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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast
      #22856 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:35 PM

Hurricane Watches are up from Florida City (in extreme south mainland Florida) to Flagler Beach (Including Lake Okechobee)-- Topical Storm watch for the northern Keys. This means that hurricane conditions may be felt within 36 hours. A hurricane Warning may be issued sometime tomorrow for a more specific area.

Hurricane Warnings are up for all of the Bahama Islands as well.



The image below is based on the NHCs track, deviations may occur! Thanks Skeetobite


The hurricane is still a strong category four storm, and the forecast track of Frances remains similar to the last track. If I would pick a model based on performance, it would be the NOGAPS. However, confidence is still not where I'd like it. Again, the track remains mostly the same as the previous one... the hint in the 11PM NHC Discussion is that it may go more west. Mainly because of the high altitude Gulf Stream IV Jet's contributions to model initializations. The discussion is a good read this evening. It is not good for Florida.

Follow local instructions from media and officials in your area if affected, you may also want to view the popup advisory main page to see local storm statements.
Scenes repeated all over East Florida:

Line for Plywood

Lack of water
(Images from "Haggins")

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:

Melbourne (East Central Florida)
Miami (South Florida)
Jacksonville (North Florida)
Key West (Florida Keys)

It may take some time for the statements to propigate.

Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.

Definitely more to come later...

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #22864 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 PM

I have been at work all day and have read all the posts and listened to a lot of rumors from people who may or may not know what is going on.
Please explain where the consensus of landfall is expected to be and where it will be if it goes right or left. Central Florida, and specifically Polk County, tends to get ignored from both of the Media coming from Tampa Bay and Orlando. We have been protected in the past some what but the rumors are flying about our vulnerability this time. Please anyone who has any knowledge please comment.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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indialanticwes
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #22868 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:47 PM

When the discussion uses words such as "disturbing", you've got to be concerned.

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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: indialanticwes]
      #22870 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 PM

When will new model runs come out?

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #22871 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 PM

Read the NHC advisories and discussions, Stacy Stewart's discussion is carefully crafted as always and hits the nail on the head. They don't know.

Bill


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: BillD]
      #22875 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 PM

Been trying to just moderate but gotta chirp in...Bill's right...they just don't know. Damndest storm to predict I've EVER seen. Approximately 40-50 million people are at potential risk, less than 4 days away, and we still don't really know where it's going...jezis...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: BillD]
      #22882 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 PM

I put up all of the hurricane panels this evening...sigh, for the second time in three weeks. Never thought that would happen. This time I am leaving them up for awhile...don't care if the home owner's assoc. says anything! I live on Merritt Island between Melbourne and Cocoa Beach. We live at one of the highest points on the island would take a strong Cat 5 to flood us, and the house was just built to very strong standards and we have Cat 5 rated panels. We are planning to stay unless the eye is to pass very near. The way I see it...the entire east coast of FL is going to be on the roads. I would rather be in my strongly constructed house than stuck on the road...(when we left for Floyd it took 8 hours to go 40 miles to Orlando. And for all we know maybe Orlando will be hit worse than us. Guess I just need to wait to see what the track shows tomorrow night to make the final decision.

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: LI Phil]
      #22884 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:04 PM

WHAT DO YOU THINK JASON? how did the bad data in early models get in?
could there be a more west track possible by 2?

**the NOGAPS been pretty on?


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: LI Phil]
      #22885 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:05 PM

That is provided she slows down,with the ridge stronger than anticipated she continues WNW at a decent clip.I believe this is the reasoning for the watches 36hrs.I mention this last nite in the forum that at 15mph on her course it is a S FL event in 60hrs. 24hrs have passed.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
stewart's piece [Re: BillD]
      #22886 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:07 PM

what the guy says usually carries more weight, because he EXPLAINS the forecast reasoning, not just an issuance of statements. first convincing argument i've heard from the NHC for the central florida track they've been pointing to for the last day or two.
with the explanation of why the half of the forecast models i was betting on are possibly in error.. my track confidence (to georgia) is down quite a bit. going down with the ship, as far as that goes.. a lot less to wreck in coastal ga though, it is perhaps the best of options.
my earlier comments notwithstanding, if i was on the florida coast from west palm to st. augustine, i would be ready to evacuate by tomorrow afternoon. everybody out of the pool. if the storm does make a gulf appearance (even a brief one in apalachee bay) the damage swath will be extended quite a bit, though i doubt the gulf side of florida would get near the hurt the atlantic side would.
the eye symmetry is improving, and as stewart mentioned the lower humidity environment that may have been checking Frances is becoming a thing of the past. expect the storm to deepen overnight, 8-12mb or so.
elsewhere, 97L did get tagged a 1.0, and it's convection is still refiring with vigor.. it has been an unclassified depression, perhaps NHC will take the plunge if it can get out of the high shear environment somewhat intact. most globals recurving it, but i'm entertaining the idea of a mostly westward track.
98L may develop more quickly than 97L. deep convection is maintaining with this feature. global runs tending to take it to the caribbean.. or at least close.
weak disturbance near the nc coast may be the one caveat that can right-bias Frances. not holding my breath, and not wishcasting it, but i'm not one to ignore possibilities, even remote ones.
synopsis.. Frances crow may be appearing on my menu for friday.. likely another storm or two by early next week.. and a very dangerous situation for florida, if it comes to pass, inside 72 hours.
HF 0306z02september

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:22 AM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: mikeG]
      #22889 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:11 PM

It really doesn't matter how it got in...the fact that they have recognized it now is very important...we'll have to see how the GFS responds...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: h2ocean]
      #22891 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:12 PM

H2Ocean, I don't think that I would wait that long. Unless you have provisions for a week stored up. Last time I checked your area had the highest probability of the center passing within 65 miles. Ft Myers and Venice were in this same boat with Charley. They consistantly carried higher probs than Tampa. Don't wait too late. You can rebuild, if you have to.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
From the other forum [Re: danielw]
      #22894 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:17 PM

Just was informed (thanx scottsvb) that we're in the new forum...anyhoo...here's what I had to say back there, as I feel going on record (so far) is needed:

>>> I am now thinking more and more that this thing may get in the GOM (sorry Phil)....

>>> be to quick to count out the GOM either Mr. Phil

>>> Lil Phil, Not to be rude or anything as you are much older and wiser then me but I dont agree with you saying the Gulf isnt a possibility for a second landfall.

You guys are placing WAY too much faith in little ol' me. Two posts ago I said three possibilties...SFL->GOM; EC FL into GA, and Turn to north.

I wanted to try to narrow it down, and that was the elimination of the GOM & north theories...not at ALL saying no to anything yet...that's what's so frustrating.

Still will stick by no gulf hit, but is that set in stone? NO WAY.

This is going to drive us all NUTS for the next 24-48 hours.

Right now, I'm looking for some experts like Rabbit & scottsvb to post...they will have more answers than I do.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
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Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: LI Phil]
      #22895 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:17 PM

Is this what Stewart is saying? Models they were using to forecast the subtropical high had bad info, thus the model trends to the right. Now he's expecting a shift back to the west on the 00Z run. I don't like the two "disturbing" comments he made in both his 5pm and 11pm discussion.

BTW...what time is 00Z in laymen's terms?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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TAZRACER
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Loc: Latimer MS
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22897 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:23 PM

I agree w/ JAVLIN on his post south fl then maybe GOM

--------------------
Taz racer


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
ZULU/UTC time [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22898 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:24 PM

explanation

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22899 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:24 PM

Ahh i see why jason and clark missed my question to them. New thread up. Anyways Jason...Clark? Still alittle confused on what Stewart ment on data being in the OZ run and Adv for 6 Z,,,, is the data in the OZ run of theGFS now? or will be in the 6Z runs? TY

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
Locat met has me sitting up and paying closer attention... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22900 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:25 PM

Basically he said he is waiting for the new track to come out, but he is expecting to see the track west and south of the track now. Then he goes on to say Francis will emerge into the GOM and could be a threat in my general area which is Mobile, AL....no I do not share Rick's ideas...LOL...Anyone else see the possibility?

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22901 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 PM

The 00Z run contains correct data...the previous runs (apparently) contained data with heights that were on average 20 meters too low.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Hurricane Watches up for the Florida East Coast [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22902 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 PM

I think they have a very good idea of where Frances "might" go, but now that they have realized the models were even slightly screwed up (it only takes a little) they don't trust anything (and they shouldn't).

Just subtract 4 from Z time to get EDT (subtract 5 to get EST when we are not on daylight savings). So 00Z is 20 (24 - 4) or 8PM EDT. It depends on the model, but most come out within 2 - 4 hours of their "time". Some models used to be held back from the public for a few extra hours, not sure if they do that now or not.

Bill


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