Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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A near-classic Gulf system is expected to develop on Saturday along the north Gulf coast and move east northeastward across north Florida Saturday night. The system is expected to intensify and move northeastward along or just inland of the east coast on Sunday, eventually becoming a deep low early Tuesday morning over Long Island. The system should move north northeast into southeastern Maine by Tuesday afternoon.
Rain likely over Florida Saturday night and Sunday morning as the developing system heads for the Atlantic coast in southeast Georgia. The first widespread rain event in Florida in about a month - with just a small chance for a few severe storms on Sunday. I would expect the storm system to occlude along the warm front with enough cold air wrapped around the system to bring snow to all of New England and southeastern New York on Tuesday. With pressure dropping to about 980mb, I'd also expect high winds and near blizzard conditions over the Northeast late Monday into Tuesday. Unseasonably cool temperatures can be expected in the Southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Cheers,
ED
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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That little disturbance is taking shape. JK has been yelling about this every night this past week. SPC has us shaded for slight risk and a whole lot of water on Sunday.... then cold snow on LIPhil's head 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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A part of Tally AFD...
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS DECISION WILL HAVE ON OUR FORECAST WILL BE WIND
DIRECTION ON SUN AND, MORE IMPORTANTLY, SEVERE WX THREAT. THE
LOOKS SCARY. HOWEVER, EVEN THE SOLUTION WOULD POSE PROBLEMS.
THIS MODEL DOESN'T ALLOW THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL
AIRMASS TO REACH THE COAST, LIKE THE DOES. HOWEVER, WIND
PROFILES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION, STRONG DPVA AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A GULF JET STREAK WILL
ALSO BE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTERS TO A SEVERE WX THREAT. DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK JUST ARRIVED AND SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. THE
DEGREE OF SEVERE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR N THE SURFACE
INSTABILITY GETS. THE WARM FRONT COULD ENHANCE SHEAR AND THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES. FOR NOW, WE WILL JUST MENTION ALL OF THESE
POSSIBILITIES IN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONES.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
That little disturbance is taking shape. JK has been yelling about this every night this past week. SPC has us shaded for slight risk and a whole lot of water on Sunday.... then cold snow on LIPhil's head
Don't think I haven't been screaming about this all week as well...just not here. This is going to be one helluva storm up here, and it's already wreaking some havoc down south. I could see 2 feet of snow with this, or just a couple of inches followed by heavy rains, then a bit more snow. Regardless, it's gonna be a nasty event...classic nor'easter. Better go out and buy bread and milk
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like you guys have been doing your homework. I looked at some of the Mid and Northern Gulf of Mexico buoys taking a pounding about 24 hours ago. Current Ga and Fl offshore observations indicate the Low is Still intensifying!
Fernandina Beach-FRDF1. 23Z 996.4mb. Winds NNE at 14G37 kts.
Navy Tower R2-SPAG1. 0028Z 996.3mb, Winds E at 33G47 kts.
Navy Tower M2R6-SKMG1. 0032Z 996.6mb.Winds E at 47G51 kts
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Oh, yeah...this might not be Henry Margusity's storm of biblical proportions...but it's not gonna be a fun 24 hours... NWS Upton
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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