wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I have been riding a West Palm Beach landfall since this weekend, and I see little reason to diverge from that right now.
Second Gulf landfall? If I am right, then probably so, very near my (and your) area. I am still not comfortable with this yet...but I am starting to get more concerned about this thing getting in the Gulf too.
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Jason Kelley
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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I think stewert has been reading my forcasts the last few days on here,,lmao jk but they are almost word to word that i say. Its just a joke of course cause im sure the and him are seeing the overall picture like i am.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I figure Hurricane Watches for FL East coast by 5am Thursday morning?
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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I better spell his name right stewart,...duh!
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Brad
Unregistered
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Someone - I think wxmanrichie(sp?) - wrote: "My take - Just remember that 90% of all major hurricanes that go through Hebert's box hit Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties down the road as major hurricanes."
Again, I want to dispel incorrect information regarding Hebert's box/square. I am confident that the above statement regarding the 90% figure is incorrect. As far as I know, the 1928 hurricane and David are major hurricanes that hit S. Fla. after traveling through the box, but I'm not sure if they were even major hurricanes when they went through the box. (The above-quoted language suggests that being cat 3+ while in the box is one of the criteria -- not sure if that was intentional.) Andrew was outside the box, although close to it, and was not a major hurricane (was it a hurricane at all?) at the time.
I don't know of any others that have passed through the box and struck South Florida as majors. So that's 2 that fit the criteria, 3 if you count Andrew; it's not even mathematically possible to come up with a number of "misses" that would make that 90% figure correct.
And there's a reason for that: it isn't correct. Many storms pass through the box without affecting South Florida. Some of those storms pass through the box as major hurricanes.
Passing through the box does correlate to a higher chance of a South Florida hit, and a hit by a major (which makes sense based on location - north of the islands but not too far north, SE of S. Fla., etc.), but it's not a 90% guarantee or anything close to it.
I think Hebert's box/square has become the stuff of urban legend.
-Brad
it is misinformation (probably not deliberate). should read something like 90% of majors that hit the three SE florida counties from the atlantic side went through the box, not the converse. of course half that go through the box probably miss the east coast, and the remainder hit elsewhere. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 01 2004 03:53 AM)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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GFS 00Z is starting to come in..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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More about Hebert's Box here:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/reports/070603box.html
And it seems that the criteria is it must be a major hurricane when it passes through this box. Not a major hurricane then it isn't even factored into the equation.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Wed Sep 01 2004 03:49 AM)
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Thanks for the quick reply Jason. I basically agree with your West Palm Beach landfall, maybe just a few miles north of there but thats just my opinion. I guess we just gotta wait and see what the trough in the plains will do to the ridge. If the ridge is stronger than forecast that could pose a problem for the Gulf Coast after she makes landfall. Im starting to become alittle concerned. Whew, what a week its been so far, and its only gonna get more hectic.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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The way the models are trending-I'm afraid we're going to see a double landfall. I think she may reach the Gulf after hitting S. Florida. Tomorrow will be very interesting to see how things are trending!
This season is going down in History-that's for sure!
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Brad
Unregistered
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Based on HF's comment, I should clarify: I definitely did not mean to accuse anyone of making a deliberate misstatement or of trying to hype anything up. To the contrary, I think whoever posted the Hebert's stat believed it, and was trying to convey helpful information, which of course is a great thing. I just wanted to point out what portion of it I thought was incorrect, although well-intended.
-Brad
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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102 hr
Post more as it comes in....
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Wed Sep 01 2004 04:22 AM)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Loc:
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Jason,
greetings from Orlando.
Can you possibly make this thing go away? Please.....
Two hurricanes in 3 weeks......and this one is going to be a slow wet windy one.
Central Florida has been so fortunate for so many years.
All I can think of to say is: YIKES.......SOS....
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Looks like a just south of the Cape hit, moves very much like the track thru 3-4 days; also has a WNW turn to go into the state.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Actually, as it is coming in....it slows to a crawl and then rides the coastline just inland thru JAX and into SE Ga...just another wrinkle...
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Jason Kelley
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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And, something I'm getting so tired of seeing, it then turns north and runs up the coast inland . My house again!!  We may have a in the other direction. A bunch of towns and cities along the coast, trying to figure out where she's going to pass inland. Then everybody north of that point deals with her. But no crossing of the state. SE Georgia takes it from FL. I'm begining to believe in this track just a little, I've seen it in one form or another for 2 days now. The sooner she goes inland, the better for N FL, but if it's a late turn, we may still have a Cat 2-3 to deal with.....
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Yeah well it looks like when it comes in to the state around vero it travels up the middle of state into GA.. The worse thing about this scenario is that Hurricane Force winds will be felt on both sides of the coast.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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It seems a bit slow in getting there doesn't it.I'm just playing with the speed of 15mph on it extrap would be there in about 60hrs.I used 13 degrees W and 6 degrees N.simple trig.The must really see a slow down coming.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Its hard to see but just think over Freeport-west palm it just goes stationary almost as a ridge builds over it,,then moves around the ridge into the florida near Melbourne then north into se Ga. But for 24 hours it moves about 40 miles. I feel bad for anyone on the coast if this is only off by 25-40 miles to the west of where its shown near 79W and 27N.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Yep..GFS slows it to a crawl before landfall....
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Jason Kelley
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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I agree on the discussion at 11PM, amazingly written. What I don't understand is the track. Hurricanes just do not do what they are proposing. I don't know, it's just an odd looking track with the stop and the immediate movement in another direction. I am becoming more and more concerned here in New Orleans about a Florida east coast landfall and a movement towards the Gulf. I still am fairly confident that if it does get into the Gulf it's a Mobile eastward problem, but I just hate it when they get into the Gulf! I just hope something changes, because this is going to be one for the history books if it makes a US landfall, which at this point is almost a given.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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