CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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The rare "subtropical storm" (rare enough to confuse our automated tracking systems on our site) is approaching North Carolina. Not a true tropical system, it has winds like one, and is a hybrid style storm.
As it nears the North Carolina coast, it'll pass by and cause some winds and eventually turn north and away.
Apologies for lack of updates the last few days, I've been a bit too busy with other things. (This update will be quick too)
Thanks to Ed Dunham for the updates in the Storm forum, and everyone else here in the interim.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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buoy 42019 west gulf reports rap presser fall 29.86 to 29.75 o.10 look out here we go
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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actually at 1pm it was at 29.91
even more of a drop
the other bouy in that area also have shown a pressure drop
Edited by troy2 (Mon Sep 09 2002 11:43 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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i dont see any thing there this could be fay moving east looks that way
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Alex k
Unregistered
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In what part of the gulf is there a pressure drop? I am going to the Texas coast this weekend, and I do not need a tropical system.
Gustav looks better this evening. Its pressure is falling. The outer banks are in for a rough day tommorrow.
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GOMF
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
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Been watching the wave around 45W...has kept good convection all day long. Conditions seem to have improved ahead of it. Watch out Winward Islands.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Too far North already to be of concern for the islands, even if it develops.
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GOMF
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 12
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Yeah right...I was looking at an outdated sat pic. This one shows what you mean:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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gustav has deepened slowly all day and now finally has a partial feature, not a weak core and clusters on bands hundreds of miles from the center. the should change gustav to a tropical storm on the next advisory, as it now has deep convection almost surrounding the center.
i'm surprised the strength was held at 45mph, this needs to be changed too. recon found 53kt flight level winds about six hours ago, which equates to roughly 60mph surface winds. i really hope they fix all of these things at 11pm.
thoughts on the track are.. basically the official blend. the models agree quite well about hooking gustav NE skirting the outer banks.. unusually well. when you get model consensus like this best to go with it.
fay remnants.. visions of fay drifting back offshore are seeming ill founded, but still the circulation persists. hpc advisories say there are only 10mph winds with the system, yet laredo has been getting stronger winds all day long. the center is now south of laredo, southern end of webb county texas, straddling the rio grande. stalled again, no less. interesting that it still has such definition as it has been onshore now for better than sixty hours. very unlikely it will ever make it back to the coast, though.
gulf.. same as last night. nothing in a hurry to form, but sloppy disturbed weather everywhere.
td7.. still tracking remnants as 95L. weak low level circulation popping convection beneath a furious NW shear jet. i will agree with calling it dead now.. it picked the worst place possible to sit and ponder.
waves... 40w wave amplitude up, but crashing into an upper trough, which just happens to be fed by the jet scraping 95L flat. basically, el waveo no formo under el shearo. closer to the islands maybe better luck, but not where it is.
back near 25/30w is another low latitude swirl in a wave, with fair convection. probably wont develop where it is, maybe down the road past the upstream trough.
basin might actually go quiet after gustav. there are some disturbances that could develop, but all seem intent on playing chicken with wind shear.
HF 0146z10september
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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gustav is nearing hurricane strength. recon has pressure at 992mb, 850mb winds now at 61kt. this correllates to a 65mph tropical storm. pressure has fallen 4mb in the past couple or three hours.
fay moving ssw into old mexico.
unlikely any new systems will develop next 24hrs.
HF 0502z10september
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Larry
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Pressure continues to drop ( now 987 MB) and Gustav is now classified as a tropical storm by the due to the developing inner core of strong winds. Now headed N, so the outer banks may miss a direct landfall.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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has an incomplete banding type eye feature this morning. pressure has fallen 5mb in the past 12hr or so.. 987 is usually a hurricane. winds rated at 60mph by the .. i'd call 'em 65.. since recon has found 62kt and the normal 10% reduction gives 56kt.. ~64mph. anyway inner core not very tight, now very apparent on morehead city radar. either going directly over hatteras or just east.. probably just east.. in about eight hours i'd guess. at the current rate of intensification that gives a 983-984mb storm.. so decent chance gustav will be a hurricane at landfall/closest approach. all that said, a pretty run of the mill outer banks storm.
fay remnants drifting down towards monterrey, texas rains lessen from here on.
gulf system that various models have been wanting to create in various places isnt embellishing on its intentions.. thats if it really is in the future. surface wind field in the gulf has been chaotic for days.
very intense convergence convection south of gustav over the bahamas, surface winds curving around it some. probably not a development threat, and if it were it would just follow gustav out to sea.
td 7 remnants.. yet again, bubbling up convection. low level swirl is still intact near 25/57. upper jet max axis passed ahead, weakening.. and subsidence now pouring down from the north and northeast behind it.. and still the system is sputtering along. by rights it should be dead, but there it is again this morning.
east of the islands the 45w wave is acting up. it has had a surface low with it all the way across.. now the wave has amped up and lost its e-w oblong circulation.. and is throwing some fairly good convection. however, upper trough digging in ahead and shearing the wazoo out of it.. probably get ripped to shreds, would recurve way out there if it did develop any.. but this wave energy will have to be watched if it doesnt shear out.. when it gets further west.
wave behind it at low latitude, not much convection, not as impressive in terms of signature.
thats everything this morning. hanna may be in the works, but isnt very close at this hour.
HF 1424z10september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Appears a surface low is trying to form near 22.6n and 89w.
Anyone else see the low level swirl starting or is it just outflow from the near by thunderstorms?
SB
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Evident on latest loops, unless it wobbles back to the east it'll go right over or just WEST of Cape Hatteras, may even brush the mainland. Center was becoming better organized, seems to be holding own at the moment.
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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meant to say center has become less well organized, but storm is holding own.
IHS,
Bill
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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986 mb. just another mb.. still a small center bouncing around inside the main convective envelope. has perhaps tightened the entire circulation just a little, but still broad and atypical. the mini-center did do a tight little cyclonic loop. thinking it will move just east of hatteras late this afternoon... then its on to newfoundland. might behave as michael did in 2000, intensifying rapidly before merging with the cyclone that will meet it off nova scotia. still probably become a hurricane, though probably not until tonight.
gulf activity looking less chaotic today. 45w wave will maybe spit out a low level circulation to track under the shear.. formed TD7 at 25/57 stationary and doing nothing but persisting.
HF 1800z10september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like possible low center forming at about 24.0-90.0.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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(quick post)There is a broad area of low pressure north of the Yucatan that appears to be wrapping some thunderstorms into it. There is a lot LOT of energy west and south of Florida...so as long as the convection persists we may have TD8 or Hanna brewing by Thursday. I'll have more later tonight or tomorrow on this system.
I will say one thing. As one person was mentioning on here a day or two ago, Florida is long overdue for a major storm from the west. Not saying this (if it forms) will be one but is interesting to ponder.
*I also can't think of any storms that have formed near the Yucatan Peninsula and effected Florida. Can anyone think of any of these storms? Seems like they occured quite a bit in the 30's through the 60's.*
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Opal hit the panhandle.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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sfc obs arent showing anything more than light winds in a broad cyclonic flow. there is subsidence intruding into the gulf off the louisiana coast which will probably inhibit anything trying to form in the area.
td 7 remnants better be dead. convection finally all squelched.
gustav is near closest approach. guess i was a couple hours and a couple mb off.
might end up being a quiet week.
HF 2000z10september
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