MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11 PM Update
Danielle is now a hurricane with sustained winds of 65 knots. It is somewhat uncommon for a tropical cyclone to reach hurricane strength on or east of 30W. Danielle is moving to the west northwest and a more northwestward motion is expected. At the moment it looks like Danielle will remain at sea during its lifetime.
Tropical Storm Earl continues to move west northwest at 20mph and this motion should continue for several days. Note the following from : A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA.
Earl should continue to intensify and reach hurricane strength on Monday.
Tropical Storm Continues to swiftly move northeastward off of the New Jersey coast and should reach Long Island around sunrise on its way to the Boston area. will soon transition to an system.
ED
Original Post
Earl is of most concern to Florida over the next few days. Are you ready to possibly go through this again this coming weekend? Tropical storm Earl will likely be classified at 5PM and move toward Jamaica and then Cuba.
is moving through NC/Virginia and quickly toward the northeast as a much much weaker system.
We'll be watching as we recover from .
More to Come Later.
Damage Photos from New Smyrna Beach area taken by Mike C.
Event RelatedLinks
Hurricane City is having live audio and video broadcasts throughout the day on Bonnie/Charley and Jim's Audio show is from 8PM to 11PM EST
All model "Spaghetti" for Earl from hurricanealley
Another Multi-Model Track plot for Earl
Damage Photos from New Smyrna Beach area taken by Mike C.
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 15 2004 03:46 AM)
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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So much for a quiet season.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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The T #'s for both storms are at 2.5 now.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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(Post deleted by moderator)
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 14 2004 09:42 PM)
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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(off topic post)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 15 2004 03:49 AM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Here is some images of
Charley before landfall
Shot #2
Another Shot
yet another shot
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I agree that is a little harsh, but I understand where he is coming from. There are millions too many people living along the coast that have no clue of the real risk to themselves and their families. It is unfortunate, but it will take more wakeup calls like this before the local, state and federal governments do anything to stop the uncontrolled growth of these low lying areas. As horrible as this situation is, it is minor compared to what would have happened had hit Tampa, or anywhere along the SE coast of Florida. If Andrew had hit 20 miles further north the destruction and deaths would have been ten times as bad. For those of us that have been through several major hurricanes, we know what to do. But most of the people that live in Florida never have, and thousands more clueless people arrive every month. It is a major disaster (not to mimimize what just happened) waiting to happen, and it will happen.
Bill
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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There is a harshness in the post that also shows the lack of understanding of the younger generation. We had an elderly family member who lives in a senior retirement mobile home park. He was told to evacuate and his family begged and pleaded for him to come with them. He refused because his wife is dead. He said that he was not leaving his and her belolngings because if he lost that he would have nothing at all. He lucked out in that the storm did not go where it was said to go. However, those people born during the wars know the dangers but are motivated by other reasons rather than ignorance to remain with their belongings. We have to have compasion for them. The anger needs to be at the situation that allows any residential areas to be built in what is known to be an evacuation zone. Then look at Hardee Polk Highlands Counties and outguess the Great Physician.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Yes Guppie you are totally right.
People were warned. 9/11 was a tragedy, a friend of mine had a best friend that died in iraq we view that as tradgedy, the train driver sent to rescue the veterans + the veterans in the 1935 Cane was truely a tradgedy not this, was just a hurricane.
(Robert, my village lost 25 members during 9/11, of whom I personally knew three...let me tell you, it's hard going to funerals when there is NO BODY. DO NOT make another post like this last one...or it will be your last post, I can guarantee that)
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 14 2004 09:45 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Not good news for the northern Gulf Coast at this point...
.LONG TERM...UPR TROF TO FINALLY LIFT NEWD WITH RIDGING MOVING EWD
OVER ERN MID-WEEK. TIME TO LOOK EWD AT TD FIVE..POSITION
BRINGS IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND INTO NW CARIB DAY 5. TRACK LOOKS
OMINOUSLY LIKE BONNIE.
Everybody be prepared....
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Jason Kelley
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Thanks for the heads up.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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Well there is somthing to wake you up.
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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Earl is a TS in the 5PM advisory.
T's on Danielle are up to 3.5.
Bill
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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and 65 mph!
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Earl looks like trash. I am surprised they named it now. It looked better earlier. Danielle looks impressive but will be a fish.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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My heart goes out to any and all who lost family or friends due to . Seeing the pix on just makes it feel worse. You guys were (for the most part) great. I don't want to have to moderate during these times...
That being said, I have an itchy trigger finger tonight, and enough PM's encouraging me to edit sooner that I won't hesitate to do so...
From a personal perspective, my region is under a TS warning as we speak.. This hurricane is leaving his mark on the entire coastline.
Went down to Jones Beach (shout out to Richieweather...field six baby) this afternoon for a swim...mellow waves but expect things will get worse.
Earl and Danielle loom...not much time to rest. Behave, please!!! We haven't had any Isaroni's/Paloma's/Matthew's this season, but it's just a matter of time. Robert, I've got my eye on you...just go surf dude, it's cool...don't stir the pot.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Post on this page please...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Well said Thank You!
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Just Cancle My screen name phil im discusted i have no freedom.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hate to see you go. At least or spelllchcker won't suffer.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Aug 14 2004 11:29 PM)
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