Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 69 (Michael) , Major: 69 (Michael) Florida - Any: 69 (Michael) Major: 69 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Frances at 11PM
      #23512 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:44 PM

Interactiction with the islands and dry air injection has put a temporary weaking in Frances. I think this is temporary, but it should hold high cat 3 or 4 status for a while. Winds are now down to 125MPH -- a category 3... still a very powerful hurricane. The track, however, still remains similar to the previous one.


More to come....

Click here to read personal reports from the Bahama Islands),

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:

Melbourne (East Central Florida)
Miami (South Florida)
Key West (Florida Keys)
Tampa Bay (West Central Florida)

Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.

Definitely more to come later...

** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
TD#9 Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Weakening [Re: MikeC]
      #23519 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:52 PM

I am thinking it will be a category three at landfall

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Weakening [Re: Rabbit]
      #23521 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:57 PM

She appears to be getting back together as we speak. Could easily regain a little strength. I'm still thinking cat 4.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Weakening [Re: Rabbit]
      #23522 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM

I'm going with cat 3 first landfall and cat 2 second Panhandle landfall .

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Weakening [Re: Rabbit]
      #23523 - Thu Sep 02 2004 10:58 PM

Sorry folks, wundergrounds 11pm map was in error, they have winds at 135 for 11pm. They are actually 125 mph, per NHC advisory.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Weakening [Re: Jamiewx]
      #23524 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:00 PM

Jason K Where are you. We need some of your expert opinion.

He's probably on the air...maybe Clark will come back (hopefully) soon.

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 11:03 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
Re: Weakening [Re: HCW]
      #23525 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:01 PM

If there is a second landfall in panhandle then it will be Cat 3. The gulf is very warm.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Weakening [Re: Jamiewx]
      #23526 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM

NHC first put out a set of advisories at 115kt, then quickly put out a new, corrected set at 110kt. The rounding in the calculations means one is listed as 135mph and the other as 125mph. In any case, it's still a beast to be dealt with.

Latest recon did not report an eye with the storm and a 950mb minimum pressure. Max flight level winds in the NE quadrant are just 105kt. We'll see how long it takes to get it's act together.

Another excellent 11pm discussion by Stacy Stewart -- he's developing quite the (favorable) reputation amongst the meteorological community here at FSU, that's for sure. In any case, this is going to be a long night...so I'm headed out. Take care everyone...stay safe.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Weakening [Re: jth]
      #23527 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:04 PM

If she holds together. Ft Pierce/ Cocoa Beach for 1st landfall and St Marks/ Appalachicola for second landfall.
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

FRANCES HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS EVENING BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS AND SATELLITE DATA. THE INTENSITY IS BEING DECREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON 948-950 MB PRESSURE REPORTS. SINCE THE LAST RECON REPORTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE HAS BECOME CIRCULAR AND TOPS HAVE COOLED. THUS...THIS MAY ONLY BE A TEMPORARY WEAKENING PHASE...
...18Z UPPER-AIR AND
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE A STRONGER 700-400 RIDGE BY ABOUT 20 METERS.
Isn't this the same 20 meters from the sondes we had a problem with yesterday?



Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 02 2004 11:08 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Alex.K
Unregistered




The gulfstream [Re: MikeC]
      #23529 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:05 PM

Does anyone have any predictions about when Frances passes over the gulfstream late tommorrow? Will that give it an unfortunate kick before landfall?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Weakening [Re: Rabbit]
      #23530 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:07 PM

Even though I'm a newbie on this newly found board, sorry...but I strongly disagree. I think when this puppy hits the Gulf Stream, watch out. I see alot of Andrew in Frances.

My .02 based on over 20 years of watching these storms and thinking we were "lucky" until now in the Sarasota area....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Weakening [Re: jaybythebay]
      #23531 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:08 PM

jaybythebay, the storm is not forecast to remain over the Gulf but for about 12-16 hours. After moving over land, it often takes some time for the storm to reorganize itself. It is highly improbably that Frances becomes a category three in the Gulf unless it remains there for 2+ days, which in itself is highly unlikely. Warm waters are but one factor; you cannot simply just put a storm there and expect it to rapidly intensify like that. The *only* model which is calling for that is the UKMET, which has had a nearly 35mph intensity error at 3+ days...and also does not weaken the storm as it crosses over Florida at all. Suffice to say, you can discount that one.

No real change in my previous thinking, which is scattered about the last thread. Might trend a tad further north on landfall than WPB, probably just S of Ft. Pierce, but that's all. NHC intensity looks good, though I'm still not convinced it'll weaken that much over Florida. Perhaps that's just a bit of wishcasting, though, as I'm probably going to head out again for this one like I did for Bonnie. It shouldn't be anything more than a minimal hurricane at second landfall, if that, but that's three days down the road. Let's get to the east coast first.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: The gulfstream [Re: Alex.K]
      #23532 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:09 PM

Quote:

Does anyone have any predictions about when Frances passes over the gulfstream late tommorrow? Will that give it an unfortunate kick before landfall?




I think we're looking at 140-145 at landfall with a Cat 1 exiting in Manatee County on Sunday.

Just my OPINION. Flame away gang!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Folks, please... [Re: jaybythebay]
      #23533 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM

This is not a "guessing" game...this is very serious. Flippant comments like (not directed at you HCW, just caught my eye) that "if this gets in the gulf I'll be a Cat II). I know you're not trying to be flippant, but someone (actually millions) are going to be facing some of the most stressful times of their lives very shortly...others are obviously still deciding if they should try to leave...why they waited this long is a mystery, but it is a fact nonetheless...others still, for whatever reasons, CANNOT leave and are wondering how to protect life and limb.

Let's try to keep the comments pertinent to what is about to come and leave the pedantic (how bout that HF) commentary to the forums and not the main boards.

Thanks. You guys have really been great! Mike rules.

Let's pray for the weakening of this monster not predicting second landfalls, 'K?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Weakening [Re: JG]
      #23534 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:10 PM

...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS Frances PASSES SLOWLY OVER
THE VERY WARM GULFSTREAM.
INITIAL 03/0300Z 24.5N 75.4W 110 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 25.2N 76.5W 110 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 26.1N 77.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 26.8N 79.1W 120 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 27.6N 80.6W 105 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/0000Z 28.4N 83.0W 45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
96HR VT 07/0000Z 31.5N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/0000Z 35.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Weakening [Re: Clark]
      #23538 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:19 PM

Clark, if you don't mind...since I'm an amateur...

The NHC is advising a slowing to 6-8 knots will lead to wobbles in the path. When this storm hits the gulfstream could it pick up forward speed as it strenghtens or are the upper and lower level winds from the high and model projections not allowing for this for the 36-48 hour forecast window?

There are many of us just north of Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte who have a highly vested interest in pegging some advice on this storm in the next 24 hours...

Thanks for your opinion in advance...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Weakening [Re: danielw]
      #23539 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:21 PM

Where is the graphic that shows wind speeds out from the center?
I wonder, if the current rack holds of course, the expected windspeeds in Broward.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: Folks, please... [Re: LI Phil]
      #23540 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:22 PM

Phil.. you might want to keep this BM ... current windfield ...

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp

Thanks a lot. Just put it in the Favorites Folder!

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 11:40 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
I am here... [Re: JG]
      #23541 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:27 PM

..but in my 10pm cast (starting late as the Pres went long at the convention tonight)...will be able to address things later...but Clark will probably do a better job than me anyway...will try to be more available in about a half an hour...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Weakening [Re: danielw]
      #23542 - Thu Sep 02 2004 11:28 PM

danielw -- indeed it is.

To illustrate this, I used one of the utilities we have here called GEMPAK. Those of you in meteorology are probably familiar with it; for those of you who aren't, simply put, it allows you to display a whole bunch of meteorological data. It's akin to a programming language to display data.

Since it is a rather large file, I have uploaded it to my webserver so as not to clog this webserver down. It is in Adobe PDF format and is about 900kb in size. The file contains a plot of all 12Z radio observations from across the eastern US & Bermuda along with three model output runs for comparison -- GFS in lime green, NOGAPS in red, and Eta in a barely readable yellow (my apologies).

You can get the file here:
http://www.northflams.org/misc/500height.pdf

Contours are denoted every 20m, i.e. 5900m, 5920m, and so on. The number in the upper right of each station obervation gives that station's height. Of particular note are how the models handled the height in Bermuda and the heights along the east coast in Charleston and Jacksonville. Only the GFS came close; the other models kept the 5900 and 5920 lines well out to sea. I could do the same for other times and show the same thing -- and this is all without the aid of the radio observations from the G-IV surveillance plane.

Just an interesting piece of info to leave you all with for the evening.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 41 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 32907

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center