Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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I just did the math, and *if* it keeps up at it's current rate of speed, it will be just about 41 miles ese of WPB this time tomorrow night.
Is the still counting on a slowing forward motion?
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john03
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 020415
97779 04154 50204 69010 56100 21018 5465/ /4588
RMK AF985 1606A OB 02
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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What time to the next models come out?
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Bloodstar
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Quote:
URNT11 KNHC 020415
97779 04154 50204 69010 56100 21018 5465/ /4588
RMK AF985 1606A OB 02
Would someone mind explaining what this means to us people who can't figure any of this out? 
Mark
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scottsvb1
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Colleen tomorrow night as in now Friday night, yeah possibly.
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Colleen A.
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I think they are coming out right now from what I can gather from Scott and Jason.
A comment about Jim Cantore: he must read this board because at 9:30 he said, "I'm here in Daytona, but that does NOT MEAN that is where the storm is coming." 
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Clark
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Looking at the initlializations of the 500mb pattern, I'm not sure it's got a full grasp on the strength of the ridge still. It has the overall pattern right, but the ridge is more than likely stronger in the west Atlantic than advertised (and stronger than it is in the east Atlantic). But, that's just my intuition.
Evacuations -- follow the advice of your local emergency managers. The maps on FloridaDisaster.org (click on Public, then look for the mapping tools) are very useful in helping you make a decision as well, providing hurricane evacuation zones and storm surge zones (but note you have to zoom in pretty far to get them to display).
A friend of mine has relatives in Melbourne. I think that will be on the northern edge of the storm, but the error potential is too great. My friend advised them to go to Naples, where other family lives, which isn't necessarily a bad idea. They should be far enough south there to miss the impacts of -- and that far SW region of the state is probably the least likely part of any of the state to see major impacts from the storm, although they are by no means out of the woods yet.
My family lives in Orlando, directly in the crosshairs of the current path. They are stocking up and preparing much better than they did for , but supplies are running low. They live in a spot that received a direct hit from , but saw little damage due to good construction and a lack of trees and other objects to fall over. I only hope it stays south of them, as many around them were not as lucky. Even if the storm passes over them per the path, though, they are best suited to ride it out or go to a shelter if the situation warrants.
If you feel it best to leave the state, do so -- but be careful where you head. Depending on the track of the storm, it could impact anywhere from Montgomery, AL to Cape Hatteras, NC in some way, shape, or form. The catch-22 is that if you are going to leave, it is better to do it sooner rather than later as the roads will soon become clogged with traffic. Make contingency plans in case you leave and the storm comes your way anyway.
Thought we might know more about the storm today -- and while we know a bit more, we still know very little. Hopefully Thursday will bring much more new information.
As one last aside...the maximum potential intensity indicators over the SW Atlantic suggest 930-940mb pressure is about all that can occur. But, by no means is it a hard and fast guideline, and much work is being done to try to refine and improve this algorithm. It is something to keep in mind, however. Recon is enroute and I expect they'll find a slightly lower pressure, but nothing spectacularly lower. does have a better appearance on the last satellite images before the nightly eclipse, and is in a favorable cycle for strengthening after the last eyewall replacement cycle, but by no means should we be expecting a cat 5 this morning out of the storm, if at all. Just my two cents.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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MikeG, I agree with the westward trend on the sat pics. If she crosses any part of the next island we'll know for sure.
BTW-If you line up the first and last frame on the SSD loop. She will have to turn right to be north of Ft Lauderdale. Current sat puts crosshairs on the Mia/ FtLauderdale area, Without Any Changes in the current track.
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Clark
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Bloodtar -- the important thing to get is that it is just the airplane's second ob on this flight (note the "FRANCES OB 02" at the bottom) and that they were at 20.4N & 69W at the time of the observation - or about 2 degrees further south and 3 degrees further east of the center of circulation (note the 50204 and 69010 readings in the 3rd and 4th groupings in the second line of code). They are heading there, but aren't there yet. Actual vortex fix is scheduled for near 6z, or 2a ET.
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fred08
Unregistered
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http://www.thelastquestion.com/ontheside/phil/td06.php
good place for decode data flights
basically the are or now in the eye....
20.4n 69.10w was last report of drop
before 18.9 67.0 only about30 mins time difference... on inbound to eye
vortex (eye) data next
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Clark
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Colleen -- I just did the math for that as well, assuming a position of 26 N and 80 W (a bit south and east of WPB). is currently about 1013.45km from that location, or 628.34mi. At 14mph, it'd take the storm just under 45 hours to reach the coast, placing it near shore at about 8pm Friday night. Thankfully we have the extra time, however.
(How I calculated: I used the pythagorean theorem to find the direct distance from to the coast in degrees of latitude, then used a quick conversion to kilometers of 1 deg = 11km, then converted to miles using the standard conversion ratio and went from there.)
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MrSpock
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This run is much farther east at extended time periods (error magnification?), that I think the next run is farther west. I just can't buy this storm making landfall near ILM, then passing just east of A.C. NJ. If that's the case, I'll see weather almost as bad as northern Fla.
Obviously, no one knows how the trough in New Eng. is going to play out, but as someone who hates cold weather, it seems like it has been here since 10-02 with only brief reprieves. Seems like I was defending the 's earlier solution, and now I am criticizing the very next run. Gotta love models. Man, I look at the stretch on the sat pic, and think it wants to turn towards the NW. And as for stalling, and then its next move, the next time that gets forecast accurately, might well be the first time.
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john03
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 020445
97779 04454 50228 70219 56000 17045 53559 /4583
RMK AF985 1606A OB 03
getting close to center
22..8 70.2
they are high in alt on inbound.....normal
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The recon observations you have been seeing here are "Mandantory Reporting Points". They have to report basic weather data every 30 minutes. It appears they are coming from St Croix, V.I., and like Clark said are tasked/ assigned to be in the center/eye at a certain time. The data you have been seeing is Not dropsonde data. Just basic location, wind, altitude, pressure and temperature/ dew point. A true dropsonde data reportis about 20 lines or more long.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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and no the system is still moving off to the wnw from what I've been viewing...
for what its worth, how about south florida to new orleans per the ... is that south and west enough, is that a worse case scenario.... I wonder if they will factor in this model run in their forecast?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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HCW
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Does anyone think that were close to having a rare cat 5 cane ?
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mikeG
Unregistered
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just heard warren on .... recon reported spataicular stadium effect!!!! he is af met
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Colleen it was rough math judging on the position is going a true WNW (292'}at about 14mph over the last 8.5hrs.No deviation in her N movement at all or forward speed,at this rate landfall could happen Friday morning to early evening around the the tip of FL.This provided the track does not change or speed.To be frank at the moment cannot see either happening in the short term for sure.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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spectacular....opps!
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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However you spell it, this is an incredible storm. Current sat pics are awesome, perfectly circular eye.
If you registered you could edit your own messages
Bill
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