scottsvb1
Unregistered
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no tena i was out of power for about 36hours till about midnight monday night/tuesday morning, did you lose power? how long
Scott, e-mail Mike to get a password (new or old); then use the PM feature. The main board is not a chat room! Thanks.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 05:29 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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The is not exactly out to sea, but a very odd track. This path shows it appearently going out to sea, but then veering back into Tidewater Va. Since we got socked by a CAT 1 Isabel last year, this angle as as a II or III would be devestating:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=tpptmslp
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I agree with SoonerShawn about the wishcasting away from Florida. Here in Mobile there are not only a great number of people praying for the folks in Florida, but even the kids are getting in on the action. One of our local schools are getting a bunch of things together to send to one of the elementary schools down there. Also, our Baptist Association is organizing a HUGE line of trucks full of necessities. The last I heard they were waiting on more trucks and I think they were going to leave tomorrow, but don't know if the trip has been postponed due to . But, GaryC, my heart goes out to you and all of the rest who are doing without right now. We all need to stop and count our blessings.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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I didnt lose anyone, or anything "Thank God!" but i have friends lost alot. I will say this, if the storm is anywhere near Florida again it will be bad especially if it is in the Cent FL area. You hear up here every year that we will not ever get anything, now it has everyone looking at the internet and tv waiting for the news. Anyways, I would like to Thank Mike and John for this site. I will be sending a small token of my graditude to you guys for the hardware upgrade and if anyone has had enjoyment from this free website you should do the same. It is a thankless job they have. Thanks again! 
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Kimberly,.,,,,clearify plz your landfall projection,,near the top you say in the Panhandle of florida, then further down you say with the Ukmet in sw florida. Which one? Also you said its in line with the 5pm track, thats not out yet, also the 18Z runs are not quite out yet.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Oh nm kimberly,,,,what you read was last nights report. Its 12-18hours old.
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Scott, Sorry about any confusion. I was reading SNONUT and I guess this was from yesterday, but found it very interesting (scary) that SNONUT was going with the UKMET:
"The 12Z Canadian Global is to the left of the UKMET through the Yucatan Channel with an eventual landfall on the Gulf coast of MS/AL. While I'm no big fan of this model and its ability to predict long term motions of tropical cyclones I just mention it so you can see how much spread there is among the global models.
The latest 00Z Medium BAMM is very close to the 18Z …the latest 00Z Deep BAMM is very close to the 18Z only a little slower.
Bottom line…the models have been rightward biased for the last 3-4 days and I think that continues. So my forecast is close to the UKMET and the official TPC 5pm track package."
I am certainly no expert, but it concerned me when I read that there is a REAL possibility it could end up hitting west of Alabama and do massive devastation to us. Sorry I didn't realize the SNONUT information was from yesterday. Please forgive me.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Queston about the models. What do all the lines on the spaghetti run represent. I don't think there are as many models as lines. Is this over time...are some of them repeated?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Forgot link:
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Here is the latest that I get e-mailed to me:
WTNT34 KNHC 091741
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004
...NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS THAT CONTINUES
TO BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...HEADING FOR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF MATANZAS EASTWARD.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE .
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WAS LOCATED BY A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.
IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160
MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF .
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
WWWW
E-Warn is a free public service from the ABC 33/40 Weather Center. To
sign up for other ABC 33/40 E-Warn products, or to unsubscribe, go here:
http://www.jamesspann.com/ewarnmain.html
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Each line does represent a model forecast track.
Remeber, some of the models (BAM I think) are run off of the . I can't seem to find the link that listed each one by color, but if I do, I'll post it.
BTW, IMHO, the is OTL (out to lunch)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wanted to thank, Shawn W., Walter B., and George Z.) for help in mirroring the site. Flhurricane has 4 mirrors at the moment and should be smooth as far as images go. The main site (boards, etc) is still on the central flhurricane server. (Which is the old one)
The new server equipment (which all the donations are going to to pay a portion of -- donations so far cover about half it... thanks all!) won't be avaialbe until next week, in the meantime this arrangement should help.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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This link is from the TPC on the some of the models:
http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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if jason gets on later today he has the link because he uses the graphic on the local weather. hopefully he didn't get p od about somebody blasting him last week.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Thanks, because I seem to have lost mine. Ed, I think the other link provides the important ones though.
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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My thoughts exactly Storm Hound!
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Lis
Unregistered
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Hi Mike. I sent you some $$ yesterday via paypal for your site. Keep up the fantastic work.
Anyway, I am in south FL - fort lauderdale, and have reservations to go to Atlanta - does any think that is a safe move???? I have two little girls and am petrified by this one.
Thanks for your advise
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Thanks for the link, which is more than a little over my head. Is there one that the "owns" and relies on that more heavily, or does it go with the model that has been most effective in predicting recent storms?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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martha
Unregistered
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Hey guys. I'm in Cape Coral and I'm starting to get really petrified. I don't know if I should/can leave or not. If you can find hotels they are over $200 per night and who knows if you leave when you can get back in.
What is the likliehood of me NOT getting hit???
Thanks so much!
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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The goes with a blend of the Global models (throwing out the 1-2 that is out of the question) and the . They will comprimise the difference bettween them. But if the is out to lunch then they will ingore that 1.
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