HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nothing personal. i don't see what purpose it serves. it can't be predicted with any skill... i could make a better statistical guess by saying it won't rain here on october 26th. there's like better than 80% on that. but it's way outside realistic range for forecasting. for hurricanes in any given season, nowhere on the u.s. coast is there more than a single digit percentage chance of a direct hit. ever. so why sit around and contemplate who loses their roof this summer when there's no use in it? go read the farmers almanac if you want that.
HF 1414z05may
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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HF, I hope you know that I was just joking about Fairbanks. I agree with you 100%.
I know. I did the same thing. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu May 05 2005 03:59 PM)
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Mobridge, South Dakota.
-------------------- cheers
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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...
EDIT: Hey, ftlaudbob, don't take it personally... but some of us are still recovering from our own major hits last summer, and playing this kind of guessing game (which, unfortunately, is all that this amounts to right now) is kind of fruitless. While we --cough-the media-cough-- all tend to play name games with the big cities, it is usually the more obscure towns that get hit (ie, Homestead, Punta Gorda, etc). No hard feelings, and just take it easy, all right?
-------------------- cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu May 05 2005 03:17 PM)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Fantastic picture Lysis, I was having a bad day until I saw this.Good job, good laugh,and true, we too are still trying to get things in order and back together here in Brevard after last years double hit before season starts....Has it stopped raining down your way yet?.......Weatherchef
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Heh, I am glad you liked the pic. Rain has ceased for the immediate moment, and high pressure will move over the state by weeks end. Still chances for a thunder-boomer (quite the scientific vernacular here, eh?) tonight and into tomorrow, but nothing like yesterday now that this unflinching front has been kicked out of town.
-------------------- cheers
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Back after a long break
Time for my prediction:
16 storms
8 hurricanes
4 major
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Hurricaneloer05
Unregistered
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Lets roll...That system over the South Atlatnic looks darn good. But was not given any respect.
I forecast
15 named storms
8 hurricanes
5 maj
2 landfalls of hurricanes
3 landfalls of tropical storms
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Bloodstar
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Posts: 465
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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It's not quite pulling numbers out of a hat, but it's close here are my thoughts:
I think the current trend of relatively above average SST's will continue for the summer months. Enhancing any storms that make it to hurricane status.. With neutral conditions otherwise, I think we're going to see the following breakdown:
18 Depressions
14 Tropical Storms and 2 Subtropical Storms (16 total)
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
Ok now why these numbers?
let's look at the last few years:
Cat 04 03 02 01 00
TS 15 16 13 15 15
HC 09 07 04 09 08
So I'm fully expecting about the same TS/ST development. I'm also expecting anything that gets going will have a generally neutral development but with warm SST's will still be able to ramp up to a minimal hurricane (ergo, the high number of hurricanes projected). I also expect the hurricanes to have enough warm ocean water to reach major hurricane status about half the time. So, it'll be busy, I really expect to see one Subtropical storm at the start of the season and one at the end of the season. That's also symptomatic of both warmer SST's in colder weather, leading to hybrid/transitional systems, as well as better understanding and diagnosis of when a storm is a Subtropical system. My gut is also telling me that 6 Major hurricanes seems high, but Last year there was 5, and it seems viable to have one more.
Take care and I'll be wishcasting for all fishspinners and a lot of fireworks but no damage.
-Mark
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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subtropical storm?
by the way, if anyone is wondering, my new avatar is Daggett from Angry Beavers
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Mapmaster
Unregistered
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Hmmmm
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
gfs has a storm blowing up on the subtropical jet near florida late in the week, then being blocked by a high in the northeast and stalling for a couple of days off the east coast. it's a noreaster that can't find it's way north, essentially. the upper flow around the subtropical jet, save in the shelter zone under the system's associated upper low, won't let anything develop. just a coastal low.
gfs has a large area of storminess in the caribbean next week--late in the week a low emerges from the mess and rides across cuba and the bahamas, then phases in with an upper trough in the western atlantic. tropical source region for sure. it's too early, but the models are giving us our first chances to wave monger for 2005. in four weeks or so features of the same ilk will have more significant chances of becoming something.
HF 1544z02may
HF, looks like the got the want-to-be Noreaster right. You guys getting a heavy rain for the second or third day in a row. If the was this good with the tropical systems, forecasting landfall locations would be a lot easier.
I wonder if the extra data that they feed into the models during Hurricane season is part of what is throwing the model forecasts off.
Just an observation from the back row.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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could we have a subtropical depression or storm by day's end?
IR loop
VIS loop
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Hurricahjoid
Unregistered
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Wow. That doe's looks like it has developed a more tropical core. It appears to be alot like the perfect storm.
Remember systems like this can develop a overall. But develop tropical center. We need more data. The would never upgrade this because of the cold core/extratropical part. They did not even upgrade the unknown hurricane of 1991.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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ok, looking at the latest satellite images, i see that the New England low now has what appears to be an eye forming and I have to say that we now have the second subtropical storm of the year that refuses to upgrade
unclassified subtropical storm
this looks better defined than even Gabrielle in 2001 did, and that was a hurricane
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I personally do not think they need to divert there attention because of this storm...it's just like any other gale center that we see off of New England. Strong winds, nice satellite presentation, blah, blah. Don't get me wrong, it's a very potent system but it seems that everytime we get a coastal storm on the gulf stream it's a subtropical storm...
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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hurricanehkjikls
Unregistered
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Thats where your wrong my frined. A gale center is a cold core system. This is a Special kind of tropical cyclone/subtropical system. This is a 1991 unnamed storm like storm. It has a cold/extratropical outside with a hurricane in the middle. But we will never know because it is now moving out of the Gulf stream.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
Thats where your wrong my frined. A gale center is a cold core system. This is a Special kind of tropical cyclone/subtropical system. This is a 1991 unnamed storm like storm. It has a cold/extratropical outside with a hurricane in the middle. But we will never know because it is now moving out of the Gulf stream.
I know what the obi wan effect (tm JB) is...What I'm trying to say is every storm is not the perfect storm...did this storm have reports of 100 foot waves? Was this system orginally a hurricane? Is there widespread major flooding? Was there a movie made about it?
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This article may help you decide what to call the Low off the New England Coast.
..."James Franklin of TPC/NHC pointed out the obvious but sometimes troublesome fact that there are no well-defined boundaries between cyclone types. With regard to energy sources, cyclones come in a continuous spectrum, but forecasters (at least at ) have to pigeonhole them into three categories: tropical, subtropical, or non-tropical (extratropical). In deciding whether a particular storm is tropical or subtropical, James indicates that he would first look at the structure of the wind field. If the highest winds appear to be the result of central core convection, then it would be tropical. If they result from synoptic-scale gradients or forcing, then the system would be subtropical. Thermal structure is also important, but the data to definitively answer that question is often not available. (NOTE: It should be pointed out that, while in some circles the terms subtropical and hybrid are often used synonymously, this tends to not often be the case at . Since its inception in public warning terminology in 1972, the term "subtropical storm" has become increasingly restricted in its application to hybrid-type marine cyclones. In other words, a subtropical cyclone is a hybrid between classical and tropical cyclones, but not all hybrids are considered subtropical storms.)
Jack Beven, also of , states that he considers three main characteristics in deciding whether or not a given system is tropical or subtropical: satellite appearance, amount and behaviour of central convection, and any available information on how frontal a system is. He admits that all three are rather subjective quantities. Chris Landsea of AOML/HRD feels that a tropical cyclone should be called such when there is convection near or over the center of the system (within about one degree of latitude/longitude), it is warm core in the lower troposphere, is non-frontal, and has a relatively small radius of maximum winds (smaller than about 2.5 degrees of latitude/longitude).
David Roth of HPC feels that for classification as a tropical cyclone, a system should have no large dry slots, no cold fronts or stratus clouds, and should have deep central convection. In David's opinion, the (usually) small cyclones sometimes seen in the Atlantic (and also often in the Mozambique Channel) which may contain eye features but have shallow convection and shallow warm cores with cold cores aloft should be classed as subtropical rather than as tropical cyclones.
Commenting also on the topic of classification of tropical cyclones, Rich Henning, a meteorologist at Eglin AFB and a member of the Hurricane Hunters squadron, suggested that perhaps there should be a sliding scale based on the latitude of the system and the time of year.
Rich writes, "For example, for a system at a high latitude in November, there had better be a burst of deep convection at or near the center of the vortex that creates some evidence of a warm core and the establishment of a tighter pressure gradient near the center that can be traced to the convective event, i.e., that can be distinguished from the larger-scale mid-latitude cyclone gradient in which it may be embedded. For lower latitudes and/or when formation is from July to October, this may not be as strictly enforced, especially when cyclogenesis occurs over water that is warmer than or equal to 26.5 C. For cooler water temperatures, I am always skeptical about a system in the absence of deep, persistent convection at or near the vortex core."...
http://mpittweather.com/txt/jun01sum.txt
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/iwtc/Evans4-3.html
Edited by danielw (Sat May 07 2005 08:26 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Excellent link danny. Definitely have to bookmark this one...
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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