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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
      #24290 - Wed Sep 08 2004 10:41 PM

Ivan is looking absolutely astounding on the satellite images tonight.. A Category 4 borderline 5 (forecast to become a 5 now). The central dense overcast around the eye is perfect at the moment. Luckily I don't think it'll hold this intensity long.

Note: Still category 4 as of 11PM:


Although, unfortunately, think it will be on the high end of the major hurricane scale as it approaches Jamaica.

Right now the track puts it over cuba, and once again into the Gulf of Mexico west of Florida. This is a larger system, like Frances. So it is likely effects may be felt across a wider area. The forecast track shifted a bit right at 11PM tonight as well. Hopefully it'll keep shifting right and go out to sea and miss the US entirely.

It still has a chance to meander to the west and avoid the gulf, but the more likely scenario is for it to head over cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Which would unfortunately put the western coast of Florida and the rest of the Gulf coastal regions in watch mode again.

If it were to approach Florida it would come in again at an odd angle, causing warnings up and down the coast similar to Charley (if not longer). The areas hit by Charley will be under the gun, and likely Tampa again. I hope, for Florida's sake. It decides to ditch the idea of a vacation there. Venice, Punta Gorda, Ft. Myers, Key West, Sarasota, Tampa and the panhandle are the models current destinations. Not again!

The islands of the Caribbean, Mexico and the Gulf states need to watch Ivan over the next week -- especially Florida. (Again.. I just hope we don't strikeout)

I don't think it will be a category 5 when it makes landfall, however.

Event RelatedLinks
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #24293 - Wed Sep 08 2004 10:52 PM

I don't want to be an alarmist because I know those model forecasts are just educated guesses but 120hours out puts that Ivan right on Tampa Bay longitude and latitude. That is waaay too close for comfort considering the flooding that we have gone through this week. The winds are also a wee bit strong. Hopefully the computer models are just shaking out the crumbs from the last pack of peanut butter crackers that the forecasters were munching on during the power outages from Charley and Frances, otherwise, we are going to be in a really really sticky mess about Monday into Tuesday 9/13-9/14. My offices already have a leaky roof thanks to Charley/Frances one-two punch.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #24295 - Wed Sep 08 2004 10:58 PM

I worked on two houses today with leaky roofs.
One in the Daytona beach area and the other in the Deltona area N. of Orlando.
There are thousands of roofs with leaks in them alll over Florida.
BTW, Tampa did NOT get hit with Charley. It was Frances that caused a lot of rain and flooding in the bay area.

Some parts of Polk county on the other hand did experience Charley. Charley was a very small compact storm compared to Frances and Ivan.

I'm wondering how far the tracks will keep moving East.
At this rate, the Bahama's wil be out of harms way soon


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Models [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #24297 - Wed Sep 08 2004 11:03 PM

I find it odd that the further west Ivan goes the further east the tracks go. I'm starting to wonder if there may not be some BIG surprises in store these next few days. More than likely not, but you never know.

ShawnS


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #24298 - Wed Sep 08 2004 11:03 PM

I know this is not an insurance board.. But figure some may know the answer. If I had damage to my roof that caused leakage from Charlie, and I got it temporary fixed and the fix blew off (actually twice once during a thunderstorm) during Frances, will the the water damage I received during Frances require another deductible? My adjuster came to my house 2 days after the hurricane, but never got on my roof and he is comming back tommorow to look at things again.. Still have not received a penny or any reports or info from Adjuster. I had to hire a public adjuster.. Anyways sorry I am off topic. Figured a response would help others too..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #24299 - Wed Sep 08 2004 11:05 PM

Insurance claims are a mess. Last I heard was the damage from Charley and Frances were seperate instances and you had to pay the deductable for each event. Can't combine them.

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rolaren
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #24301 - Wed Sep 08 2004 11:07 PM

Hi, I'm new here, nice site you have!

I'm just learning about all this stuff and it really scares me seeing Ivan's latest models putting it right into Tampa.

If it stayed at a 4 and hit Tampa, how bad would it be in the Kissimmee/Orlando area? I saw a thing on Accuweather that wants to aim the eye right across FL like Charley went.

Thanks for any insights...


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 130
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: rolaren]
      #24305 - Wed Sep 08 2004 11:15 PM

Okay listen here, Ivan. The Gulf Coast has had ENOUGH rain, winds, and warnings to last us for the next 50 years. Sit and spin you squally bastard until there's no spin left in you. Die. Die fast, die painfully, just die. Okay that was my wishcast, folks.

I used to love hurricanes. Well not the effects, but I used to love to watch them come and go, meander, wind, twist, strengthen, weaken, everything. I have been watching, plotting, and enjoying their antics since my first experience with one as a child in Naples, FL. But right now, I'm tired. I'm tired of cleaning up. I'm tired of plotting, I'm tired of worrying.

Between myself and my parents through both hurricanes Charley and Frances we have lost: In Abaco, a dock, shed, all vegetation inundated with salt water, a porch, half a roof, and massive flooding. In Arcadia, 1/4 of a roof, 7 large oaks, a barn, a shed, all fencing, a hunting cabin (split in half right down the middle. Odd looking! Had to get that info aerial, can't even get in there for so many trees down and so much water.) We've lost crops in both FL and TN due to the flooding. In Palmetto, all canvas from out boat ripped to shreds, but she's still floating!

Yes, we feel blessed to have our lives, but I'm beginning to wonder if it isn't "three strikes and you're out".

I don't think I'll ride this one out if it comes folks. I felt the floor rise up and go down under me during Charley's ride through Arcadia. I don't think I can do it again. I'm renaming Ivan.

I-Van-Outta-Here

-Bev


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Insurance Claims Question [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #24313 - Wed Sep 08 2004 11:56 PM

Actually, there is a fine line of definition with the double deductible for the two storms. You mentioned you have roof damage sustained from Charley. If Frances worsened an already existing condition, there is only ONE deductible. If however, you have two separate damages, then the deductible would be applied twice. Unfortunately, I fall into that second category. I had my fence destroyed by Charley...but no structural damage to the house....that is one claim with a deductible. Frances damaged my roof which will require a second claim...since the roof is unrelated to the fence damage, I am socked for two deductibles.

Hope that clarified the situation for you. One other note, while on the topic of insurance. The officials are actually broadcasting to the folks here in Florida that it would be better to wait until AFTER Ivan rolls through to file a claim for damages. That way, all the damages would be lumped as one claim with a single deductible. (Who's to tell the adjuster what came from Frances and what was done by Ivan>??)

--Lou


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Models [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24316 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:09 AM

The new GFS is out to 90 hours now, and it looks to have shifted quite a bit to the left. It has it crossing central Cuba. We'll have to see if this is the beginning of a model trend, in which case, I still feel the GFS is still too far to the right. This has the potential to affect not only the Gulf Coast/SE US, but could eventually continue north to areas that have seen enough rain to last the rest of the year and then some. Where I am in NJ, we had almost 7 inches last month, and 10 miles north of me, there was the 13" event over several hours a couple of months ago. My area got less than 2" that day. The problem is, the wetter it is, the less wind it takes to knock trees down. Even if this were to affect an area like Virginia, still as a tropical storm, I would bet that the wind damage would be equivalent to a stronger system. First things first, no one knows where it will make landfall. My guess is still in the eastern GOM. If it does go over central Cuba, it would be harder for it to recover. Not that you want it to hit anywhere, but I think Fla. has had enough to last a long time.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
NHC Forecast Error.... [Re: recmod]
      #24317 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:14 AM Attachment (581 downloads)

This is a map done by a talented young man on the talkweather.com forums by the name of Matt Grantham...he has given me permission to repost it here, and Mods, you can use it in the headlines section if you like.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: Bev]
      #24318 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:14 AM

Yup. Feeling like a deer in the headlights. Arcadia has no shelters left to open. That trough over the mid west better stay right where it is. Either that or we all line up on the beach and blow.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: Sadie]
      #24319 - Thu Sep 09 2004 03:20 AM

Great to see the site back, and a few may know now that Ivan is a Cat 5. A slow start but that changed in a hurry and the panhandle has been real lucky but I really don't mind seeing Nov 30 coming... if that will mean anything.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Duncan
Unregistered




Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #24320 - Thu Sep 09 2004 03:37 AM

Wow , this has been one heck of a season, out of nine named storms 4 have been major hurricanes., 3 have made it to CAT 4 and now we have the first CAT 5 at a whopping 160 MPH. I feeling the effects of Francis right now in NE Ohio and while the winds are only 25-35 MPH, it is still scary, I cannot imagine what it would be like with major sustained hurricane force winds.

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #24321 - Thu Sep 09 2004 03:38 AM

I have the opportunity to go to Naples on Sunday to board up and ride out the storm in a condo, which is located about 100 yards off the beach. I'd be paid to do this - and all expenses taken care of by the condo's owner. Any thoughts on taking on such an endeavor? The condo itself is located on the 2nd story of a 10 story building. It has no storm shutters, however is partially protected by mangroves.

I am also not sure how I should even think about getting there from the airport as the first floor is the "parking lot" and there would certainly be a loss or high probability of damage to any car I would rent...so I suppose it's a taxi. I would intend on bringing all supplies (minus plywood) with me as luggage.

So...call me crazy or lucky...what do you think of such an endeavor?


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Ding ding ding! Florida may take another one... [Re: Domino]
      #24322 - Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/090853.shtml?
Latest forecast track cuts this one right through the eastern part of Florida. The models that were east are coming west, those west are coming east. Things seem to be coming into agreement now. You can definitely tell the high pressure to the NE of Ivan has relaxed this morning. The storm is really starting to gain some latitude now.

This could be an incredible storm if the latest NHC track verifies. I'll try to analyze this a little more this afternoon, time permitting.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: Ding ding ding! Florida may take another one... [Re: Kevin]
      #24323 - Thu Sep 09 2004 06:33 AM



--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Jeanine
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
Re: Ding ding ding! Florida may take another one... [Re: Kevin]
      #24324 - Thu Sep 09 2004 06:37 AM

Hi Everyone,
We started getting relaxed last night and low and behold this a.m, yeh ding, ding ding, I've had to look twice. This has to be a joke! Sorry, I think many people are going to be shocked when they wake up and see the news. I know its still 4-5 days out but still. Not trying to be a alarmist, just really scared!
Thank you for this site guys! Cant remember password
Jeanine
Hollywood, FL

e-mail mike at: mike@flhurricane.com and he'll retrieve your pword or give you a temp

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 04:27 PM)


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: Domino]
      #24325 - Thu Sep 09 2004 07:14 AM

Quote:

I have the opportunity to go to Naples on Sunday to board up and ride out the storm in a condo, which is located about 100 yards off the beach. I'd be paid to do this - and all expenses taken care of by the condo's owner. Any thoughts on taking on such an endeavor? The condo itself is located on the 2nd story of a 10 story building. It has no storm shutters, however is partially protected by mangroves.

I am also not sure how I should even think about getting there from the airport as the first floor is the "parking lot" and there would certainly be a loss or high probability of damage to any car I would rent...so I suppose it's a taxi. I would intend on bringing all supplies (minus plywood) with me as luggage.

So...call me crazy or lucky...what do you think of such an endeavor?




I don't think you want to be any part of being 100 yards off shore for a Cat 4 or 5. People several miles inland of Frances have told me they will evacuate next time. If the condo doesn't have hurricane shutters, it was probably built pre-Andrew. Many of those on the beach were completely destroyed by Frances. Frances was a pussycat compared to what Ivan could be.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #24326 - Thu Sep 09 2004 07:24 AM

Based on Ivan: NHC Advisory 28


Full size street level image and more available at http://www.skeetobite.com


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