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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Frances in the Morning
      #22437 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:00 AM

3PM Update
Frances still on track currently, an eyewall replacement cycle for the storm is currently underway... update at 5 to come.


Big Image

11AM Update
Hurricane Warnings are up for the Central Bahamas now.


(Image thanks to Skeetobite)

Forecast track remains similar to earlier today, and because of the size of the storm we might be seeing Hurricane Watches along the coast as early as tonight or tomorrow morning and warnings on Friday. It's still important to watch trends as it moves.

Original Update
Hurricane Frances is moving west northwest toward the southern Bahama Islands today. Frances is expected to take a more northwesterly course on Friday toward the central Florida peninsula.

Her winds are currently at 140mph with gusts to 170mph - a Category IV hurricane. While some fluctuation in intensity is likely over the next couple of days, I now expect landfall in the Stuart to Fort Pierce area at 5am on Saturday morning with winds of 145mph gusting to 175mph. [This does not mean people outside this area should let their guard down - mike]

Frances should pass 25 to 30 miles southwest of Melbourne at 4pm Saturday afternoon - winds at that time near the center should be 115mph gusting to 140mph with winds in the Melbourne area and along the beaches at 100mph gusting to 125mph.

The storm should be near Ocala at 11am on Sunday with winds down to 60mph gusting to 75mph at that time. Frances will become a slow moving storm over the peninsula, so expect an extended period of high winds and heavy rain. Flooding conditions can be expected with rainfall amounts of six to ten inches. Rain squalls are likely to continue on Sunday as the hurricane weakens and slowly moves to the north. I'll update this if any significant changes should occur.

I urge you to take necessary actions now in order to prepare for this hurricane.

- ED


(Image thanks to Skeetobite)



Although things can change, confidence is starting to go up on this scenario. Check tonight again.

If evacuations were necessary I'd expect to start hearing about them late Thursday or during Friday. Barrier islands along the Florida east coast from maybe as far south as Dade/Broward to north as Volusia could be evacuated, so be aware. Listen to local media and officials at this point. There still is some time for this to change.

The potential for a prolonged period with hurricane conditions is concerning.

- Mike

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22440 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:23 AM

On the graphic that shows several of the model tracks, the NHCA9BE Model (Yellow) it looks like it has the hurricane track doubling back on itself. Anybody make any sense of this?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif


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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22442 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:30 AM

The StormCarib site has an interesting tool that lets you key in your lat. and long. and takes the current forecast storm positions to show you how close the eye of the storm will get to you and when. It draws a map of the current track projection with your location highlighted. Looks like I'll only be 55 miles from the eye Saturday night. Here's the URL for the Closest Point of Approach tool:

http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

Which quadrant of this storm is expected to have the most/least rain and highest/lowest winds? Just wondering if we'll be on the best or worst side of this as it approaches and passes us. Thanks.

--------------------
Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: cjzydeco]
      #22443 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:36 AM

Looking at the UKMET model, it seems to me that that model is taking it over some of the more populated areas in Fla...(MCO, TPA and then into the GOM with the last frame being the most sinister taking it right near to New Orleans.)

In looking at the different tracks, what's the history of accuracy of the UKMET and the GFDL? :?:

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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Cathy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22444 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:38 AM

As I look out my window, as far as I can see down my street, there are shoulder high piles of limbs and debris yet to be removed. I also see "brown patches" up high in the oaks - obviously dead limbs yet to fall. I wonder how much more damage these flying objects will cause?

My insurance agent advised that if we reported a claim from Charley and were hit again by Frances we would have 2 deductibles. She explained that if we were robed on tuesday and again on friday, that would also be two claims / deductibles. I suppose that makes sense, but at 5% of total coverage, for us that make it about $8000 a pop!

Last time I lost power for 8 days - planning for it again in Polk County Florida.

Thanks to all for keeping this board running and pertinent!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: A98E model-backtrack [Re: cjzydeco]
      #22445 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:38 AM

Yes, I saw it too. I have the text model in front of me and it Does backtrack.
Possibly a human interface data input error.
9/5 00Z 25.7 79.0
9/6 00Z 22.3 70.1
I've seen some strange misprints with this storm, but Not This Strange.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: danielw]
      #22447 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:46 AM

The latest Vortex has concentric eyewalls. Inner at 22nm and outer at 50nm. Other than maintaining her present strength, should we expect any changes from this rare pattern?

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE Frances WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
OR 780 MILES...1260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.


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Fingers1116
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Mobile, Al
Re: A98E model-backtrack [Re: danielw]
      #22448 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:47 AM

Hey all. Been reading forum for 2 years, and decided to go ahead and join. I was wondering who else, other than myself thinks there is a strong possibility she could re-emerge into the GOM and cause a major problem for the N Central Gulf Caost? Say between NO and Panama City?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Fingers1116]
      #22450 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:05 AM

Well at least the UKMET model does, and the GFS did over last weekend.
I checked back to the text tropical models on 8/29 at 00Z.
The BAMD and BAMM have the best success of the 4 tropical models. Both being close to the actual NHC position.
BAMM has the best track record the last 2 days, in the 48 and 72 hour forecasts.
It was 0.0/ 0.8E off at 48 hours. About 52nm.
and....0.3S/ 0.6E off at 72 hrs. About 38nm


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: A98E model-backtrack [Re: Fingers1116]
      #22451 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:16 AM

Quote:

Hey all. Been reading forum for 2 years, and decided to go ahead and join. I was wondering who else, other than myself thinks there is a strong possibility she could re-emerge into the GOM and cause a major problem for the N Central Gulf Caost? Say between NO and Panama City?


First, welcome. As to your question, we in the OFFICIAL forecast area should discount models for the most part and concentrate on the probable fact of a hit as forecast. However, I see you are out of the area so, models are still a useful tool. There are good and often reliable models that suggest just your scenereo, so, keep tuned to this bat-channel and start considering your options IF that model suddenly becomes forecast. By the way, wake my sleepyhead son who also lives in Mobile and tell him to sober up and watch the weather news <grin>.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Fingers1116
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Mobile, Al
Re: A98E model-backtrack [Re: Ricreig]
      #22452 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:34 AM

Thanks . . .Guess even we up here on the Coast need to keep a close eye on her. I do hope and pray that none of our Cyclone Watcher friends in S.F. have to go thru another one so soon, but that is beginninmg to look inevitable. We'll be praying for all of you up here that's for sure.

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Dani
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: AmateurJohn]
      #22453 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:35 AM

That projection does not work - no matter what you enter it says 0?

Am I doing something wrong?


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #22454 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:36 AM

Nice, but try to explain in laymen terms MCO, TPA.
Thanks.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #22455 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 AM

Quote:

Nice, but try to explain in laymen terms MCO, TPA.
Thanks.




MCO = Orlando International Airport -- name comes from its former use as McCoy Air Force Base

TPA - Tampa


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #22457 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:52 AM

Quote:

Nice, but try to explain in laymen terms MCO, TPA.
Thanks.


Those are the airline identifiesrs of ORLANDO, TAMPA (PIE=FtLauderdae), JAX=JacksonvilleFL, VRB=Vero Beach, MIA-Miami and so on. Most people, having traveled via air recognize their own and destination, but I agree, the others may only be meaningful to other pilots. ORL is Orlando Executive near where I reside but the International 'Orlando' airport is MCO as it used to be McCoy AFB until the city gained control of it.Often, lat/long coordinates are those of near by airports so when you go to your weather page of your local city, you will often be getting the lat/long of a nearby airport serving that city. My MLB (Melbourne) is the regional center around here and MCO and ORL are for Orlando area. DAB, JAX, OCF...these are also about to be affected by Frances.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Wed Sep 01 2004 08:55 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: danielw]
      #22461 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM

Assuming the BAM pakages(BAMM, BAMD, BAMS, LBAR) which are closely linked to the NHC, have been the moseliable in this system then expect the track to shift south and west again.
Actually searching today for the point of convergence between the eastern most influence otf the ULL and the western most subtropical ridge,which is where the storm will go in my opinion, gives credence to the UKMET and NOGAPS solutions.
The key for me today is the progress and transformation of the ULL which is now centered directly south of Florida, and the progress the storm has on pushjing that further west and south. So far the storm has elongated this ULL NE/SW, but there is still a point of vorticity just south of the tip of the peninsula.. As that point continues westward it serves to leave behind a ridge effect.

--------------------
doug


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22462 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM

06Z GFS Model Run Nudged to the east a little. This model run has the eye hugging the coast to GA/SC landfall. Doesnt really mean much, but we shall see..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22463 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:09 AM

pardon my ignorance but what's going on with the ULL and the other high that's building to the west?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Dani]
      #22465 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:19 AM

That's strange, Dani. When I click on the link in my message, the tool pops up but without the 5-day forecast coordinates populated. Try this: go to the site's home page at http://stormcarib.com . Scroll down a little till you see the red bar titled Weather Discussions and Local Reports. Right under the red bar you'll see a link to How Close Can It Get? If you click on that link, you should get the CPA report with the forecast coordinates populated. Just enter your coordinates in the box on the left and click on the Show Me button. Does that work?

--------------------
Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: doug]
      #22466 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:20 AM

Doug, I think you *also* need to look at the vapor loop this morning...it shows a big (probably) ULL to the EAST of Frances. Something is out there and *may* affect the track, but if you are currently in the forecast area, you *hope* the ULL's do move it away from you but are foolish to do more than hope it does. One has to plan for the probabilities, not the possibiliies with this short amount of time remaining. Right now, my tin box is in the middle of a forecast area for CAT III or higher winds in a shade more than 2.7 days. I hope the path forecasted is wrong, but I'll not count on it and thank my mker if it does move away. My prayers then go for those new souls that are affected.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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