Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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We lost power with the first wind band that came through.
(roughly 1:30pm Sat)
No damage to house or trees, we got very lucky.
Just as lucky as my landfall guess. N of Ft.Lauderdale - S. of Ft. Pierce.
I have lived in Brevard since 1985 and have never seen this kind of activity. Simply AMAZING
Still to early to tell with , but I would say it's LA and TX's turn.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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What did Florida do wrong? When was the last time that we were still 5 to 6 days away from landfall and saying that there was no way out of a storm hitting a certain area? This is insane! I have never seen the models agree this much going 5-6 days out. The only thing in question is if it will hit the west coast of Florida or the east coast of Florida. I would give anything to have become a CAT 5 and hit my home and mine only to save Florida from another hit. I guess the only thing to do know is pray.
ShawnS
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Like I said, I would give anything to have that happen and save Florida. I don't wish this on my friends here in Texas or LA either but it would sure be better than another Florida hit.
ShawnS
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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is there ANY possibility that these models may be missing something and could be wrong?
ShawnS
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
is there ANY possibility that these models may be missing something and could be wrong?
ShawnS
do you havea link to the models
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Brad
Unregistered
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I think box 2 is between 15 & 20, and 80 & 85. If I remember correctly, the box put Fla and the Bahamas at greater risk based on pre-1950 or so data, but didn't mean much between about 1950 and 1999, when Irene went through it.
But I may be remembering that incorrectly. I suspect it's easy to look up.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Take them with a grain of salt at this point...the G-IV missions commence soon, and (barring problems like we had with ) we should get somewhat firmer data once that gets into the modelling...the first G-IV flights are scheduled for tomorrow.
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Jason Kelley
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Mobilian
Unregistered
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I don't understand the 5pm advisory where it says
AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE OCEAN IS NOT AS WARM. THEREFORE SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.
The graphics I've seen have the SST's about 5 degrees warmer. Can someone explain? Thanks.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I'm not so sure where Herberts Box in terms of lat. longitude but even if a hurricane does pass through it, it doesn't mean it will hit Florida. Many other factors have to be full-filled such as the angle of the approaching hurricane, and the upper-level air patterns around it, etc.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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You can find the info here ....... Herbert Box
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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OH YA, WELCOME BACK !!!!!!!!!!!! 
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OrlandoNative
Unregistered
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The models already have included some of the G-IV mission data. In fact, this is the lowest Lat. mission ever flown. Please see:
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004
A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET PERFORMED A SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF LATE YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAD A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS AS MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ENOUGH FOR ALREADY STORM WEARY PEOPLE IN FLORIDA TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT.
But even a close miss could bring more winds and rains than some area can handle.
OrlandoNative
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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My bad...I have a post-Frances 'hangover' and am just beginning to get my analysis started on ...I missed that...thanks for pointing that out!
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Jason Kelley
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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Isiodore in 2002 was a very southern track. She was still a depression in about the same spot where is now, but she gain strength and had everyone questioning her next move. I hope doesn't pose the same problems she did with forecasting.
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Bottom line is that we pretty much ARE looking at some sort of Florida hit!?!?
ShawnS
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Were I a betting man and forced to make a call right now? Yes.
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Jason Kelley
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Most hurricanes in this area of the atlantic are very hard to forecast. There are weak streeing currents, Cuba and Hispanola to interact with, and usually some type of shear effecting the storm. This storm right now is embedded in a deep westerly flow, until it gets out of this wind it's not going anywhere but west.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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It is too early to tell. The has crossing eastern Cuba, the Bahamas and then heading for the fishes.
But my gut feeling is that Florida is in for another hit.
Bill
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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Welcome back - no rest for the weary and the folks in Florida.
Everyone stay safe and God Bless.
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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For those of you who are long time weather watchers who live in Florida, I have noticed that Florida Peninsula runs weather patterns over several weeks duration. For example if it rains this sSaturday, it is likely to set up a pattern of raining every Saturday for at least a while. I am thinking that in spite of the fact that these storms are major events even at Cat 1 status, that it is still a weather pattern that has started with Florida being hit every 2 -21/2 weeks and I am afraid that is elected to continue that pattern, unless some little ULL or surface level low forms between us and and misleads him into oblivion.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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