danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks, LakeCountySeat , awesome link!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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John there is Red popping up in the N quadrant. In the middle of the orange area, from 11 to 12 o'clock position.
http://antares.csi.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_ir.html
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 09:07 AM)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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No wx info here. Just an attemept at humorous frustration.
I've watched millions flee Florida sucking up all the gas at most gas stations. No resupply because the ports are shut down. We're stuck in Florida waiting on this fickle hurricane.
When she was a Cat IV, I was worried. Now, I'm just ready for here to fly by me and drop some rain and move on.
Frances, I think you're a dud. Proove me wrong.
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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no kidding! is falling apart. I just cant see her coming back to life.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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could be. but notice the official forecast landfall is getting consistently later. that ridge breakdown some of the globals were on is looking very real right now. there's still lots of time to for the storm to change its trends.. the shear goes away and the storm will spin back up.
it's not something that can be easily forecast, shear.. quite often modeling suggests over and over that shear will die down but it never does.
also, keep the conversive chatter and redundant information off the main board. i posted something to that effect last night, and i mean it.
HF 1203z03september
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I personally see four scenarios. One is the current forecast. I give it about 50%. Two is that continues on current track; but is cat 2 or less at landfall. 20% Three is that show moves more northerly, weakening as she goes and enters north of the Cape to GA/SC border at cat 1/2. 10%
Fourth scenario is the one that still concerns me. All of the above are still huge rain events; but the wind event is diminsished. The fourth is the biggest question. A stall after it gets to the Gulf Stream for extended period of time. Thus, allowing the dynamics to improve and rebuild back to Cat 4 after which the path is a who knows. 20%
Those are my ideas. Not changing my preps at all though.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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You may think that and it may come to be. But when milions of lives are at stake its best to error on the side of caution.
It's complacency that takes lives.
Frances is just temporarily weakening, she will be coming into more favorable conditions soon. The Gulf Stream is very warm.
MaryAnn
Quote:
Frances was not worth moving 2 million people what a dud! 
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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What an answer to prayer! has weakened considerably despite everyone's assurance that she be a CAT IV when making landfall. I appreciate the post last night (from Agent B) that first noted the increasing shear coming from W. Cuba.
Previously, would not intensify the storm prior to landfall. Now that has weakened, they are going against guidance and trying to strengthen it again, but with low confidence of course. Our biggest challenge in forecasting "mother nature" is human nature!
Frances has weakened considerably, but is still a force to be reckoned with - a minimal CAT III storm with destructive winds along the coast, widespread heavy rain, heavy surf, flooding, tornadoes, etc. It's the Bahamas which have taken the brunt of this one, and they will need help.
"Prepare for the worst, pray for the best."
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
Edited by RevUp (Fri Sep 03 2004 12:19 PM)
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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
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In looking at the current pressures I see that Miami Beach pressures are the lowest and still falling on the esat coast, and Naples is doning the same thing on the east coast. I used the falling pressures to track Hugo years ago. So after going through Charlie, I'll error on the side of caution and expect this storm to start moving west around the ridge and it should start building after it gets past the islands. Any comments would be helpful. We still have a mess here in our area and cleanup really has not started in most areas around here.
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LeftOrlando
Unregistered
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Tracks and intensity on this baby are so very uncertain. We left Orlando yesterday morning at 5:35 a.m. and we are now in Atlanta. I have no regrets on leaving. I may have had regrets if we stayed.
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Is it a possibility that this storm could downgrade to a tropical storm before even making landfall?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Always a possibility. Just like it is an equal or greater possibility it gets back to Cat 4. Best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Could up dwelling even weaken this storm more over the next few days ? Is it going to slow down that much ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Frances seems to have lost its punch from some southwesterly shear from a high pressure area to the SW of the storm that was not expected. Even though this southwesterly shear weakened the storm, it really has not been able to push the storm more to the right. This makes me think that the storm really still wants to stay left. I believe as it moves a bit farther north and closer to the other high north of it, that the flow around that high will push the storm directly to the west. It also will increase in strength again due to the slow movement and gulf stream. Don't let your guard down. It looks like it is weakening and slowing down which is buying us some more time. But, it can strengthen again and if it does turn due west it is not that far off shore.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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If fizzles, it will be interesting to watch the media and public reaction to having evac'd all the people. It was certainly a sound decision, but I wonder how much static the will take. Worse, people may not take future warnings seriously.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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have a surprise or two for us don't they..... par for the course.... we sometimes think we have them all figured out, last weekend we said, come Thursday and we'd have a handle on .... if we have a handle on it we're not holding on very tight....
bottom like, appears to me we are years away from truly being able to accurately forecast what these things will do as to track and intensity.... yeah, we've gotten really good over the past few years, with all the technology available.... but nature is not as an exact science as some want to make it.... that's the beauty of it all... wonder what her next surpise will be?
and it makes us all eat a little humble pie every now and then.... I've had my full for sure....
The residents of Florida did what they had to do.... cudos for their great response to what was at the time an epic disaster in the making.... THIS EVENT IS NOT OVER YET EITHER....
hopefully will not find her former glory days... we'll see
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Okay, I am such an amature at this I could be in diapers, BUT, I have been watching the loops and I am seeing the eye try to form in the last one or two frames. I think she is going to gain some form and wind again. Not as bad, but my "gut" tells me she is not done yet. 
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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maxwellincfl
Unregistered
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Those of us living from Punta Gorda up through Arcadia, Lake Wales, Kissimmee, Orlando, Daytona will be happy if this storm becomes a "dud". Unfortunately, a cat 2/3 storm is not a dud. Many lost their roofs/businesses etc and were without power for 2 weeks after cat 2 conditions from (Polk/Osceola counties).
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Back after a much needed break from the storm.....After reading some of the posts I have to feel that this is no time for complacency as this is still a very dangerous storm lurking in the Atlantic. I mean remember what only 90-100 mph winds did to Orlando during and the winds for this storm are at 125mph still. Plus with the slow forward speed is something that no one really wanted to try to deal with and that is the immense amount of rain that this monster's gonna dump on S and C Florida.
Plus Atlanta is right in the cross hairs of a major flooding event to the north with the remnants of this monster.
I feel that the people who evac'd were very smart and I also think that people are still gun-shy over what happened with too.
Just my .02 worth....
Also FYI, there are NO hotel rooms on I-75 available from Valdosta all the way to Dalton, Ga because of the evacuees, UGA and GT home openers, a sci-fi convention and other things. People are heading over to Alabama or SC to find rooms now.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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