rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Rabbit stew in a few days. is still heading mostly west, and the posts have been excellent. We all keep thinking "..in just a few hours more I will know where this is heading..."...yet we all know they are dynamic entities, subject to sudden changes. The Ridge is looking to be further west than forecast, and that is why I am looking for a westerly trend. we will see.
...so again...cat 5 Miami, then Mobile bound...
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Thanks for posting this but perhaps a little interpretation concerning this data would be meaningful to the viewers.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Not to ruin your wonderful analysis or the suspense of your findings but it looks like the may have nudge left again..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'll gladly eat crow with my Hattaras call, because after Hattaras, it's up towards LI & NE. No thank you. I hate to say this, but I've been calling this one for a week, and I see less reason to change. So Rabbit's on board with me. Going to be a ride...all you in Florida don't let your guard down for one minute.
And Rick, it's getting tiresome, OK?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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12Z of the is out and it shows a path thru the bahamas and into WPB (area) and across the state around 310dg near Tampa. This is consistant with the past run.
96hour is 100 miles east of WPB near Freeport BAH and moving NW. ( note also again at the start of this that by 8pm eastern tonight it has near 22N already, if this is already initialized as a early jump before its real movement, the placement of the hurricane might be 50-75 miles more sw of where the plots are) This might be then in agreement with the position 96hrs out just offshore of WPB. 1 more update to come. scottsvb
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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I'm calling Georgia / South Carolina border.
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Brad
Unregistered
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"what the models are now plotting does not conform to the Herbert Box theory that any storm that passes below 20degreees N/ 60 degrees W would invariably affect southern Florida."
Hebert's theory - or whatever it's called - did NOT say that any storm in the box (which I believe is bordered by 15 & 20 N, and 55 & 60 W) would "invariably" (inevitably?) affect South Florida. Instead, Hebert noted that most intense hurricanes that affect South Florida and come from the east have passed in or near that box. However, the converse is NOT true; in other words, most storms that pass through that box do NOT affect South Florida. Thus, statistically speaking, although a storm going in the area of that box is more likely to affect S. Fla. than one that doesn't go through that box, it does not come close to being a guarantee. -Brad
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Brad
Unregistered
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Clark or anyone else with the info:
Anybody know what the Superensemble is showing today? Any change from yesterday afternoon's S.Fla. forecast? Thanks.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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GFS 120 showing it just offshore Daytona beach by 20 miles (about) and parreling the coast of florida. For what its worth the has her going up the bahama chain and staying well off the coast of florida, this model (though not out of the question) usually doesnt handle movement of tropcial systems that well as seen in the last many runs. It has been all over the place. Just waiting on the Ukmet run to figure out the whole package, will post later.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hopefully this will help:
000
URNT12 KNHC 311114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1114Z
B. 19 DEG 56 MIN N
63 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2649 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 105 DEG 138 KT
G. 023 DEG 21 NM
H. 950 MB
I. 11 C/ 3092 M
J. 19 C/ 3088 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A OB 27
MAX FL WIND 138 KT N QUAD 1107Z. SMALL HAIL OUTBOUND SOUTHWEST
EYEWALL.
Here's how to read it:
Bulletin Identifier
A. Date and time of fix
B. Latitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes
Longitude of the vortex fix in degrees and minutes
C. Minimum height of a standard pressure level, given in meters
D. Estimate of maximum surface wind observed in knots
E. Bearing and range from center of the maximum surface wind
F. Maximum flight level wind near storm center
G. Bearing and range from center of maximum flight level wind
H. Minimum sea level pressure computed from dropsonde or extrapolation
I. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, OUTSIDE the eye
J. Maximum flight level temperature in Celsius / Pressure altitude in meters, INSIDE the eye
K. Dewpoint temperature in Celsius / Sea surface temperature in Celsius inside the eye
L. Eye character
M. Eye shape orientation and diameter
N. Fix determined by / fix level
O. Navigation fix accuracy in nm / Meteorological accuracy in nm
P. Remarks Section
That's probably the most productive thing I've done today. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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No wobbles in this satellite image. Still moving west, but there is now a northern component.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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WV loop
note the general WNW movement and the upper low to the west
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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With that said, will inevitably impact the weather for the entire state one way or the other.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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AAAKKK! has Her sitting over Grand Bahama island for like 18 hours, then moves her WNW towards Melbourne but leaves her right on the coastline then moves her slowwwwwly up the coast (on the coast) Finally coming in at JAX. I recant my previous statement and apologize. This is not justification for a right shift of the track. Slightly left again I think if uses the . NEXT RUN PLEASE!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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What's weird is that when you pull up the satellite image for the Western Atlantic and Caribbean, it already shows OUT of the 20 box. So, is the Goes not updated or what?
No arguing over the northward movement, just check out the other satellite look and it still looks like it's stairstepping.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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It probably is--I've heard on numerous times that hurricanes dont generally move in straight lines, they wobble
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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So what you're saying is that the latest model runs are no good? Please 'splain, my friend. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Running a long range radar loop from San Juan over a few hours shows a general westerly movement with a tinge to the north. Not quite WNW more W but close to WNW.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Hopefully I am speaking to the choir. The bottomline for those who live on FL east coast and are reading these boards wondering what to do or not do, is to begin preparing NOW; this does not mean panic....get some supplies...check your shutters/bolts/plywood......and sometimes take a break from these boards... watching the tennis match in the models can drive you nuts....remember what you do now can also help you next month...when the peak of the season begins!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, me too. Especially with an eye as big as ', it might be hard to discern between a "wobble" and an actual track change. Jeez, I'm getting a headache. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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