mikeG
Unregistered
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http://antares.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_wv_loop.html
danielw
what do you think about this wv loop?
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rjp
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Charleston, SC
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Well, it is forecasting it to move faster than it was previously.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Skeeto: From looking at the dot on the map you posted (MS Street & Trips? Looks familiar....), the secret lab looks almost like it's being hosted in the computer lab at Lake Gibson High. ;-) If you're near there, please take care of it - I might have a job there in about 2 weeks (if it's still there and I'm still here!)
Went to Wal-Mart in Mulberry this afternoon...no major panic then (~1pm), but definitely the water and batteries got hammered good. Then went to State Farm and signed up for renter's insurance. Figured it certainly couldn't hurt, all things considered. (Just got married in June, and wife never had renters on her place [which is now my place], so it's a good idea anyway). Must have been at least 20 people waiting in line for renter's today. Course, now that warnings are up in Florida, I bet they're not issuing policies any more, which is why I went this afternoon....
Going to be standing first in line tomorrow morning at 9am at Home Depot in Brandon to [hopefully] pick up Plylocks - all stores are sold out in Lakeland, and Brandon said they expect a shipment tonight for the morning; hopefully true, as this time around we're going to try and put up plywood on the two small windows, and pray on the glass doors (since complex won't let us put up nails, and there's nothing on the glass doors for the plylocks to "bite" into....).
Think we're not going to dodge this one in western Polk this time. Repeating the drill by bringing grandfather and mother out of their mobile homes to stay with us in the apartment.
Hope everyone everywhere is safe and sound. I used to live in Ft. Lauderdale for 18 years, got real used to the drill of putting the metal panelling up and hunkering down. Now that I'm older, and hopefully wiser, if I was there and saw heading in my general direction, I'd be considering leaving the area for safer ground. Even as it is, wife and I are dubiously watching and a little uneasy in the apartment complex, but we're in it for the long haul. If were on our side of the state, I doubt I'd be staying in the apartment. Still, it's nerve-wracking, and I'm trying to keep my mother and wife calm and not panicked.
Take all precautions, make all arrangements, and do what needs to be done to make it through safe. Oh -- and don't wait for Friday to come to decide what to do. Better to be silly for having overreacted tomorrow than the be sorry for having not acted Friday night when the highways could be clogged solid.
God bless all,
Londovir
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Thru 48 hrs....
Basically landfalls in 48 hrs south of MLB...very near WPB
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Jason Kelley
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rjp
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Charleston, SC
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It certainly did change! Going all the way up to NC?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_108l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_114l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_126l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_132l.gif
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Link for realtime Current Traffic Counts in FL.
TurnPike in Osceola County is Already near Double the historical vehicle count.
http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/?CountyID=10&StationID=0110
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Nogaps coming in thru 60 hours,,still same with landfall near WPB in 60 hours. 12 hrs positioning might be off. Will know by morning. I feel 6z though will be more w and then the 12Z might get inline with . Still waiting for Ukmet.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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StormHound -- actually, the Superensemble is nothing more than a least squares method of finding the biases in each of the member models (GFS, , etc) and determining a track forecast based off of the expected least errors in each of the tracks. A least squares fit isn't exactly an average, but it's a means of getting a weighted average sort of thing.
There is no special data that goes into it that doesn't go into the other models; that's what makes the left bias it has exhibited for several days now so striking, in that it picked up on the tendencies of the models to the point that any leftward shift in those tracks will send the Superensemble a bit further left as well.
That graphic on the front page about the crossing tracks is very telling. You see where they intersect? That's directly over my place in Orlando. Reports from that region say that items are at a high premium even now, particularly at Wal-Mart where they can't even get things onto the shelf before people take it out.
To clarify a point about the poor initializations of the /GFDL models...the 00Z runs will have that new data into them, but it's still up to the models to initialize it correctly. It may well assign a minimal weight to that data and go with something lower anyway -- that's what they have been doing. It shows why you cannot rely on the models solely and must use meteorological intuition -- several here have noticed the greater strength of the ridge and kept it on a more westerly/southerly track. Unfortunately, the is very much tied to the models these days; it's partially the trend in forecasting and partially political/governmental pressure. But, the past two discussions have been very nice departures from a straight-up model discussion, and I would not be shocked to see the 5a track shifted further west...and a much slower weakening of the storm over land. It'll be moving fast and will take a decent amount of time to spin down; I think 40mph near Gainesville is severely underestimating things.
More as I read through the thread...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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john03
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 020345
97779 03454 50189 67000 56100 99005 54/// /4589
RMK AF985 1606A OB 01
recon is up.....betting on cat 5
and pressure...935 and winds of 165 at fl lev
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Max Mayfield showed and compared the sizes of and on our 11 pm news. is 4-5 times bigger than in total size. WOW!!!!! This big storm may rake the whole state and slow down considerably. Hurricane Andrew's dollar damage record could be in serious trouble. I have now added a link to my own personal backyard weather station here in Boynton Beach. Hopefully my power will remain on as long as possible so that it can report for you all. If the power does fail, I will be personally calling LI Phil to relay my wind speeds, rainfall and pressure readings for him to post.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Staying in an apartment until the house is done. The secret lab is in a vault off site (of course). These apartments seem nice. About a year old. Hope the building inspector was on his game!
Trying to stay away from highschools. Although, that was the best 6 years of my life...
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Pam in Vero
Unregistered
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From what I understand they stop issuing policies as soon as a warning is issued in your area
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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To quote LI Phil. "Don't bet or wish for things...they might come true". Or something along that line.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Maybe it is an error magnified over time, but out to 126 hours, it is about to make landfall in southern N.C. There is also a very strong high to the north, so the windfield could be a little like Isabel. Even though I have been looking for it to hit farther north and east, this is almost too much for me to think is likely.
That strong high and trough is really turning it on the . At this point, with a couple of runs in a row showing this trend, it might soon need to be considered as an alternative.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm confused now...is this what the models are saying or what you are saying?
Are you expecting it to stall out and sit out there for 18 hours or are you thinking of landfall sooner rather than later?
Sorry for all the dumb questions..just a lot of info being thrown out there that I don't understand. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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fred08
Unregistered
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North-Bound Counter 0317 on I-75 in MARION County, near OCALA - Polling HOURLY;
2500 vph
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Quote:
From what I understand they stop issuing policies as soon as a warning is issued in your area
I work for a commercial ins. co here in alabama....we cannot write property policies as of today. We expect that when a system is in the GOM, but we are confused by this. Oh well...time will tell.
Southern4sure
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Mr. Spock -- I'll concur with Jamie's reply a few posts up from here on his comments to your post. I jut don't agree with the solution myself, either.
What we are seeing over the east central US right now is called trough fracture. Essentially, three days ago, there was a very sharp trough located across the region, moving towards the subtropical ridge. However, the recurvature of Gaston and track of served to enhance the ridge (in addition to an amplified pattern leading to ridge enhancement as well). You can see historically a number of cases where recurving tropical cyclones strengthen the ridge beneath them for some time.
Now, that trough has split into two pieces, as it could not make it through the ridge. The northern portion is going the way of Gaston and making little or no southward progress. The southern portion, with a weak ULL in Alabama/Mississippi, is moving every so slowly northward around the periphery of the ridge as well. There is no further energy to drive into this ridge until the system in the Pacific NW makes it across the country...and it is at a fairly high latitude now as it is.
A strong storm like is going to gradually turn a bit to the north with time -- Coriolis and other dynamical effects say it will -- but I'm not sure I buy it slamming into the ridge and stalling like it has forecasted to date. What worries me is that the has done the best of all models through yesterday with the 120hr forecast, with errors between 100-150mi. It'll either no longer be there in a few days, or it will have solidly beat the other models.
Note about the Eta -- the storm only recently has entered it's grid domain (it only covers part of the Atlantic). It gets its boundary conditions (what is going on at the edge of the domain) from the . Thus, until just the past couple of runs, it has been heavily influenced by the model output -- as have a number of the other models. We'll see how long that lasts.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Nogaps landfall near WPB or just N of there in 60 hrs then exiting near Sarasta in 84hrs. Moving wnw. I would agree more with this path and its showing the same ridging with the . Lets see what the Ukmet shows for this run. Anyone have it yet cause I dont.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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That traffic site is particularly telling; if it's not exaggerating numbers somehow, there's anywhere from 3-5 TIMES the average historical traffic on most of the northbound east coast highways yesterday. People are definitely getting out, which I think is a good thing. I was afraid after that some people, despite the obvious damage we could all see, would also take the attitude of "the says it's coming right at us, so it's going to turn at the last second away from us", and stay put.
Oh well, off to bed. Have to get some sleep before I start hopping hardware stores tomorrow morning searching for plylocks....
Londovir
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