Tropical Weather Discussion

( I will be posting the discussions here whenever the tropics become active)

FORECAST POSTED: 8/21/02/ 8:45 PM EDT

Tropical Weather Outlook:

We are monitoring a tropical wave in the western caribbean Sea. Development is not expected in the short term do to its proximity to land. If the wave moves into the Bay of Campeche, we may see some development over the weekend. Tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

Tropical Weather Discussion:

The tropics are slowly but surely becoming active. You can tell by just looking at the Atlantic infrared satellite. There is a lot more convection across the Atlantic basin and Africa. This is all in response to the negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moving in. The postive "dry" phase has moved farther east, away from the basin. As a result, conditions for development are becoming increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone formation in the Mean Development Region (Area from the Leeward Islands to the coast of Africa). What happens over the next two weeks will be crucial as far as my seasonal forecast goes.

The main focus tonight is the tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea. Conditions aren't all that unfavorable for development. However, the proximity to land will prevent any development for at least 2-3 days. This wave is forecasted to move west-northwest over the next few days. All of the models keep the wave over land. Now there is a chance that the wave could move into the Bay of Campeche. While this seems unlikely, we still have to watch it. However, this isn't a threat to the southeast. If this wave were to develop in the BOC this weekend, it would hit land south of Tampico.

We are monitoring a number of waves from the eastern Caribbean and along the across Africa. None of these waves appear to be showing signs of any development. But like I said, we are beginning to see an increase of convective activity across the MDR. There are two reasons for this...#1 There is less subsidence and #2 Shear values are below average. Now this will have to continue for at least a few weeks if we're going to have an above average season.

FORECASTER: Jason Moreland, TWWFT

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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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