on the wane? [Re: JasonM603]
      #16077 - Wed Jul 14 2004 11:04 AM

Despite the fact that Blas has very little convection to speak of and is moving over increasingly cooler water, he still continues to cling to tropical storm status. He will probably be downgraded to a remnant low by this time tomorrow.

Oh well, he gave us something to watch during the quiet time.


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